Watch Los Angeles get built, one building at a time (1880–2026)

Posted by rustywasm 18 hours ago

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Comments

Comment by epistasis 17 hours ago

It's amazing how little has changed in recent years in LA. The massive downzoning of the 1980s had its effect: prevent efficient land use, and channel money into the hands of landlords and homeowners from all newcomers.

LA is a ridiculously unaffordable place to live, not because it's nice, but because of an artificial shortage of built space, due to a monopoly on the permission to build.

Comment by slg 14 hours ago

>The massive downzoning of the 1980s...

To put numbers to this for those who aren't aware, LA was zoned for roughly 10 million people in the 1960s and by the 1980s it was zoned for roughly 4 million. It's part of the reason the city has had population growth slow to a crawl. It was decided some 40 plus years ago that LA should stay under 4 million people, so it has even til today. But the number of people who want to live in LA is constantly growing, so housing prices continue to rise and as a result lower income people are slowly but surely being pushed out of their homes and out of the city entirely.

Comment by dv_dt 25 minutes ago

That 10M is a theoretical back of the napkin number. The city would have had to make multiple major infrastructure improvements, including major public transportation improvements, as well as secure major new sources of water for that to occur. To even accommodate the current modern number of people, there had to be fairly aggressive public water conservation regulations and campaigns - which amazingly did keep the water consumption fairly static. But if you were to more than double the residents, it's really not clear where the water would come from.

Comment by lwansbrough 14 hours ago

Same story in San Francisco of course, and the rest of the US pretty much aside from a few cities in recent years.

Comment by TomGarden 13 hours ago

At least we have parking lots. Ah, so many parking lots

Comment by hackernud3s 11 hours ago

There's still Houston but that's it as far as I know.

Comment by pjerem 7 hours ago

My impression of LA when I got there was that I would never live there, even in the nicest spots. Which confirms my intuition that the richest have no taste.

Also it’s an American city made for cars so it doesn’t help me to like it.

Comment by stasomatic 45 minutes ago

I've lived in LA on and off for over a decade cumulatively. If Woodland Hills, Tarzana, Burbank, North Hollywood count as "L.A." :)

I love the climate and nature there, besides the fires. Ocean, lakes, mountains, deserts, all within 1-3 hour drive.

It is a dehumanizing city to commute in, and is expensive, but it's the best one I have lived in (NYC, Brooklyn, NJ cities, Las Vegas, Charlotte, Miami) and I want to return when finances allow.

Comment by enopod_ 5 hours ago

Interesting, I did not know that. Sure helped create the massive urban sprawl that LA is today, I mean it's basically one city all the way to San Bernardino, almost 100 km to the east.

Comment by kfarr 17 hours ago

And don’t forget prop 13, there’s negative incentive for property to change hands and develop.

Comment by bingohbangoh 14 hours ago

Do people really think that if we revoked Prop 13 that other taxes would go down with the new money from property taxes?

Or do we think that property taxes would go up while other taxes stay put?

This feels like the argument at play when people criticize Prop 13. Not saying it’s good but California hasn’t ever cut taxes meaningfully and I’m not convinced raising property taxes would solve anything. California would still be expensive to live in.

Comment by andrewmutz 13 hours ago

Multiple good things would happen without prop 13:

People would move more instead of being locked in to a low effective property tax.

The tax burden would be much fairer: instead of the police and schools being funded by newcomers, everyone would be contributing their fair share to fund the city, instead of the longest tenure residents mooching off the rest of us.

Unproductive use of land would be discouraged. If a tract became highly desirable, it would be expensive to let it sit in an unproductive form

Cities could raise taxes as high as their residents wanted them to be, instead of being limited by the opinions of non-residents. Some people want to have better funded police and schools, and local government would actually be allowed to deliver that. Citizens who didnt want to live in expensive cities could vote with their feet to cheaper towns.

Comment by dv_dt 2 hours ago

"People would move more instead of being locked in to a low effective property tax." - this just means that older and retired people would get kicked out of stable living situations, driven by property tax assessments which are often driven by real estate market boom/bust cycles. And housing prices would be just as high as with prop 13.

The bad part about prop 13, is that it never should have applied to anything other than primary residences of people. Having it apply to rental & commercial properties is what warps the market.

Cities should be cutting their police budgets - most small towns have nearly 50% of the budgets tied up in police. All while there has been a multi-decade decrease in crime.

Comment by anonymousiam 11 hours ago

Under Proposition 19, some people can still move without penalty, as long as they're over age 55, and move to a new property located in California.

https://www.ocassessor.gov/tax-saving-programs/savings-senio...

Comment by bloppe 13 hours ago

I've never heard anybody say anything like that when criticizing prop 13. It usually has more to do with housing prices and the fact that 2 people with the same home value should pay the same in property taxes. If you wanted to create a hereditary landed gentry, it would be hard to come up with a better policy to achieve that than prop 13.

Comment by 12 hours ago

Comment by jrmg 13 hours ago

To keep tax revenue equal, property taxes for those who purchased recently would go down, and property taxes for those who’d purchased in the past would go up.

The housing market would become more liquid because people would move out of homes if their values rose too much and they could no longer afford the taxes. This would be a shock initially, but over time it would just be seen as part of life like it is in other areas: mostly, empty nesters would downsize to a cheaper, smaller house with lower taxes. Gentrification might be more problematic though.

In practice, probably some phased rebalancing would have to happen to avoid the sudden economic shock, but, politics notwithstanding, it’s not crazy to suggest it could be done and that the end state might be overall ‘better’ for most people. The end state would be how property taxes work almost everywhere else.

Comment by tikhonj 11 hours ago

Prop 13 massively distorts the real estate market and creates some strong incentives for home owners. Those distortions and incentives would go away regardless of whether abolishing Prop 13 led to a net increase or decrease in total taxes.

Comment by groundzeros2015 14 hours ago

It would increase liquidity in the housing market.

Comment by syspec 15 hours ago

Do you own your home? Here in Ca? You know that property tax is 1.4ish % and goes up by 2% a year, pretty much no matter what?

