LLMs are eroding my software engineering career and I don't know what to do
Posted by poisonfountain 2 days ago
Comments
Comment by iandanforth 2 days ago
Comment by t34t34r43 2 days ago
Except this was not the case, it had of course hallucinated what the regulation actually required (I know this because the code in question had already been reviewed by human counsel). This is (supposedly) the most bleeding-edge model available.
We use a lot of genAI to help us write code, but there is no way in the mid-term we could ever rely on these tools to actually build compliant financial products. We'd have to be totally mad. Yes, lots of Fintech companies are using these agents to accelerate, but anyone who's using them to actually ship product without a human actually digging into it is opening themselves up to a world of risk.
Comment by PeterStuer 2 days ago
My guess is the model makes the same mistakes as the programmers: taking 'rules' literally, unaware of sectoral joint understanding, validated interpretations and habits. (btw. this is often on the non-tech side also a difference between regulatory and legal. The former are much more result oriented while the latter are primarily risk averse.
Comment by davedx 2 days ago
I think adherence to regulation and compliance is nothing to do with whether you're a SWE, a risk officer, or C-level, and everything to do with your own principles, ethics, professional attitude, and pragmatism.
Comment by jval43 2 days ago
1. experience, i.e. knowing why and how a rule matters (in general, but also to auditors)
2. willingness to think
If these aren't present, you get overly restrictive compliance that at the same time accomplishes nothing.
Comment by treszkai 2 days ago
Comment by notarobot123 2 days ago
Comment by Markstar 1 day ago
Comment by thewebguyd 2 days ago
IME this is less the fault of IT and more so bad auditors that won't consider, or just don't understand, what compensating controls are. If it doesn't meet their little checklist exactly, they fail the audit.
Comment by antonvs 2 days ago
This is such a nonsensical claim. If a company is asking someone from IT to read the regulations and implement them, then obviously you’re going to get something that conforms to the written specification they were provided.
But a company that does that is basically delegating both compliance and legal functions to IT. No sane company does that.
Comment by VonGallifrey 2 days ago
I was a Software Dev in a small (but fully regulated and licensed) stock exchange. We used to have guidance from legal experts, market experts, and traders, but in the last project I worked on, they just dumped 300 pages of laws and regulations on my desk and asked me what needed to be done. Why? Because the experts we used to have were either fired or left. Along with any product managers. I guess company leadership thought they were no longer needed.
Insane is right. I told them that this is not how it is supposed to work. I can't tell them what needs to be done. I am not a legal expert who can just interpret these regulations.
I was forced out of the company after that, but honestly, no one would want to work in such an environment anyway.
Comment by thewebguyd 2 days ago
This actually happens scarily often, especially in smaller companies. No F500 is doing this, but there are tons of "mid market" sized non-tech companies (think 80 to 150 employees in size) that basically rely on the IT department of 1 or 2 people, or an MSSP for pretty much everything. No legal team, maybe an attorney they consult with once or twice a year if you're lucky.
Comment by mlinhares 2 days ago
Comment by DaedalusII 2 days ago
regulation are written ambiguously and the specifications do not match the industry
I have even seen regulators refuse to specific legislated laws because "thats not what the government meant", giving a company the choice of following the law and being fined, or breaking the law to please the regulatory agency
Comment by dumah 1 day ago
One good one is that providing concrete razors for compliant and non-compliant behavior accelerates the gaming of the rules.
Comment by fragmede 2 days ago
How to say you deal with PCI compliance without saying you steal with PCi compliance.
Comment by hparadiz 2 days ago
Comment by JimBlackwood 2 days ago
Comment by hparadiz 2 days ago
Comment by lmz 2 days ago
Comment by raducu 2 days ago
My experience as IT in modern banks was the opposite. The legal department were absolute assholes when it came to software features. And I'm talking absolutely 100% ok features, like paying your bills from the banking application.
The least fun, trigger happy, cover their buts people I've ever seen.
Like all they could ever say was NO. I guess they were heavily incentivized to just say NO to everything.
Comment by arethuza 2 days ago
Comment by ziml77 2 days ago
Comment by fireflash38 2 days ago
They are incentivized to strike the best balance of certifying (who wants to go to a place that never certifies) and validity (rubber stamp mills reflect the blame).
Yes, it is meant to be adversarial, to a point.
Comment by CSSer 2 days ago
Comment by protocolture 2 days ago
Later I worked in a role, attempting to achieve PCI compliance. The Auditor was a really nice guy, but there was always a short list of 10 things that he wasn't quite happy with. We kept increasing the scope of compliance to keep up with him. Everyone talked about him (Semi famous local celebrity security consultant/researcher/lecturer) and claimed that if we just stuck it out we would be super duper compliant and basically unassailable. Except that it never ended. Went 12 months with the guy. Then they just stopped paying his bills and brought in another auditing firm. Compliant immediately. You never know in a situation like that whether we were actually compliant or if there was graft. But we got there. Knowing that organisation I lean towards graft. They then failed their first audit after achieving compliance.
I have done a few PCI compliance operations since. And what I have found that you cant control for the auditor, so what good IT management does, is make every single requirement completely unassailable. If you cant write a very obvious compensating control in 5 sentences, then you just move heaven and earth to comply with the letter of the requirement (even if the project to become compliant, is itself a compensating control for a while). If you get an over achieving auditor, you wont spend 200 billable hours arguing about compensating controls. If you have a shit auditor, you know you are compliant even if they aren't being as thorough as they could possibly be. Its the only ethical way to navigate the situation.
