US Wages Share of GDI at 75 Year Low

Posted by omgwtfbyobbq 3 days ago

Comments

Comment by zetazzed 3 days ago

One major element in this is the rise of earnings from pass-through income. Self-employed or nearly self-employed individuals who would have been counted as employees of their small businesses 30+ years ago increasingly take "profits" from their business rather than "wages," even though they are the same thing. The "profits" get tax advantages. This makes labor share decline despite dentists, consultants, etc. still doing the same amount of work and taking home the same pretax income. See: https://www.ericzwick.com/labshare/labshare.pdf

Comment by dbdr 3 days ago

By this paper's own conclusion, this phenomenon explains 31.9% of the decrease in recent decades. That's significant, but also means that most of the decrease comes from somewhere else.

Comment by JumpCrisscross 3 days ago

> this phenomenon explains 31.9% of the decrease

Which lines up nicely with 3 out of 5 of the percentage points of increase attributable to corporate profits (out of GDI) being in distributed [1].

[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50239264

Comment by modo_mario 2 days ago

Migration, outsourcing/deindustrialisation, automation, rising inequality (after an insanely cash printing bout during covid went mostly to the top) would be my guess.

Comment by forgetfreeman 3 days ago

Is it though? Self-employed individuals who've set up an umbrella business entity aren't particularly common.

Comment by WarOnPrivacy 3 days ago

> Self-employed individuals who've set up an umbrella business entity aren't particularly common.

I've serviced a lot of small businesses over 35yr of IT (typically deep into operations) and I've never come across it.

Comment by knappe 3 days ago

At the center of their story is a quiet revolution in the American economy: the rise of a particular kind of private business. A few decades ago, these businesses collectively made far less money than Corporate America. But by 2011, they were generating more income than all traditional U.S. corporations combined — and accounting for most of the rise in the share of income flowing to the top "one percent."

Over the previous few decades, this sort of private business had — quite privately — taken over the American business world. In 1980, pass-through businesses generated about one-fifth of all U.S. business income. By 2011, they generated more than half. Move over, Corporate America. Hello, Pass-Through America!

https://www.npr.org/sections/planet-money/2026/09/14/g-s1-14...

Comment by JumpCrisscross 3 days ago

> by 2011, they were generating more income than all traditional U.S. corporations combined

Source?

Comment by sgustard 3 days ago

A source from the linked article: https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/685594

> “Pass-through” businesses like partnerships and S-corporations now generate over half of US business income and account for much of the post-1980 rise in the top-1% income share.

Comment by mlyle 3 days ago

This is a quote of the article he linked:

https://www.npr.org/sections/planet-money/2026/09/14/g-s1-14...

In turn it links the source: https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/685594

Comment by sam1714 3 days ago

Any LLCs and PLLCs (physicians, attorneys, lawyers, accountants, architects, etc.). An owner of a LLC cannot be an employee of it and therefore is pass-through.

Comment by rayiner 3 days ago

Like all law firm partnerships are pass through entities. Law firm partners have a lot of money, but its fundamentally labor income.

Comment by BLKNSLVR 3 days ago

This is purely data with no narrative attached, which is sort of refreshing.

The un-answered question is what is now eating up the percentage that was going to wages?

What are the options? R&D, shareholders, lawyers, advertising/marketing/PR, share buy-backs, political lobbying (cough bribery cough), strategic reserves?

Comment by JumpCrisscross 3 days ago

> what is now eating up the percentage that was going to wages?

Here you go [1].

Wages and salaries are down 0.4 percentage points from ‘24, 0.75 from ‘15 and 5 from 2000 [2].

Corporate profits after taxes are up 5 percentage points from 2000, of which 2 percentage points went to dividend increases and 3 to undistributed profits. (Also of note, private consumption of fixed capital +2pp, same as rental income.)

[1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/release/tables?rid=53&eid=42185 2025

[2] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/release/tables?rid=53&eid=42185&...