On a 1.5M house, that's starting at 17K a year and each year it goes up 2%, so it compounds.

That's 17k a year Just to stay in your own home.

People who don't pay property taxes here in ca, act like prop 13 means zero property taxes

Comment by isubkhankulov 14 hours ago

Yes, your property tax is high ($17k) because of prop 13 - you are effectively subsidizing others who have sat on their residential and commercial property for 20-30+ years who are paying 25-50% of what you pay for any similar property in the same calendar year!

Your property tax goes up by 2% of your , guessing (relatively recent?) purchase price, and theirs goes up 2% of a much smaller base due to prop 13.

They have no incentive to move, downgrade. And they often use trusts to pass this tax base down to their kids. It’s feels like icky European feudalism.

Again i’m emphasizing that this goes for both residential and commercial buildings.

Comment by fatcatsbestcats 8 hours ago

I agree with everything you’ve said, but one clarification: you don’t even need a trust to pass the tax break down to your kid when you die. Sure, a trust can streamline that process, but it’s not required. At least everyone lucky enough to inherit benefits, not just those whose parents had the foresight (and the means) to create a trust.

Comment by cucumber3732842 14 hours ago

> It’s feels like icky European feudalism.

Pairs nicely with the permitting processes that basically boil down to "thou shalt pay the guild"

Comment by jedberg 12 hours ago

> Do you own your home? Here in Ca?

Yes and yes.

And I pay 10K less a year than my neighbor for the same value house. And I pay 10K more a year than my other neighbor.

I get a huge advantage from Prop 13, but I still think it needs to get replaced with a much fairer system.

Comment by 7 hours ago

Comment by dbmikus 15 hours ago

That is close to the average rate of inflation, though. Doesn't seem unreasonable to me.

Comment by codemac 15 hours ago

They go up much more than 2% in literally every other state, California is the cheapest place to own property for >10 years.

You can argue against property taxes entirely, but Prop 13 definitely means that families, businesses, and all property owners work very hard to never sell, never reassess, and never change their tax rate.

Comment by stouset 14 hours ago

While I think the goal of Prop 13 is laudable, a few reforms would cut some of the biggest downsides: it should be be for primary residences, where the named owner is the primary resident.

This would eliminate the tax break for commercial property, prevent it from being abused for second homes, and avoid the property trust shenanigans that have allowed some properties to change hands without a reset in the taxes paid.

Comment by lokar 12 hours ago

I’m not sure why people are downvoting (without commenting), but I agree.

The main selling point of prop13 was a real problem: rapidly increasing values were driving up taxes so fast that long time residents (of modest means) were being forced out.

I don’t think it’s entirely unreasonable to have some policy that attempts to protect people living in their primary residence from rapid tax increases they can’t afford.

Comment by tikhonj 10 hours ago

It really isn't. You could—and we did!—solve that problem by letting people defer property tax payments or borrow against their equity. California literally has a property tax postponment program for seniors. If we just wanted to keep people from being pushed out of their homes by rising house prices, we'd just expand that program.

The point of Prop 13 is to let people have their cake and eat it too: you get to keep the equity you gain from increased housing prices, but not pay the property tax that comes with them.

Comment by tzs 8 hours ago

With postponement you then can get the opposite problem of people getting stuck in their houses because if they sold they would have a huge deferred tax.

The approach in Washington works well. There is a senior property tax exemption based on age and disposable income. To qualify in King County (where Seattle is) in 2027 you need to be 61+ and have a household disposable income under $101k.

That gets you (1) a freeze on the assessed value for taxes equal to the current assessed value, and (2) an exemption from the statewide school tax and from "excess levies" (basically city and county levies that are voted on).

If income is under between $76k and $89k they also exclude from tax 45% of your assessed value or $70k, whichever is larger, but not more than $200k.

If income is below $76k they exclude 80% of your assessed value or $80k, which is larger.

The income levels are based on median county household income so vary from county to county.

Disposable income is basically everything that goes into AGI plus a list of other things (like any Social Security that is not already in AGI). There are also a bunch of deductions, mostly medical including Medicare premiums, with a $7500 deduction you can elect to take instead of taking any of those specific deduction. Income includes all adults living in the house.

In my county the levies that are not "excess levies" are county roads, sheriff, conservation, mental health, veterans relief, fire district stuff, public utility district stuff, and regional library. The "excess levies" are a couple of school district levies. Overall the excess levies are about 28% of the property taxes in my county. The statewide school levy that is exempt is another 10%, so the bottom line is that the property tax rate for seniors under the income limit is about 60% of the non-senior rate.

Comment by Schiendelman 11 hours ago

So people were getting so wealthy that they couldn't pay the property tax on their wealth. Yes. The problem is, if you let them decide to tax other people instead of themselves for the spending they themselves approve, they will.

Comment by lokar 11 hours ago

I don’t think you read my comment very carefully

Comment by Schiendelman 9 hours ago

What if I did?

Comment by MarkusQ 11 hours ago

That makes it sound like the increase was due to some inexorable natural force. California's per capita budget is over twice Arizona's, and they're running a huge deficit on top of that. If taxes are too high, cut taxes. If that means you need to cut spending, cut spending. But don't play "hey, let's tax the other guy!" games and expect that to work.

Comment by Schiendelman 11 hours ago

A lot of this also comes down to prohibiting growth. In Seattle, every time we build a new building, everyone else's property tax payments decrease. High growth years lead to lower bills. The same would work in California, they just don't build much of anything because they've made it nearly impossible to.

Comment by fc417fc802 5 hours ago

You're not wrong, but the irony of positioning Seattle as having good zoning policies is almost unbearable.

Comment by Schiendelman 2 minutes ago

Oh, I'm with you. I think this needs to be overturned wholesale. Seattle is bad. Still better than California.

Comment by lokar 11 hours ago

Prop13 was a big tax cut. The people behind it were minimal government conservative libertarians.

And the state did slash spending in the years following. In particular funding for the university system was hit very hard.

Comment by MarkusQ 9 hours ago

They did not slash spending. At most the rate of increase slowed down for a year or so before continuing to rise at an even faster rate.

https://dof.ca.gov/about-us/history/state-budgets/

Comment by refurb 11 hours ago

This is a solved problem.