Comment by jayd16 2 days ago
Comment by PeterStuer 2 days ago
As an enterprise architect, these are all part of the meetings you have with compliance when you are working on major projects. I have had the privilege of working with some excellent compliance officers, and they are the opposite of the nay-saying caricature that is often painted of them. I found these people to be extremely creative and helpful, working together towards solutions rather than stalling or nixing viable progress.
Comment by logicalmind 2 days ago
It doesn't feel like we're living in the same world of regulation that existed prior to DOGE.
Comment by throwaway2037 1 day ago
> I also work in finance... DOGE wiped out a large amount of the regulators in government.
I found an insanely detailed Wiki page about all of the gov't divisions affected by DOGE: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/US_federal_agencies_targeted_b...However, I don't see anything about finance there. I'm confused by your comment. Can you provide more specifics?
Comment by logicalmind 10 hours ago
I can't go into too much detail, but for a financial institution to offer certain financial products, you have to submit a proposal to one of the above regulatory bodies to get their approval. We were attempting to do just that and we couldn't even find the proper person at the given agency who should be receiving said proposal. It was even rumored that regulatory agency who would normally review such proposals didn't have the staff to review them. And the review would be done by an entirely different group of regulators who have not done such things historically.
Additionally, these agencies do regular exams of financial institutions to ensure they are complying with regulations and handling fraud properly. These cuts have led to those exams either not happening, or happening at a fraction of the depth they had been previously.
Comment by jimbokun 2 days ago
What a win!
Comment by jrflowers 1 day ago
Comment by jayd16 2 days ago
I'm not implying anything else. I used your own "literal" wording to refer to the "more strict than yours" interpretation.
I suppose I should have used scare quotes around "literal".
Comment by PeterStuer 2 days ago
Company politics, feudal wars, fiefdom protections, backstabbing and outright sabotaging, now there's a daily occurrence and many minions are cannon fodder in those skirmishes, but they usually stay clear of regulatory issues minefields.
Comment by rectang 2 days ago
If the company you work for actually had such a no-fault culture, I doubt you'd be criticizing programmers so aggressively for being sticklers, but would instead be trying to understand and account for the systemic factors (including human factors) behind their behavior.
Comment by fauigerzigerk 2 days ago
I don't see why developers should be in trouble. Developers don't make unilateral decisions on non-trivial compliance matters. A finding of non-compliance at a financial institution would typically be the result of an investigation, a disagreement with the regulator or a court ruling. It would come years after the organisation as a whole decided to adopt the interpretation in question.
Comment by rectang 2 days ago
Engineers are not shielded by their implementer role if they participate in illegal activity. James Robert Liang was a rank-and-file engineer for Volkswagen and he got jailed for his role the VW emissions scandal[1].
No matter how much an enterprise architect or compliance officer promises "it'll be fine" to the developer, the developer needs documented CYA. An enlightened organization would perhaps find ways to expedite that CYA documentation rather than demonizing programmers as a class.
[1] https://apnews.com/general-news-988ea2ae45694b37b320e68cefe3...
Comment by ThrowawayR2 2 days ago
Liang got prison time because he _did understand_ that the engine wasn't compliant with regulations and chose to build the system to falsify the emissions output during tests anyway. He was not a scapegoat.
"On 9 September 2016, James Robert Liang, a Volkswagen engineer working at Volkswagen's testing facility in Oxnard, California, admitted as part of a plea deal with the US Department of Justice that the defeat device had been purposely installed in US vehicles with the knowledge of his engineering team: 'Liang admitted that beginning in about 2006, he and his co-conspirators started to design a new "EA 189" diesel engine for sale in the United States. ... When he and his co-conspirators realized that they could not design a diesel engine that would meet the stricter US emissions standards, they designed and implemented [the defeat device] software.'" from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_emissions_scandal
Comment by rectang 2 days ago
Complain about them, denigrate them, upbraid them for performing analysis outside their primary expertise, fire and replace them.... none of that changes the incentive structure that shunts people in the implementation role towards conservatism out of a perceived need for self-preservation.
Comment by md224 2 days ago
"decisions which they don't understand to be compliant" = "decisions which they don't believe to be compliant"
In other words, they understand that the decisions are not compliant. There's no contradiction with what you said.
Comment by fauigerzigerk 2 days ago
a) Engineers don't know and cannot be expected to know whether what they are being asked to implement complies with all regulations. This is completely normal.
b) Engineers know or can be expected to know based on their expertise that they are being asked to cheat. That's when they are on the hook.
VW was a case of (b). It was clear-cut criminal behaviour on a very technical level. But that's not what typically happens in financial services and many other domains.
But if your point is merely that engineers are not automatically in the clear just because someone higher up told them what to do then I agree with you.
Comment by kanbankaren 2 days ago
Then the rules should enumerate all the ways. From your posts, you come across as if programmers don't know what they are doing which is insulting to those who work in mission critical industries like aviation where a programmer could be criminally charged if he/she didn't implement the specs STRICTLY.
Comment by habinero 2 days ago
It's nice to want things, but rules are much squishier in real life. There's rarely any truly bright line.