Comment by omgwtfbyobbq 3 days ago

The quarterly data is more recent.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/release/tables?rid=53&eid=17636

Comment by skew-aberration 3 days ago

All (the value) of the things produced goes ultimately to either labor (wages), capital (interest), or land (rent) - Adam Smith. (tax being an intermediary for the same).

If wages are down then rent or interest returns are up.

Market interest rates are trending up in recent years but in line with / below long term averages.

So obviously rent is doing the heavy lifting. GFC, housing crisis, etc, are all products of the extreme rents and land speculation.

Where does rent go? It can be consumed (luxury goods, etc) but most of it 'grounds out' in labor and capital through subsequent investments.

So higher share going to rent actually looks like larger luxury consumption by the landowners, more services consumed by them, and (probably most significantly) larger capital investments domestically and internationally - huge AI and semiconductor investments, robotics and EV factory build outs, complicated R&D programs, etc). These go on to employ more laborers globally - with the key change being that the return to laborers within any one investment is historically low.

Money is only an intermediary. It is the flow of goods produced (machines built, technologies developed) and services and resources which really matters.

Comment by adrianN 3 days ago

A portion also goes to fighting entropy. Keeping infrastructure intact for example consumes value just for maintaining the status quo.

Comment by skew-aberration 3 days ago

Technically speaking, maintenance is a capital investment.

Use of some rare natural consumable (lubricating a machine with whale oil?) would still require a) labor b) capital and c) paying rent to whoever owned that slice of nature. So consumption, broadly, may take from nature, but the returns (if there are any) go only to people - as rent, interest, or wages. If there are no returns, then it is just consumption proper.

Comment by xyzzy123 3 days ago

Naively, people have been working for 75 years over the span of the graph to create valuable IP, scalable manufacturing, unique organisational capabilities, partnerships etc.

If capital is being created faster than it degrades or is destroyed, wouldn't we expect its share of income to increase over time?

It's not obvious to me why labour's share should necessarily remain constant as the economy accumulates hard-to-replicate productive assets.

Comment by SwellJoe 3 days ago

Because society breaks down when there is an elite class of people who are so wealthy the law no longer applies to them, while a significant portion of people are on the brink of being homeless, and many more are one health emergency away from it.

Comment by rayiner 3 days ago

The economic accounting doesn’t map nearly into what you think of as “labor” and “capital.” For example, the non-labor share includes things like depreciation: https://taxfoundation.org/blog/capital-is-not-taking-half-of...

Comment by nine_k 3 days ago

Most income gets reinvested; the goal of modern large corporate accounting is to show a huge income, growth of sales, and near-zero profits. I suppose that the large revenues are also at least partly due to financial engineering, through structuring of subsidiaries, etc. Hence wages, which are real costs, look smaller compared to the large amounts of money sloshing around as huge revenues.

Comment by weberer 3 days ago

I don't think you understand the graph. This is what percentage of income comes from wages. So for every dollar that people earned as income on their tax sheet, 42% was listed as coming from wages. The other 58% comes from other sources like non-wage employer compensation, rental income, private business income, etc.

You can see the breakdown of the categories here:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/release/tables?rid=53&eid=42185

Comment by rayiner 3 days ago

The whole pie isn’t dollars reported on tax sheets. It’s Gross Domestic Income: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gross_domestic_income.

Comment by verdverm 3 days ago

there are only two ways to make money - labor and capital - broadly speaking, and continued data points like this one is why the word Oligarchy is increasing in usage... most of us see it and feel it

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?id=GDIA,GDICOMPA,

Comment by testing22321 3 days ago

Wages for the upper tier, but not in the form of wages

Comment by lotrg 3 days ago

> no narrative attached

That's just a style choice; like using "unalived" to mean the same physical state as "dead"

Muricans love to launder their willful and feigned ignorance behind made up terms to appear objective

It's still the same human story behind the words; a minority hordes all the loot and pays goons to shoot hungry people

Comment by done_lurking 3 days ago

> a minority hordes all the loot and pays goons to shoot hungry people

With analysis as generic and shallow as this, I think "muricans" are better off with their willful and feigned ignorance.