Let people defer increases until their house is sold. This what many states do.

It’s seems insane that we “protect” people whose property taxes are going up because their home is getting so valuable

Comment by skywhopper 3 hours ago

You realize government services that support that home cost money, right? You act like if you own your home that your living there doesn’t impose any costs on your neighbors.

Comment by tikhonj 10 hours ago

I do own a house in California and I pay closer to $30k in property taxes. The previous owners of my house paid $7k. My neighbor—who has a bigger, more expensive house!—pays $9k.

It's pretty clear that this kind of tax policy is going to totally mess up the housing market. It's not the only factor, but it's a big one.

Comment by MikeNotThePope 14 hours ago

I have a dumb question. What is the eventual of efficient land use? Say we bulldoze a bunch of single family homes and get 10x as dense. Now we have 10x as many people per square kilometer. Is that an efficient use of land? Will there be someone saying at 10x population density that it's an inefficient use of space? If yes, what would they propose instead?

Comment by xmprt 14 hours ago

Why are you acting like there isn't a definition of inefficient. I think "underutilized" is a pretty good definition.

The fact that every single person has a small private park in their front and backyards that's enjoyed maybe a couple hours per day at most is pretty wasteful - if it was shared the utilization would go way up and space used would be way down. Same goes for all the parking lots needed to facilitate car traffic - if we used more efficient/shared options like buses or trams then the parking lots that sit empty most of the day could be replaced with more businesses or houses that allow people to live closer to the services that they need every day.

Meanwhile, we have big bottlenecks in our city downtowns where all the density is packed. Spread that out and things get a lot more efficient - your commute probably goes down too because you can live closer to work. Suburbs don't work without a productive city near them - otherwise they're just rural areas.

Comment by epistasis 10 hours ago

There's a really great way to think about this that doesn't get enough attention: land rents.

Some plots of land are very valuable due to their location, what you can access, etc. It's pretty straightforward to find out what the monthly cost of land is in any area, either from simple regressions on property values, or empty lot sales, etc.

When the land rent starts to excessively exceed average income of number of households allowed to live on that plot of land, that's pretty inefficient.

Owning land is society letting you say to other people: you're not allowed here. When we restrict land us so that people can not figure out their best use of it, eg 4 families building townhouses together, we start to restrict access to opportunity and basic economic freedom.

Comment by mitxela 14 hours ago

this is the same fallacy of saying there's no point getting a 10x faster server because you'll just have 10x more load and your site will still be slow.

Comment by Schiendelman 11 hours ago

If you're really interested: as density increases, population growth decreases. High density places become a sink for populations from elsewhere. You end up reaching a regional equilibrium, where some of the lowest density places start emptying out entirely. Japan is a great example of this, small towns there disappear regularly, as Tokyo grows. Suburban life around Tokyo remains very stable as the center increases and edges decrease.

Comment by esikich 14 hours ago

Yes, dense cities are more efficient in every way compared to sprawl. Can you articulate what is confusing about this?

Comment by 21asdffdsa12 4 hours ago

There must be a incredible incentive to build "pod-housing" basically take a overpriced suburban home, excavate out into the depths and build sleeper-coffin like homes, then in the morning, its 3 minivan of shuttleb-busses going "to schools" - and in the evening back.

Basically build affordable housing illegally

Comment by WD-42 10 hours ago

I was just down there and saw multiple massive development projects going on. Like huge new neighborhoods.

Of course they aren’t in LA proper. But it seems like people that want to live in SoCal want the suburbs. You talk like LA is this artificially small place except that it’s more like a neighborhood in the middle of sprawl at an almost unimaginable scale.

Not saying any of this is good. In fact it’s terrible. Personally I feel like the entire LA metro area is about as close as you can get to a real paradise lost on earth. Maybe one of the most naturally beautiful places on the planet, bulldozed over for a maze of 6 lane uncrossable suburban streets and cookie cutter McMansions.

Comment by epistasis 10 hours ago

It only seems like that because every other type of housing is literally banned.

If apartments, even small buildings, were legal in LA, they'd be building them everywhere and they'd immediately fill up.

The Mayor, Karen Bass, accidentally screwed up and made affordable possible to build, as in allowing it to get through the gauntlet of approvals. This resulted in a massive amount of extremely costly affordable housing to get built, merely because the approval couldn't be stopped arbitrarily:

https://www.pacificresearch.org/la-mayor-slowly-dismantles-h...

Ift that sort of project approval was opened up to not only affordable housing, but also for-profit housing, there would be a massive shift in the type of new housing in the area.

Comment by gradus_ad 16 hours ago

To be fair NYC has taken the opposite approach and rents are extremely high there as well

Comment by kccqzy 15 hours ago

NYC has had so much downzoning too. The icon of the city, the Empire State Building, now has a floor area ratio about double what’s permitted in that district. Many historical buildings, just like ESB, simply could not have been built today under current zoning regulation.

The city’s original 1916 zoning regulation permitted a hypothetical maximum population of 55 million; after WWII the new zoning regulations essentially limited hypothetical maximum population to a little more than 10 million if everything is fully developed. Recent initiatives like City of Yes did too little to reverse the trend.

Comment by returningfory2 15 hours ago

NYC zoning is less limiting than LA, but still extremely limiting.

Comment by Schiendelman 11 hours ago

By what measure are you saying they've taken the opposite approach? It seems to me their approach has been nearly identical, just a little less restrictive.

Comment by tokioyoyo 14 hours ago

Everything has a gigantic depends* on it when it comes to RE. People want to find one reason why things are bad, but it is always a big bag of mixed things.

When I was in Vancouver, people kept saying if we got rid of rent control, houses will be built, rent will come down. But houses are expensive to build, and they need to make money asap in the “exit economy”. They won’t come up easily, unless they make it cheap to build, which isn’t happening. Rents just started coming down, but so far insignificant amount (I just checked, a place I paid $2500 for in 2019, is going for $3300 after the decrease!), and demand curbing had more influence on it. Personally, I think we shouldn’t force people to move to a different area because rents skyrocketed. I’m all in support of getting paid out though.