Comment by patrulek 1 day ago
Comment by PeterStuer 2 days ago
Is neither what I said nor believe.
Comment by scott_w 2 days ago
Comment by tsunamifury 2 days ago
There’s a reason it’s called “judgement”
Comment by rectang 2 days ago
Comment by jayd16 2 days ago
My point was simply that it's easy to scoff at someone else being careful if it's their neck and not yours.
Comment by parineum 2 days ago
Comment by patrulek 1 day ago
Isnt it how we make stable, deterministic and predictable system? How do you want to create one with ambiguous rules?
Comment by wanderlust123 1 day ago
Comment by ericmcer 2 days ago
The problem is that sucks, even if all software engineers keep their jobs and salaries, the floor is still pulled out from under us. Imagine if a surgeons job was to supervise robot surgeons from a remote computer, or a woodworker just signs off on work before the machines do all the cutting and assembly. Sure they still have important jobs in their field but the soul & humanity of their skill is gone.
Comment by hax0ron3 2 days ago
For me, AIs have actually made the job more soulful, not less. For one thing, it lets me use the part of my mind that is good at human language, not just the part of my mind that is good at software. This makes the job feel a bit less one-dimensional in terms of what parts of me are engaged while doing it. For another, I find it liberating to no longer have to think much about boilerplate code or to spend time roaming around the Internet looking up documentation of various language syntax and API details, the vast majority of which are arbitrary rather than being based on any kind of mathematical beauty. For me it makes the job more soulful that I can think of the job on a higher level instead of having to spend effort on arbitrary and tedious details.
Of course there is still the question of "will the job even exist in a few years, at least for more than a relatively small number of people?". But that's a separate question. For now at least, I am finding that for me AIs have brought a lot more soul and humanity to the job than it ever had before.
Comment by abalashov 2 days ago
However, if I were just having to do things for the man, I might have a rather different take on all this.
Comment by hax0ron3 2 days ago
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Comment by auggierose 2 days ago
Comment by Chu4eeno 2 days ago
Comment by odeono 2 days ago
Does the woodworker who shape using a handsaw use less "soul" than the one who uses a machine?
Does the musician who use a DAW and VSTs instead of analogue tape recorders create music with less "soul"?
Does the painter who buys acryllic paint instead of synthesizing their own dye from plants use less "soul"?
As technological innovation progresses, the barrier to creation falls. The process of creating something is not to be conflated with the final piece of art itself.
Comment by runarberg 2 days ago
Compare to this to prompting an LLM: “Generate a third person where game with a view from above where you can steal cars, shoot at people, run from the police, etc.” Anybody with access to the tool can do this, and the results are just another uninspiring GTA clone that you would imagine.
The latter is more like a carpenter ordering their “work” from alibaba then it is like using a skill saw.
Comment by computerdork 2 days ago
To write a piece of music, you're working at so many different levels, the analytical, emotional, and structural as well as drawing on years of training and experience. When a person with little (or even just a moderate amount of) music training generates a piece of music in a couple hours, are they actually a composer? I personally would say no. I mean it does take a good ear (which is important) to use a music generator well, but still, would say they are more of an editor or an evaluator or a practical critic of music instead of a composer.
Yeah, at what point in a discipline does the increasing skill of AI overtake the need for our contributions from the working being done? In music, it's happened already. Looks like it's happening in coding too.
Comment by customguy 2 days ago
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gkqNWNLKpZg
I'm critical of many "AI" developments but I can't and don't want to argue with this. I say we still need to struggle for humanity and we do need to save our souls, but that "it's a machine" is not where the battlefield is.
Comment by hatsix 2 days ago
This isn't like the step from hand saws to power saws, and it's disingenuous to pretend like it is. This is what the startup machine has been doing to every industry... finding... "inefficiencies" and "optimizing" them.
Comment by TurdF3rguson 2 days ago
It's not the item's soul that's at stake when you stop recognizing that, it's your own.
Comment by jadbox 2 days ago
Comment by ImprobableTruth 2 days ago
It's when a woodworker, musician or painter completely outsources their work and just marks what's wrong, sending those parts back. Yes, the final art piece might be the same, but the artist definitely uses less of their "soul".
Comment by afro88 2 days ago
Do they? I saw some crazy stat from the guy who built claude code that he was pushing hundreds of PRs a day. There's no way you can human review that much code. It's probably closer to heavily AI assisted review and planning.
Comment by davedx 2 days ago
I would love to be able to say I pay the same amount of attention and am just as diligent and communicate as clearly with an agent, but it wouldn't be honest: I scan agent PRs for obvious mistakes or misinterpretation of what they've implemented.
With human colleagues I usually know them and their style, their way of working, so have a better idea what to look for. You also have a genuine return on providing feedback that helps coworkers learn and improve, whereas with agents, all the feedback you write is gone when the thing gets merged (unless your org has some kind of shared memory for its agents).
I don't have the answer for what the future looks like, but I suspect agent-type-1 reviews agent-type-2 is actually where we'll end up.
Comment by lubujackson 2 days ago
When industrialization hit, we definitely lost a ton of craftsmanship and craftsman, but a standard Ikea chair is less likely to wobble than the average chair at a much better price (for a random example). Yes, we traded artistry for convenience, but what we really did was bifurcate our needs between "some place stable to sit" from "a beautiful chair for my home". Most people wanted the former more than the latter, and the same applies to software.