Comment by lotrg 2 days ago

[flagged]

Comment by 3 days ago

Comment by tjwebbnorfolk 3 days ago

ok comrade

Comment by lotrg 3 days ago

Oh no fellow American; I am 100% behind our norm of not having to concern myself with your having food, shelter, or healthcare

Don't mistake my point for giving a fuck that you, of all people, do not end up living in box behind a McDonald's; I don't care, text on a screen. :)

I just prefer brevity and absolute candor not empty platitudes and pointless circumlocution

Comment by bediger4000 3 days ago

We know it isn't R&D. That got done by universities, and we're in the process of gutting them.

Comment by HWR_14 3 days ago

Not just universities. Large tech companies have been excellent at funding R&D.

Comment by gonzalohm 2 days ago

Large tech companies have been excellent at claiming that they are doing R&D and claiming tax breaks for that.

Comment by stonogo 3 days ago

This turns out not to be the case.

Comment by HDThoreaun 3 days ago

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Comment by cft 3 days ago

Right, from Wright brothers airplane to modern GPT LLMs founders, they were all university researchers that are now being gutted by Trump:

https://chatgpt.com/share/6adedaac-c650-83e8-bb64-c30c1170fa...

Comment by lotrg 3 days ago

Unless a calamity throws human survivors back to the stone age there can be no future Wright brothers, in the post Tevatron and LHC, James Webb telescope era there will be no new Woz, no new Jobs... 2-3 people in a garage or hanger soldering and welding

Any yet unseen discoveries will require teams of people composing something on the scale of...AI robots and Wolverine like regenerative medicine

And Google and such ...hired PhDs to do that work so they could own it and not have them release it without permission. They weren't hiring basement tinkers.

Look beyond the syntactic totems of power like brand names and logos and it's just soylent green. The contemporary legal and PR gibberish defining ownership and hyping yet another chat app are not real; it's just physics.

Comment by cft 3 days ago

Only 17% of people who laid out LLM transformer foundations between 2017 and 2022 had relevant PhDs. Not that I expect it would sway your faith or stop the downvotes, but just quoting anyway:

https://chatgpt.com/s/t_6adee2ceae408191b155de89259ed240

Comment by lotrg 3 days ago

Lmao "look their own AI says their effort and accomplishments were noble and altruistic; what more do you need?"

...it was their final, most essential command...

Will most def use local models to generate code and frontier to guide that local process but it's obviously a text generator that can be weighted to emit whatever Altman or Dario and the rest of big tech (and their inherent self selecting biological imperative) believe is best for them

Comment by cft 3 days ago

Right, for the important stuff, not this LLM bullshit, people did have either PhDs or came from eminent universities and organizations:

"The EU's common-charger initiative can be traced to Solomon Passy and Gergana Passy, two Bulgarian politicians who proposed it in 2008. Interestingly, Solomon Passy had a PhD in mathematical logic and computer science."

https://chatgpt.com/s/t_6adeeaf8dc348191ba3a89b5262e09d8

Some even had postgraduate studies in philosophy.

Comment by entrope 2 days ago

The fraction is markedly different when one includes compensation in the forms of retirement contributions, insurance and the employer part of payroll taxes: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A4002E1A156NBEA

Comment by resters 3 days ago

<scarcasm>Wait till millions of robotaxis hit the streets, the graph will crater!</sarcasm>

Comment by beebmam 3 days ago

Does this include income like RSUs?

Comment by JumpCrisscross 3 days ago

> Does this include income like RSUs?

Yes [1].

[1] https://www.bea.gov/help/glossary/wages-and-salaries

Comment by 3 days ago

Comment by v3ai 3 days ago

what happened in 1971 . com

Comment by burnt-resistor 2 days ago

Powell memo and the real conspiracy of greed to destroy the middle class.

Comment by marojejian 2 days ago

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