People look at Tokyo, and talk about “less-zoned build whatever, and no rent control, thus more or less affordable”. Which also depends*. YoY rents are going up by 10-15% right now, even more in some areas. It’s unreasonable for a good chunk of residents. Speculation is big influx of money from China. But you can actually challenge the rent increase in a good chunk of cases. So it’s a pseudo-rent control.

I’m not saying something is right or wrong, just saying everything has multiple layers of problems.

Comment by Schiendelman 11 hours ago

It's simpler than you're implying. Vancouver, like most cities, has dramatically limited what land you can build on. More than half the city is restricted to nothing larger than individual houses.

Tokyo, similarly, has hit the limit of what they allow to be built under the highest density of their stepped national zoning levels.

Comment by oblio 16 hours ago

Nah, watch this if you have time: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kpK5HiCKfgU

At least watch this money shot: https://youtu.be/kpK5HiCKfgU?si=YNQBxsn15NxGdQQ0&t=272 (wait for the video to reveal the construction years)

As Max Fisher puts it: American cities have been frozen in amber.

Comment by epistasis 10 hours ago

This is such an amazing video. It collapses about three years of my casual research into housing down into just a few minutes. Thanks for sharing.

Comment by golem14 14 hours ago

There is also a completely unreasonable shortage of water for a much bigger city.

Comment by wdr1 14 hours ago

I've lived on the westside of LA for ~20 years, so one secret I like to let people in on: there's no water shortage. There's a literal ocean of it. I can see it right out my window.

And all that it takes to turn seawater into potable freshwater is energy.

We don't have a water problem. We have an energy problem.

For all of LA County, it would take 500–750 MW each year to use seawater for all our freshwater needs.

Or put another, with a single nuclear power plant, we would solve all LA's freshwater needs -- forever.

Comment by thrance 13 hours ago

You don't have an energy problem, you have a political problem. Fresh water is wasted on thirsty plants destined for agriculture (like alfalfa), by rich farmers who inherited water rights put into law ages ago. It's very simple to solve water usage in California, it just requires a governor that has a tiny amount of grit and cuts into their water rights.

It's crazy how to some, building a whole nuclear reactor and dozens of desalination plants seems like a simpler solution than making a couple of very wealthy farmers a bit angry for a while. Capital really is all-powerful in the States, it even holds power in the very minds of its citizens.

Comment by cucumber3732842 3 hours ago

Your comment is a great example of the sort of zero sum ignorance that gets us where we are.

Yeah, you can always use state violence to take from one group and give to another but that's less than zero sum because it costs you use of state violence which isn't cheap and must be expensively maintained.

You might make things fairer doing that but you won't make them better overall. At some point for things to actually get better overall, for the pie to get bigger, you must actually build something for someone. If not a nuclear powered desalination plant then it will be something else.

Comment by thrance 3 hours ago

> You might make things fairer doing that but you won't make them better overall.

Huh, yes it will? You don't need state violence to reduce wealthy farmers' water rights from 10B gallons per year to 8B, which will instantly free up water for others, more important uses. Their quality of life won't decrease if they have to switch a few plots from alfalfa to wheat, if that's what you're afraid of.

> for the pie to get bigger, you must actually build something for someone

I dislike how you just assumed that because I prefer a simple political solution over an over-engineered decades-long project on this one issue, I must be opposed to all new infrastructure. In this case, there's plenty of water to go around.

> state violence which isn't cheap and must be expensively maintained.

1, you don't need much (or any) state violence to keep a few rich families from stealing water, and 2, how is that more expensive that a fucking nuclear plant??? And what about the ecological cost? Nuclear is cleaner that most energies, but it's not free. And nuclear capacity could be put to much better use than offsetting inefficient use of the commons.

> Yeah, you can always use state violence to take from one group and give to another

Yeah, that's exactly what those problematic water rights are achieving: they take most of the available fresh water and give it to a tiny minority that benefits immensely from it. I'm suggesting we improve on that.

> Your comment is a great example of the sort of zero sum ignorance that gets us where we are.

I just can't get over how arrogant and mean this line is. The pie is continually growing, the only thing preventing people from getting a slice is that capital owners keep it all to themselves. We didn't get to this situation because the people is too greedy and impairing oligarchs from building stuff. It's quite the opposite.

We have bloated contractors receiving billions for very little in exchange, and in this situation, people like you are suggesting we don't solve this very simple resource allocation problem and instead shovel a few more billions of public money to the private sector for completely superfluous infrastructure we won't catch a glimpse of before 2048.

Comment by cucumber3732842 59 minutes ago

>Huh, yes it will? You don't need state violence to reduce wealthy farmers' water rights from 10B gallons per year to 8B, which will instantly free up water for others, more important uses. Their quality of life won't decrease if they have to switch a few plots from alfalfa to wheat, if that's what you're afraid of.

Why develop local gas fields and solar when we can just invade nations with oil?

The only way to win sustainably is to make the resource, whatever it is, more accessible or less needed, somehow.

A few billion on this or that is pocket change compared to the economic and political cost of political policy with very obvious and well defined classes of losers. Taking things isn't free even if done domestically.

>1, you don't need much (or any) state violence to keep a few rich families from stealing water

Yes, you do. It will just be spent on schools to tell the kids how to think and carrot/stick grant programs to financially incentivize compliance among the municipalities and subsidies with strings attached and inspectors to verify these things and studies and surveys and all manner of other stuff like that rather than bombs and missiles but you absolutely need to spend untold sums of money to enforce policy that is "bad" for whoever you're enforcing it upon.

>I just can't get over how arrogant and mean this line is.

I'm jaded beyond caring about such things at this point.

>The pie is continually growing, the only thing preventing people from getting a slice is that capital owners keep it all to themselves.

>We have bloated contractors receiving billions for very little in exchange, and in this situation, people like you are suggesting we don't solve this very simple resource allocation problem and instead shovel a few more billions of public money to the private sector for completely superfluous infrastructure we won't catch a glimpse of before 2048.