If we split the roles into buckets, many woodworkers disappeared, some became artisans, some became designers for industrially-produced products, and some catered to Luddites for a long transitional period. Despite Anthropic's claims, SWEs won't disappear in a year but over a generation or two, no matter how good LLMs become.
Obviously software is much more complicated and integrated into other elements of business, which in a way makes it more vulnerable to AI taking over and in another way will be at the mercy of larger shifts to how businesses organize human roles and responsibilities. What we call "taste" comes down to "intent" - what the hell does a company do? What should it be doing and how should it operate? These will be the only questions that matter and the one thing LLMs can't replace since they will always choose the most default path. So I think human's roles will be to inject intent/taste at different levels of abstraction throughout an organization.
Comment by Melatonic 2 days ago
In addition the incentives are misaligned - the "artisan" made chair (in the past) wasn't likely made for aesthetic reasons - it was made to last long term and function. And if it wobbled or had any problems the original woodworker was probably around to fix it.
Comment by kuschku 2 days ago
I had no prior experience with woodworking, and while it's a little bit wobbly, it's much more robust and it's the exact shape and size I need. It cost the same and it'll last much longer.
And there's emotions and a story attached.
Comment by adrianN 2 days ago
Comment by ozgrakkurt 2 days ago
I don't believe there is any point in having ai generate code
Comment by sumedh 2 days ago
If robots make life saving surgery cheaper so that many people can afford it, isnt that a good thing?
Comment by rvz 2 days ago
Here's an example of what we will continue to see with folks fully immersed in gen AI psychosis:
"The creator of claude code said that he no longer writes code for about 6 months and now has Claude doing all his work now. He also said recently that he no longer prompts Claude and now has it running in loops and it is self-improving itself and performing better than a human!"
If the code produced by the LLM is perfect, the LLM takes the credit. But when a disaster happens, you cannot blame the LLM and it then falls on the human who did it.
I don't think SWEs heavily vibe-coding with LLMs realize the risk in not understanding what the code the LLM being produced is doing even after generating tests (lol). We will see more of this too. [0]
[0] https://sketch.dev/blog/our-first-outage-from-llm-written-co...
Comment by oceanplexian 2 days ago
Are people on HN still typing out functions by hand one character at a time?
It would be like a developer in 2020 claiming that he only writes assembly because compilers can’t be trusted. No one is taking that person seriously. If you chose a career in tech you made a decision to work in one of the fastest moving fields in human history. Now it’s time to get over it, learn the new tools and adapt.
Comment by bigstrat2003 2 days ago
No, thank you. I have used the new tools, determined that they aren't helpful to me, and set them aside as I would with any other bad tool. I don't feel the need to let hype take the steering wheel.
Comment by rvz 2 days ago
Exactly. You are free to use openclaw or a coding agent to build a competing bank, hedge-fund, hospital or even a new airliner because the previous ones were built by humans. Surely an AI can do it better by itself.
So why haven't you done it yet?
Comment by matkoniecz 2 days ago
Yes, me. Yes, I tried LLMs for what I am doing and will try again in few months. No, there was no noticeable or clear improvement over doing it manually.
Yes, I am using some LLMs for some purposes but Claude Code had slight improvement, if any, not worth introducing proprietary dependency.
Comment by troupo 2 days ago
Because we can actually see the disjointed slop that Anthropic produces. And when issues happen, they can't fix them for weeks on end because no one understands what code does anymore, and all of their "hard problems causing issues" they blog about are literally "if we had actual engineers this wouldn't even be an issue to begin with". Like this bullshit they had in spring: https://www.anthropic.com/engineering/april-23-postmortem
> It would be like a developer in 2020 claiming that he only writes assembly because compilers can’t be trusted.
LLMs are not compilers. For a few very obvious reasons I'll leave as an exercise to figure out
Comment by lelanthran 2 days ago
If the AI is producing what you tell it to, why are you needed?
Comment by pyth0 2 days ago
Comment by camdenreslink 2 days ago
This seems like a really confident prediction. It isn't true right now, why do you think it will be true in the future? Right now having knowledge and experience is a huge benefit to steering the LLM (it makes dumb decisions all the time still).
Comment by pyth0 1 day ago
Comment by msm_ 2 days ago
Well I use tab completion, of course. And I copy-paste snippets from LLM more often than from SO now. But otherwise not much has changed in my career in the last 5 years. Is this different for you?
I'm not fundamentally opposed to code generation, and I use LLMs for some taks, but I don't see myself vibecoding whole pages of production code. I vibecoded a throwaway note-taking app for myself though.
Comment by chipsrafferty 2 days ago
Comment by sensanaty 2 days ago
Comment by latentsea 2 days ago
These days it very much feels like the task has shifted from "building the system" to "building the system that builds the system".
It only looks to be trending one way.
Comment by rjrjrjrj 2 days ago
Comment by solenoid0937 2 days ago
I work at a big tech company and I don't know a single person that still hand writes code. Most people haven't hand written code for at least half a year now.
I do wonder what sort of bug is making its rounds on HN that people here find this so shocking and unbelievable.