I want you to do the math on what the capital owners actually make. Sure, they're filthy rich and putting their thumb on the scale in various bad ways but the rent they take is peanuts compared to the money just pissed away on goods and services that are far outside of whatever the critical path is.

For every dollar the CEO or board members or other large shareholder of some megacorp are paid the megacorp pays tens or hundreds to the "bloat" which you rightly identify as a problem in a lot of these project.

To use a metaphor, paying the football coach and the chancellor less isn't gonna fix the price of a college that has a non-teaching non-researching administrator for every two students.

Would putting the bloat into the public sector somehow make it less wasteful? Of course not.

At the end of the day we need to find a way to reduce the bloat and waste because the bloat and waste are not only why the nuclear desalination plant (or whatever) looks expensive and unattractive, it's also why the farmers care to hold onto the water. If pivoting was cheaper/easier/more reliable than perpetually fighting they would.

The past 50yr of regulation has been the kind of quasi centrally planned financial tomfoolery to incentivize the "right thing" (for who's definition?) and it's worked so poorly here we are in these comments discussing how LA has stagnated to the financial detriment of most there. No, I don't think "just one more centrally planned tweak" is gonna fix it whether we're tweaking water or something else.

Comment by 19 minutes ago

Comment by jedberg 12 hours ago

It's not only energy though. Desalination takes space, and you have to do something with the salt. Last I saw, to have enough DeSal capacity for all of California, you'd have to replace every beach with DeSal plants to have enough capacity, and then you'd still have a salt problem.

You could put the salt on boats and dump it back much further out in the ocean, but that too takes energy.

Comment by epistasis 10 hours ago

Dense, newer housing needs a lot less water. If Los Angeles had densified rather than sprawling into the Inland Empire, etc. overall water usage would be far lower.

As it is, water usage in Los Angeles has had flat water usage for decades, even as its population grew by over a million people.

By downzoning so much, Los Angeles got the worst of all worlds: higher water usage, unaffordable housing, and unbelievably bad traffic because everybody has to drive such massive distances to the job centers.

Downzoning is an environmental disaster compared to the alternative, like allowing factories to dump their pollution into rivers type of disaster.

Comment by lokar 12 hours ago

CA has droughts, but not water shortages. Most of the water goes to highly inefficient and low value farming.

Comment by golem14 7 hours ago

Sure, but without that farming, how would we get our almond milk lattes?

Comment by kristopolous 17 hours ago

This is more like the construction date of buildings that have survived. Some early neighborhoods (like palms) have been completely replaced building by building so they really appear as dark here when they weren't. It had a downtown in the 1890s but all those buildings are gone. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palms,_Los_Angeles#/media/File...

it's basically this data: https://portal.assessor.lacounty.gov/ through this portal https://data.lacity.org/

Comment by rustywasm 16 hours ago

Exactly this -- This is more like the construction date of buildings that have survived. Everything demolished, burned, or replaced is invisible.

Probably should put that front and center.

Comment by blululu 10 hours ago

Yes. The description is quite misleading. The fact that it is simply an overlay of the current map is also misleading. Looking at the west side, it completely skips the canals period of Venice. Marina Del Rey evolved considerably into its current form. Ballona creek was only dammed in the 30s. Etc.

Comment by 3RTB297 9 hours ago

Also noticeable as the first buildings show up - each one isolated and miles from anyone else? Generally not how human habitation clusters up, even if it was all farms to start.

Comment by kristopolous 8 hours ago

this is the best resource I know of

https://mil.library.ucsb.edu/ap_indexes/FrameFinder/

It genuinely is much more sporadic then you think. 1 or 2 houses, then empty blocks with streets there, then 1 more, then some building ...

For a modern version, look up california city - modest suburban homes respectably maintained with cars in the driveway surrounded by endless nothing.

I have to presume there's some people that look at this and say "wow, this is perfect".

Comment by wathef 16 hours ago

Los Angeles had the largest public transportation network in the United States until we paved over it[1]. We had over 1,300 miles! You could've gone from Huntington Beach to Downtown and all the way up to Burbank. You can see many of the maps of Los Angeles at the public library[2]. I don't live there anymore, love that place though.

[1] - https://www.pbssocal.org/shows/lost-la/from-rail-to-roads-an...

[2] - https://www.lapl.org/research-guides/maps/maps-los-angeles

Comment by rustywasm 15 hours ago

My mom (who is 97) has a vivid memory of seeing FDR in 1935 -- the whole extended family took the the Red Car from Compton to downtown to see his motorcade. She remembered the electric trams worked really well, especially for folks without much money.

Comment by davidw 15 hours ago

> worked really well, especially for folks without much money

That's probably part of the reason they got rid of them. You still see that argument used against transit: "it will bring _____ to our part of town".

Comment by bean469 2 hours ago

The main reason as far as I'm aware was due to intense lobbying from car companies. It makes absolute sense from the perspective of Ford, etc. to have alternative modes of transport be removed from the streets

Comment by khazhoux 14 hours ago

The trams went away because of cars and buses, not because of racism.

Comment by cobbzilla 11 hours ago

It can be both. Highways didn’t get built for poor folks, but did get built right through many of their neighborhoods.

Comment by WD-42 10 hours ago

Fun fact: this is the plot of the movie “Who Framed Roger Rabbit”

Comment by lokar 12 hours ago

It’s making a comeback

Comment by ZeWaka 18 hours ago

Bit misleading since it only shows properties still standing, seemingly. So the older periods look extremely empty.

Comment by sgt 17 hours ago

This is one of those 'hey, I can vibe code this in a weekend' projects. Just look at how the AI decided to the entire map in dark mode, making it nearly impossible to tell the ocean and the land apart.

Comment by rustywasm 16 hours ago

Yes, great point. What was torn down, burned, destroyed, etc. along the way isn't here. This is the surviving city, not the city as it was.

Comment by incanus77 12 hours ago

As others have pointed out, this is more about the age of existing buildings than the construction of the city, but it's pretty neat.

About ten years ago when we were working on Mapbox GL, I did a mobile-native viz like this to show off the vector tile tech. The blog post is still up (thankfully) which has a good bit of info on the data processing pipeline as well, ranging from Shapefile to GeoJSON to vector tiles on the backend to Swift on the frontend:

https://medium.com/mapbox/visualizing-an-entire-citys-buildi...

I always loved mirroring a phone to a large TV and showing this off at 60FPS. It was such fun tech to work on.

Comment by neilv 17 hours ago

A complementary view of one point in time is the LA Noire video game's attempt to recreate a (condensed and simplified) 1940s LA environment, with 3D architecture, cars, and ongoing expansion.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OGPh2AcmG2A

The storytelling atmosphere is somber film-noire-ish, but there's simultaneously a feeling of national prosperity and potential for many (with notable unjust exceptions), like I think fewer people feel in more recent decades.

Would also be interesting to try to convey that kind of change over time, in an immersive way.

Comment by rustywasm 16 hours ago

Did not think of that - yes that is a really interesting idea. Totally different way with interacting with data. I'm going to ponder that...

Comment by ericzawo 18 hours ago

Having moved to LA this february, the sprawl is really something I had no true appreciation for until I moved here for real, and tried to run errands across town. It's a gigantic, beautiful, complicated place.

Comment by rustywasm 17 hours ago

One the experiences for me that never gets old is coming in to LAX (flight path East to West) and the sprawl just goes on forever. The other crazy thing that 60% of the population speak a language other than English at home. So I think it has one of the best options for cuisine in the world, because it's all there (somewhere!)

Comment by lokar 12 hours ago

A family member lives near Pasadena. We asked if they wanted to go to a restaurant near Santa Monica. They sort of scoffed at the idea of going over to the west side unless it was really important.

Comment by foco_tubi 9 minutes ago

To be fair, that is an hour-long trip in the best case scenario

Comment by WD-42 10 hours ago

I think a not insignificant amount of it is literally just pavement too. Absurdly wide roads and parking lots everywhere. It’s a bit of a hellscape really.

Comment by nunez 13 hours ago

All the way to almost San Diego, which is insane

Comment by asdff 17 hours ago

The density at least means you don't have to really run across town for much and can stay within a certain radius for most all your needs and wants. I mean look at the density of costcos alone. Many other metros might have 1 or 2 for the entire area. Then again a lot of other metros you basically can drive end to end in 25 miles.

Comment by oblio 16 hours ago

I'm confused. LA doesn't strike me as dense. How dense can you get with huge areas of single family homes?

Comment by ianburrell 15 hours ago

LA is the densest major urban area in the country. The MSA isn't dense cause it includes all of Los Angeles County which is half desert and mountains. But the built up area beats Chicago and New York cause it has consistent, medium suburban density, 7400 people per sq mi. The others have dense city, New York City is 29,000 people per sq mi, but the far suburbs drop off.

Comment by 14 hours ago

Comment by asdff 15 hours ago

8200/sqmi on average. Even the single family home areas punch above their weight compared to the rest of the country because lots are mostly only 50ft wide and most all build-able land is put to some sort of use already.

Comment by mullingitover 15 hours ago

It's a bunch of cats (mid-sized, and generally mid all-around, cities) fighting under a blanket. The history of the place is a reaction against New York, where the city is dense and had a bunch of super tall buildings. LA, as a region, said "well we don't want that and enacted a bunch of building codes to hamstring any single city in the region from potentially being a successful, mature urban center.

Pretty infuriating to visit Barcelona recently and see that there was a perfect example of good urban planning sitting right there for decades that LA could've simply copied. In the long run this region is simply incapable of maintaining its infrastructure with its tax base, even today you can see it starting to collapse.

Comment by tcdent 18 hours ago

I did a project recently where I extracted every Los Angeles building permit record for a property and was able to look at the evolution of its infrastructure and tenancy over time by embedding the permit documents into an image-based embedding model. Could be an interesting way to incorporate more granularity of the history of properties over time, although it dramatically increases the scope of data processed.

Comment by computomatic 17 hours ago

Interesting idea. Is there a practical way to obtain those permit records at scale?

Comment by tcdent 17 hours ago

I had an LLM reverse engineer the API protocol of LADBS and extract the content I wanted. Wether that scales from one property to many (rate limits for one) I don't know, but I didn't encounter anything in the thousands I extracted.

Comment by djmips 18 hours ago

I noticed most of the tall buildings are sixties to eighties. Some more info about that here. https://www.pbssocal.org/shows/artbound/a-brief-history-of-l...

Comment by rustywasm 16 hours ago

Thank you! Great link!

And here is one that is just fun to watch because of Huell Howser --

Tallest Building | Visiting with Huell Howser https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ziEDhCPjOQ

Comment by tomjakubowski 15 hours ago

Wikipedia has a nice visualization of the history of LA's tallest buildings.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_tallest_buildings_in_L...

Comment by toyg 17 hours ago

They paved paradise, and put up a parking lot.

Comment by mag7269 17 hours ago

Paradise? LA was a big giant horrible underdeveloped wasteland in Spanish/Mexican times which, at the time in 1849, had 1,600 residents. Most of them had a largely pastoral life and life was brutal there.

LA under US rule is the prime example of what industrialized people can do to a place that lacked nearly everything of what it is at this moment: a world-class city.

Objectively, if it had stayed under Mexican rule, it’d resemble Yuma at best or Tecate at worst. I should know, my family lineage goes back to that era to both sides of the border.

Comment by toyg 16 hours ago

One's "underdeveloped wasteland" is someone else's untouched paradise. Particularly someone like Joni Mitchell.

Comment by Hnrobert42 16 hours ago

Was it that a big, giant, horrible wasteland because it was undeveloped? That is, was there something bad about it other than being undeveloped? Personally, I love living in the city AND land in its natural state.

Also, GP was quoting a song lyric.

Comment by rustywasm 16 hours ago

I think the best intro to LA is Cadillac Desert by Marc Reisner (it's really about the entire West and its relationship to water, but I think the first few chapters explain LA better than many other books.)

Comment by thisismyopinion 17 hours ago

Funny. It's concrete hell.

Comment by esseph 16 hours ago

It's part of a very popular song from the 70s by Joni Mitchell called "Big Yellow Taxi".