Comment by troupo 2 days ago
The absolute vast majority of people who point out AI's downsides have used it and use it. People who uncritically write things like "I work at a big tech company and I don't know a single person that still hand writes code." scare the shit out of us for a good reason.
Comment by solenoid0937 2 days ago
Any eng that is only using Claude Code or Codex or whatever, is frankly not entitled to talk about AI's limits since they are using the most basic harnesses. They literally don't know better.
When I see Claude Code or Codex users on HN talking about how coding with AI is risky, it's like watching someone that has only ever seen a catapult argue about how space travel must be impossible.
Comment by camdenreslink 2 days ago
I really doubt big tech has much better harnesses than are publicly available. Definitely not "catapult vs space travel". They have the same base models we all have access to.
Comment by Chu4eeno 2 days ago
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Comment by troupo 1 day ago
Harnesses aren't testing boundaries of AI. They inject "make no mistakes" in various forms and provide some session management tools.
And, as with any people fully buying into and promoting hype, "my harness is in another castle" (they never show anything they boast about") lathered with huge amounts of crude demagoguery and analogies.
Comment by arkadiytehgraet 1 day ago
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Comment by trumpdong 2 days ago
Comment by InsideOutSanta 2 days ago
I've seen accidental non-compliance. I've seen what I would call negligent compliance, where a company attempted to be compliant but didn't meet full, correct compliance (one example I've seen is that a company assigned resources to compliance and forgot to increase resources as workload increased, causing them to be increasingly behind on compliance work), but I've never seen a company that just decided to pretend to be compliant knowing that they were not.
Comment by lowbloodsugar 2 days ago
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Comment by mattmanser 2 days ago
Security, GDPR, backups, build pipelines, disaster recovery, most of it will be faked, half-heartedly done once or ignored entirely.
Then there's the more abstract things like scalability, idempotency when integrating with external APIs, error recovery, accessibility, UX, etc.
Almost always that sort of stuff will have been entirely ignored, or there will be a fig leaf over a real mess of misunderstood standards or manual intervention steps.
Startup developers usually have to be generalists as they often wear many hats, so things that need deeper domain knowledge get done to a bare minimum.
Comment by habinero 2 days ago
Early stage startups, maybe, but most of those are three failsons in a trenchcoat. That sort generate more PR than revenue.
Comment by jimbokun 2 days ago
Comment by IAmGraydon 2 days ago
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Comment by deanc 2 days ago
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Comment by Terr_ 2 days ago
We have long historical experience and innate tools for detecting and mitigating errors made by humans. If we can't apply those to automation, then even fewer total mistakes may end up being a worse outcome.
Comment by sillyfluke 2 days ago
Genuine question: your top coder seems to be producing the most error-free code from your perspective, has the deepest knowledge of the architecture and codebase, and is faster on the trigger than the others.
But your top coder has proven and verifiable dementia, where they will confidently assume the existence of apis and code that do not exist, mix up the purpose of others and forget other things, and you can't predict when and how they will introduce errors into the system or the severity of such errors.
Are you really comfortable letting this person with dementia generate most of your codebase in the airline and health industry?
I also hope you have an iron-clad agreement that prevents the model provider from doing silent updates because all your evidence of correctness you collected thus far goes out the window in that case.
Another genuine question:
You have witnessed a human coder and the AI you're using make the same important mistake. Assuming you do not have the time and resources to retrain, fine tume, and test your frontier model:
Who would you trust not to make the same mistake multiple times in the future after you have warned them that their job depends on it, the AI or the human?
Comment by deanc 2 days ago
Comment by sillyfluke 2 days ago
The parent is implying they would prefer an AI when working in the airline and health industry because it makes less errors. Read the comment again.
They have not said, "Hey, I work in the airline and health industry and I'd love to use AI for a couple of the bullshit IT UIs we have as long as we can put guardrails on the AI to stay in its lane."
I asked a yes or no question. The guardrails you can put to mitigate errors are the same guardrails pre-AI for the humans (tests, regressions, reviews). If you were wary of employing a top lead engineer with verifiable dementia prior to AI for a mission critical system, logic implies you should think twice giving that much responsibility to an AI as well.
> The hallucination thing I think is mostly overblown
Can you predict when and how the SOTA model will hallucinate? Yes or no. Can you predict the severity impact of that error beforehand? Yes or no.
>from speaking to colleagues it seems to vary wildly depending on which model and harness you are using
You have partially answered my question it would seem.
Comment by deanc 2 days ago
No, but the same can be said for your colleagues. You might call what the LLM does hallucinations, I'd call them mistakes. I think we have totally forgotten that humans make them all the time and are confidently wrong too.
Your original question, doesn't really get to the bottom of the point I'm trying to make, and I don't really feel it fairly represents the issue we are talking about here. They are not the same things.
Comment by suttontom 2 days ago
Also, if a human does this, you can replace them and get a human who will not do it. The default for an LLM is to generate plausible-looking text that may or may not be completely incoherent. That is not the default for a human. Again, if you find that your colleague consistently fabricates APIs, you can hire someone who isn't crazy instead, but you cannot do the same with LLMs.