Counting Crows did a cover in 2002.

Comment by lotsofpulp 17 hours ago

Is there an alternative if 13 million people want to live somewhere?

Comment by toyg 16 hours ago

Somewhat sadly, the reason a lot of the ancestors of those 13 millions moved there was that they wanted an unpaved paradise.

Unfortunately, humans do not know restraint.

Comment by socalgal2 13 hours ago

Interesting visualization. I feel like it's misleading though because the presentation shows only Los Angeles City boundaries, not the area in general. LA City has that strange vertical shaft down the the port so the city could keep the taxes from the port, but the visualization shows the rest of the area as empty, which of course it is not. It also excludes Orange County, Riverside County, and the whole area north, the San Fernando Valley, and those all arguably are just as important to the story. In the end, I think the visualization ends up being a net negative in it's current form since it's very misleading

Comment by thomasfl 3 hours ago

This shows not only how highly inefficient the land use is in LA, it also shows when it started happening. Towns that were planned before cars were introduced, have a much more efficient use of land. I.e. less space used for roads, but more greenery and the same amount of people and businesses. Barcelona and Paris was planned and built around 70 years before cars become commonplace. The city of the future is built around peoples quality of life and what is good for the economy, except the car industry. US car industry is slowly dying anyway, so the US should start making the country just as attractive to live in as Europe. Disclaimer: I am the founder of the architectural uprising in Norway.

Comment by CorvusCrypto 16 hours ago

Wow this is inspiring. I would love to see a very similar visualization for Stockholm, Sweden. I think there is a beauty in seeing a summarized history of expansion, and in reality I can't help but think this is a very fast population boom. One I am sure most metro areas would struggle with. Makes a lot of criticism of LA planning in hindsight feel very unfair.

Comment by esseph 16 hours ago

LA county has about the same population as Sweden.

Comment by enjoyyourlife 18 hours ago

Nice! Would be better if it shows the difference between the ocean and other land

Comment by suncemoje 18 hours ago

Agree, I personally also think dark mode never goes well with a map-based app...

Comment by slg 17 hours ago

Especially with this sort of map regarding this specific city. For example, Beverly Hills is a separate municipality contained entirely within the borders of Los Angeles. It appears here like an empty black space no different from the ocean, lakes, mountains, and parks also scattered around the city. The styling of this map makes it impossible to tell if an area is truly undeveloped and if so, why. Throw in the way there appears to be arbitrary selection criteria for some buildings outside city limits that make them appear as lone buildings in undeveloped space, and I think it adds up to potentially give people a wrong picture of the area.

Comment by rustywasm 17 hours ago

Yes, good point. The LA City data was rich, but the other communities have data in other places. I will see what I can do.

Comment by slg 13 hours ago

Great, I'm sure getting more data for a complete picture of the area is a huge undertaking, but simply switching to the light map that shows the geography more clearly is a big improvement.

Comment by rustywasm 18 hours ago

Good idea! Let me work on that...

Comment by andretti1977 7 hours ago

As an Italian I am always amazed when I remember that cities like LA or San Francisco are just 200yo. Here in Italy (but it’s the same for quite any city in Europe) every city can trace its roots back at least two thousand years.

Comment by burningChrome 10 hours ago

Just started reading Shawn Levy's book, "The Castle on Sunset: Life, Death, Love, Art, and Scandal at Hollywood's Chateau Marmont" which relates the history of the hotel, but I found the history of Hollywood and LA fascinating. Its a huge part of the story of the hotel and development of the areas surrounding the hotel.

Comment by sevennull 12 hours ago

Funny, I built the same thing 9 months ago for Denver, CO - nothing too interesting other than 1 subdivision that exploded in growth over 1-2 years in the 70s. A lot of the older areas around Denver built up pretty quickly.

Comment by SachaSOL 2 hours ago

It's impressing to see how people's expansion so fast

Comment by rustywasm 9 hours ago

I added LA County data, and checked it against where I group up and where my mother and father grew up. Seems reasonably accurate so far.

Comment by sshussain270 5 hours ago

Very cool, what ddi you build this with?

Comment by andai 15 hours ago

This is super cool. Seems to be quite laggy for me though, when the timeline reached 2026 and stopped, buildings still kept popping in for the next 30 seconds.

Comment by rustywasm 15 hours ago

Yep, that was my misconfiguration of the CloudFlare cache. Hopefully fixed now.

Comment by gregjw 14 hours ago

What is that huge gap near Venice?

Comment by mark242 14 hours ago

To the north is Santa Monica, its own city.

Comment by 18 hours ago

Comment by mark242 15 hours ago

The obvious next step here is to do LA county, since so much sits outside the city limits.

Comment by rustywasm 9 hours ago

Just added LA County. I spot checked a few places I know, seems to be pretty accurate.

Comment by valiant-comma 16 hours ago

Very cool, but I think it'd be even better if the new buildings popped up rather than faded in.

Comment by shevy-java 3 hours ago

That takes too long!

Comment by kevo1ution 16 hours ago

SF version would be quite boring

Comment by ck2 18 hours ago

wild to see that, reminds me vaguely of the amazing ariel photos by kite of San Francisco after the earthquakes in 1906

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:San_Francisco_in_ruin_edi...

early 1900s to early 2000s was a wild and crazy ride for humanity

when I was a teenager I used to run early morning before sunrise and I would never see a car, like maybe once per hour

but these days it's like rush hour at 5am which is frustrating and annoying

and then I realized in perspective that within my own lifetime from teen to 60 the world population has more than DOUBLED, so what I am experiencing makes some sense in that regard (plus technology advancement)

Comment by quaddoggy 15 hours ago

Is this actually representing homeless encampments?

Comment by globular-toast 7 hours ago

Like mould growing in a Petri dish.

Comment by theycallmeritik 9 hours ago

it's amazing

Comment by HardCodedBias 14 hours ago

Well done! What an illustration of the amazing spirit of the founders, followed by the glacial movement as we allowed NIMBYs to take control through more and more laws.

Brilliant.