Comment by vor_ 2 days ago
Comment by sillyfluke 2 days ago
That's absolutely false. My collegues don't routinely and confidently invent apis that are not there, or spectacularly and repeatedly misunderstand the purpose of certain functions or exhibit extreme forgetfullness. Especially when I've warned them. Hallucinations and confabulations in otherwise healthy individuals are mental disorders. When I ask them why they made an certain kind of error, I can expect to get a reasonable answer. No one has uttered the phrase "Bob hallucinated again while writing those tests" when the Bob in question is a human.
Comment by deanc 2 days ago
Comment by sillyfluke 2 days ago
Calling hallucinations simply mistakes does not seem to me to be a healthy way to reason about LLMs. I can ask a collegue how well they can program in Ada and adjust my expectations on productivity and bug rates. I can't ask an LLM how well they can code in Ada (just a throwaway example), or even how much of Ada was in its training data. I have to actually spend money and spend time code reviewing before I can even formulate any expectations at all.
Comment by rfgplk 2 days ago
Comment by shakna 2 days ago
And it took "convincing" that it had made a mistake.
Comment by CamperBob2 2 days ago
Dementia gets worse. AI gets better. Nothing matters except d/dt.
Comment by csallen 2 days ago
But the most reasonable take, which I'm happy to see reflected in so many comments in this thread, is… use both.
Do an AI pass, and have humans verify, and vice versa. Let the humans drive the AI. Then the unique shortcomings of each party can be covered by the other's strengths.
Comment by hammock 2 days ago
It might beat an underresourced human review, on time, efficiency, cost metrics. But on the metric of accuracy, throwing unlimited humans at a problem will still beat throwing unlimited AI at it
Comment by esafak 2 days ago
Comment by bigstrat2003 2 days ago
You can do that, sure. But doing so negates any improvements in speed the LLM brought. And at that point, you may as well just do it yourself to begin with.
Comment by jghn 2 days ago
I use GenAI tools when coding a lot, but I do not vibe code. I go through everything it generated, and we iterate. And yes, it doesn't save me a lot of time. But what it does do is free up mental capacity in a similar manner. But instead of syntax, it's more complicated patterns. Maybe I don't remember how to stitch something together, but i know it can be done. Instead of spending the time to look it up and then code it, I just tell it to do it for me.
Comment by klibertp 2 days ago
That's how I use the current AI, too. I never ask them to do something without specifying how it should be done. I ask questions first, use /plan to let the model ask me questions, then I let it execute the plan while reviewing the results. More and more often, I get something close enough to what I would have written. In the opposite case, I at least know exactly how to rewrite the result, if needed.
I observe the same effect as you: while it does sometimes speed up the implementation a bit, it's not very noticeable; however, it frees me from having to recall all the obscure little details up front. Instead, I can describe them, have the model implement them, and then recognize them (and refresh my memory) when reviewing. The effect is that it's easier to start a task because I don't need to prepare as much to execute it. It's especially notable on things that I haven't touched for some time. I know, more or less, how my Elixir projects are set up, but after ~2 years of not working on them, getting back into them had been a hassle - with AI, it's no longer that. I think the biggest difference comes from the AI lowering the cost of context switching for me - I used to have huge problems with that, and AI certainly helped a lot.
Comment by skillina 2 days ago
Comment by coldtea 2 days ago
We could do with less speed.
Comment by csallen 2 days ago
Comment by BurningFrog 2 days ago
Or are current AIs too similar for that to be fruitful?
Comment by suttontom 2 days ago
Comment by criticalfault 2 days ago
regulation questions. even the simple ones, AI gets all the time wrong. it wasn't Mythos, but other models like opus.
I can adjust the view on this topic if/when we get access to mythos.
Comment by realusername 2 days ago
Well too bad, the problem is that they also produce things much faster than humans so errors will compound quicker.
Comment by porridgeraisin 2 days ago
Comment by bobkb 2 days ago
Comment by tenthirtyam 1 day ago
Maybe it's just me, but it seems that companies will happily take existential risks to get a better bottom line short term. Either you're too big to fail or you've already privatised any profits and subsequent losses (due to the risks becoming manifest) are socialised. The motor industry seems to be particularly egregious in this aspect, but also the food industry, construction industry etc.
Seems to me even governments make the same choices in many ways - cut back health-care, policing, education, public transport and let the next government deal with the consequences.
Comment by philipallstar 1 day ago
Definitely - defund the police was an astonishing rallying cry that made the communities it pretended to help much more dangerous for their residents.
But the opposite is far more likely, and far more destructive long-term: it's easier to buy votes by spending more on social programmes and rack up debt and/or inflation to cover it, and then spend even more to fix that problem for enough voters that the people paying for it all can't vote it away, and the people who vote for it over the decades just don't understand why their pot feels so uncomfortably warm all of a sudden.
Comment by DaedalusII 2 days ago
https://www.tomsguide.com/ai/ai-can-now-identify-anonymous-i...
Comment by solenoid0937 2 days ago
Comment by Aeolun 2 days ago
Comment by latentsea 2 days ago
I find hallucinations happen for us with those models, but we've worked on baking in guardrails and fact checking against sources of truth, so that it's less of a problem.
We're engineers. We just try to engineer out the failure modes.
Comment by rfgplk 2 days ago
Comment by Chu4eeno 2 days ago
Comment by Loic 2 days ago
And this is fine. Developing new software with a really smart intern is the same, you, as an expert, need to bring your experience/expertise on the table to have everything right. Because experience needs time.
Comment by rfgplk 2 days ago
Comment by vips7L 2 days ago
Comment by JoeyJoJoJr 2 days ago
Comment by mbbutler 2 days ago
The original Mythos release used ASan to filter false-positives so it was able to maintain a good FPR, but when Mythos moves into domains that don't have a readily available oracle to help filter hits, the result is a deluge of false bullshit.
Comment by ilaksh 2 days ago
But really that particular issue could have been solved by literally just telling it in a markdown file or instructions something like "verify all facts or compliance requirements with web search and include citations in responses".
Comment by ofjcihen 2 days ago
“Verify all facts and compliance requirements” leaves enormous holes even if you assume the LLM has a concept of facts and requirements (it does not).
What facts? What requirements? For what industry? For what subset of that industry? For what country or countries that you will be doing business in? Are these current “facts” and “requirements” or is the LLM referencing a dusty article from 1992 for which the subject matter has been radically overhauled?
In my job I regularly see small but incredibly important mistakes like this lead to major issues. Some of those are human driven but increasingly the defense of the person responsible has turned into “Claude said it was fine though!”
Comment by rfgplk 2 days ago
No. This is a disasterous instruction. Not only is it vague, but it's also meaningless. When giving instructions to an LLM your prompt must be concise and exact. Tell it _exactly_ which requirements need to be followed, ideally have it write or (preferably) pass audited tests to enforce these requirements. You also need to provide it with a hard source of truth it can rely upon. Instead of saying "verify facts", you're better off by saying "... make sure [whatever you're doing] matches with data at X.Y.Z, verify by running [instruction/command/program]"
Comment by zuzululu 2 days ago
Comment by ilaksh 2 days ago
Comment by ofjcihen 2 days ago
Additionally, using a specific tool does not suddenly give the model common sense enough to say “this piece of information doesn’t answer the question of whether this solution fits in this specific industry at this time in this place”.
Comment by ilaksh 2 days ago
Comment by kolinko 2 days ago
Comment by ofjcihen 2 days ago
If I plucked a random passerby and gave them the task then no, I’d find myself detailing out every specific to them.
You’re equating the LLM to the least qualified candidates. I don’t think your argument is communicating what you intended.
Comment by zuzululu 2 days ago
feel like the parent you are replying to literally views their place of work as a daycare which is very condescending
Comment by vor_ 2 days ago
I remember hearing that 10 years ago about self-driving.
Comment by oblio 2 days ago
We need a lot more basic research into LLMs and also a lot cheaper hardware.
The current batch of LLMs will turn a lot of fields upside down, but not to the tune of $3tn or whatever crazy amounts are being invested right now.
Comment by ilaksh 2 days ago
And the thing he complained about is fixable with a web search, and AI does programming and office work today. So, it's already here. It's just a question of degrees.
Comment by habinero 2 days ago
Tesla has been a couple years away from FSD for, what, like ten years now?
If you scrape off the glitter, you'll find a lot more duct tape and wire than you think.
Comment by DaSHacka 2 days ago
Comment by suttontom 2 days ago
IME people would benefit greatly from the process, albeit tedious and time-consuming, of testing out the same prompt sequence/session with the exact same model multiple times. It becomes clear extremely quickly how capable but unreliable and inconsistent a model can be even when given the same context. If you have ever completed a long, complicated task with an agent and then lost the session and tried doing the same thing again from scratch you may have had the experience of seeing the subtle changes that come up in the model's thinking which lead it to accept or reject certain paths and ignore or incorporate prompt instructions like the one you've provided.
Comment by ilaksh 2 days ago
Comment by jppope 2 days ago
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Comment by tpoacher 2 days ago
Comment by whatevaa 2 days ago
Comment by DANmode 2 days ago
You sure?
Comment by galactushonor 2 days ago
Did it do the correct job once you put the regulations doc(s) in the context?
Comment by loloquwowndueo 2 days ago
Comment by mattmanser 2 days ago
Comment by Chu4eeno 2 days ago
Comment by Lionga 2 days ago
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Comment by steveBK123 2 days ago
Comment by iugtmkbdfil834 2 days ago
"Make it better" with no additional or reasonable previous explanation of what better might mean.
"AI will figure it out" not for pattern extraction, but for a full blown analysis with equally generic prompt all confidently stated by an executive telling people working it how it works
Comment by steveBK123 2 days ago
So the question remains if non-programmers will adapt, the LLMs will accept wider range of input styles, or .. its just another abstraction layer for devs to use.
I've observed this in the wild where someone is iterating with an LLM and giving it only negative feedback. For example responding to edits with "don't make it blue" rather than "keep the existing button shape, and change the color back to green".
The LLM doesn't really come back the way a human would and say "so what color do you want?".. it just, guesses. Now abstract that to more complex tasks.
Comment by iugtmkbdfil834 2 days ago
Comment by SpicyLemonZest 2 days ago
Comment by PIY 2 days ago
Comment by mkovach 1 day ago
Comment by franze 2 days ago
you take a spec and create tests, every little thing
you use another ai to verify these tests against the spec
you review the tests vs the spec (at one point human review)
you put the tests off limits to change / wall them.
you let the ai write the software that fulfills the tests.
there will be some gaps where you repeat the cycle above
if the tests fulfill the spec, the code will fulfill the spec
Comment by torben-friis 2 days ago
A spec detailed enough and unambiguous enough to be translated into machine execution deterministically is called code.