Comment by fsckboy 12 hours ago

the Wilshire Corridor view is completely wrong, it should be the stretch of tall buildings a bit above Century City in the Century City view.

Comment by tjwebbnorfolk 15 hours ago

hey I feel like we should work together on something. I maintain https://www.kaggle.com/datasets/landrecordsus/us-parcel-laye... and https://landstats.com.

Comment by 15 hours ago

Comment by hughw 15 hours ago

Now do Austin?

Comment by rustywasm 18 hours ago

I joined the county's 2020 lidar building footprints (LARIAC) to the assessor roll, so every one of the 1,129,558 buildings inside the City of LA has a footprint, a height, and a year built for 98% of them. (All public info, but kind of a pain to grab.)

The page extrudes them in 3D and plays the city filling in from 1880 to now. Colors are by decade, or switch to height and fly to downtown. Hover any building for its address, year, height, and footprint. Some things I found: the 1950s, not the 1920s, is the biggest decade still standing; the Valley visibly snaps into existence after the war; and downtown's 150-foot height limit shows up as a hard ceiling until 1957. Zoomed out it draws a 100 m grid because a citywide view can't carry a million polygons, and heights are exaggerated below street level zoom (the corner label says by how much).

Stack: DuckDB spatial for the join, tippecanoe to PMTiles, MapLibre fill-extrusion, all static files on R2 with no server. City of LA only, since the parcel polygons I pulled stop at the city line.

Happy to answer questions about the data or the rendering.

[Just a fun project, no commercial relevance.]

Comment by drivers99 17 hours ago

Didn't realize you could zoom in until I saw this. It looks really cool when you zoom in and it replaces the boxes with actual building shapes.

Comment by axionbraid 8 hours ago

[flagged]

Comment by entelechy0 18 hours ago

[dead]

Comment by losteric 18 hours ago

[flagged]

Comment by oijkuij 18 hours ago

If you want to encourage folks to continue their efforts and really "build something", I think you'd want to ask your questions in a way that shows genuine interest and support, rather than ridiculing and questioning the level of effort involved.

I agree, I'd love to learn where the dada was sourced! I'm also curious why it appears to come in waves, as opposed to each building going up independently (as I would have expected it to in reality). Cool idea! I can see my house from here haha.

Comment by rustywasm 16 hours ago

The waves are partly real and partly me.

LA genuinely built in bursts. The 1920s and the postwar decade each account for over 230,000 buildings still standing, and the 1930s and 1970s onward are much thinner, so even a perfect per-year animation would surge and pause.

But really it's for performance -- I group buildings into 5-year bins and fade each bin in over its span, rather than popping each building at its exact year.

A per-year filter on a million polygons re-tessellates every visible tile, which was too slow to animate, whereas fading pre-built layers is reasonably fast.

Glad you found your house!

Comment by rustywasm 17 hours ago

This started as a data puzzle. There is a lot of public data but it's hosted by for-profit companies and the data models don't seem to be coherent (probably lots of good reasons for the data models being the way they are, so no criticism, and it's wonderful they are public.)

So for LA City, they use Socrata (owned by Tyler Technologies -- NYSE: TYL) to host and publish open data. LA City also uses Esri's ArcGIS for geo-based data.

So behind the scenes there is my code that builds a parquet database of * MyLA311 service requests * Permits * Construction Enforcement * Crime * Parcels Id with Polygons * Lidar

So that part was a typical data-munging exercise, and it was fun & interesting to me to learn how public entities try and deal with IT budget cuts and service the community, etc. (For example, 311 requests for homeless issues are transferred to another department, so they all look they are closed immediately, but I never could find the agency data that ultimately resolved that type of request.)

So I have a pile of data that is organized in a way that makes sense to me, but I could not build an interface that I liked.

So I asked Claude to create a fly-over visualization to see what it could do with this data, and it blew my mind.

I'm a life-long coder and I'm old, so it's an interesting experience to see how good these models and coding harnesses are, and how quickly they are improving.

As to what makes this HN worthy? I enjoyed playing with the interface, and there might be more people than just me who love LA (warts and all) and its history and architecture. So it's interesting and I'm not asking for anything in return, so for me that satisfies the "HN Show" criteria.

The deeper question for me right now is what does hacking mean when the coding is done by these systems? It's a different kind of hacking, and its makes things possible that impossible before, but it's a million miles away from 6502 assembly.

Comment by kfarr 17 hours ago

It’s great! Agreed don’t feed the trolls.

I’ve helped with a few other zoning visualization projects recently, similar workflow. The only similarity is that each city/jurisdiction makes its data available in a different way. It’s usually accessible but it does mean there’s a lot of work munging the data to a usable format.

Here’s one of the projects: https://github.com/kfarr/zoningviz

Comment by rustywasm 16 hours ago

Yes, this is incredibly similar to the pipeline I ended up with -- https://github.com/kfarr/zoningviz/blob/main/HOW_IT_WORKS.md

The other thing I learned is that some of the data sets use a destructive insert, so unless someone is doing a data snapshot data elements can be lost. (The vendors charge extra time-series option.)

Comment by fortran77 17 hours ago

No need to justify yourself to some bitter, petty, sad troll. Let the upvotes and discussion speak for itself. I love seeing other people's vibe-coded projects come to life. I've re-started a bunch of stalled hobby projects thanks to AI.

Comment by dvt 18 hours ago

> What cool problems did you (not the robot) solve?

Building products has nothing to do with technical problems, just the end result. This is in contrast with things like writing a library or coming up with a new algorithm, or doing research, or even writing a technical blog post, etc.

> or is it just pretty?

People have been sharing "just pretty" things on HN for decades. It might be interesting, thought-provoking, discussion-worthy, or whatever. Even if this wasn't vibe-coded, it wouldn't be some monumental technical achievement. Your point is absolutely moot.

Comment by lackoftactics 14 hours ago

Pretty great day for HN. You can’t just shut off people anymore with „machine did it, not you” as we live in new reality. Comments below make even more sound argument, for data viz we probably don’t need novel problem solving, just people interested to see viz

Comment by 16 hours ago

Comment by tjwebbnorfolk 15 hours ago

[flagged]