Unlike a compiler, AI can build with a spec that is not detailed enough or unambiguous enough: It does so by filling in the gaps with educated guesses.
This is safe if and only if you take the time to later read the output, understand what its guesses were, and judge wether they were acceptable. No AI can do this for you because the truth lies in your original intentions, which it does not have access to.
The jury is out there on how reliable and time consuming this is vs writing the code yourself; it is not immediately obvious that is faster or requires a smaller cognitive load.
Comment by hparadiz 2 days ago
As for whether or not LLMs can write unit tests. The answer is yes.
Comment by recursive 2 days ago
Comment by hparadiz 2 days ago
Comment by recursive 2 days ago
Comment by hparadiz 2 days ago
Comment by recursive 2 days ago
> The system shall have behavior identical to that expressed by the system created by the following source code. [add some stuff about environment to taste]
Comment by steveBK123 2 days ago
Particularly as tokenmaxxing has ended and people are being charged more economic prices. If the pricing 5-10x the way Uber,etc did on the path to profitability.. even more so.
Comment by Daishiman 2 days ago
I mean for a lot of spec code people define the API signatures and let the llm run with it which is an excellent tradeoff.
Comment by officialchicken 2 days ago
Comment by franze 2 days ago
other than there are "internal micro feedback loops" during development?
Comment by hedora 2 days ago
Doing the above doesn't actually make the model smarter, so, if it couldn't get to correct code with fewer steps, then the light you see at the end of the tunnel is an oncoming train.
Comment by sigbottle 2 days ago
The only way to test this is to test it out, in real life. Sometimes people see results, sometimes people don't. Note that yes, I am including the entire iteration process - even after iterating, people still don't see results with AI.
I have had both positive and negative experiences with AI, over multi-week projects. But apparently on hackernews, anything positive about AI is proof that AI is superhuman and taking over, and all follies about AI are lies by stupid humans who secretly have psychological dispositions to fear AI. Sometimes the AI genuinely isn't good enough. Are we not allowed to say that now? We might not know why, but it's just the truth.
The other solution is to formally analyze the entire space of possible actions the agent can take a priori. Then yes, you can definitively say whether or not the principle breaks or not. Can you, though? Can you give a formal specification for the space of possible actions for AI and show that your loop never breaks, or breaks less than humans, or any other sensible criteria? If not, then you can't just give an abstract principle and start making inferences from that.
Comment by bobkb 2 days ago
Comment by SuperV1234 2 days ago
Did it find any real potential issue, optimization/simplification opportunities, or sparked any thought-provoking discussion within your organization?
Or was it purely a net negative experience?
Comment by margalabargala 2 days ago
You're the only one coming away thinking there was a net negative experience.
Comment by troupo 2 days ago
The only thought-ptovoking discussion should be "why the hell do we have this stochastic parrot anywhere near out codebase"
Comment by bloaf 2 days ago
A system which will just randomly decide to give the legal team reasons to not back you up is:
* A system whose output will get brought up in lawsuits and make legal's job harder.
* A system that will make the dev team perpetually chase its tail while it oscillates between the several different valid interpretations of the rules.
Comment by brookst 2 days ago
Not saying that is the situation, I don’t know. But if “one error is too many” is your point of view… do you think the humans in these orgs are 100% perfect 100% of the time?
Comment by troupo 2 days ago
How many gaps have humans not caught?
> But if “one error is too many” is your point of view
Yes, in regulated industries "one error is too many" is the only right approach.
Yes, humans also make errors, and there you have a range of options: from tracing and finding the causes of the error (and tightening processes) to literally jailing those responsible. Your hallucination machine will happily "identify" 17 gaps, and create 34 more. And no, there are no processes to make it better. The "make no mistakes" incantation will happily be ignored for obvious reasons, regardless of how many forms of it you throw at it.
Comment by ToValueFunfetti 2 days ago
Comment by troupo 1 day ago
You're basically saying "we need human review for literally everything AI outputs because we have no way of saying whether anything it produces is hallucination or not. And since it produces plausible-sounding things really fast, it puts enormous burden on human reviewers".
Comment by ToValueFunfetti 1 day ago
Comment by troupo 1 day ago
The machine doesn't say that. It says "Here are 170 completely correct and verified results".
You have to check and verify all of those results yourself, and on any given day it can be anywhere from 0% to 100% incorrect.
> I assume you've come to this conclusion based on some reasoning, but you're not sharing it in this response AFAICT.
The reasoning comes from actually working with AI tools. And the reasoning can be seen in the actual comment this tgread started from: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48434824
Comment by ToValueFunfetti 19 hours ago
>In a regulated industry 90% false positive rate is indistinguishable from 100% failure rate
So defending that position on the basis of it not actually being a 90% failure rate would mean you shouldn't have taken it in the first place. The fact that the LLM lies about its failure rate is nearly irrelevant; the machine could output the literal string "The following is 90% likely to be a false positive: " followed by the LLM output.
The reasoning in the comment that started the thread is "it's annoying to redo human review". Your position as I understand it is that there is no or negative business value to a tool that spit out a list of potential issues of which 10% are real issues with your business. This is what I fail to understand. This would be an incredibly useful first step towards any audit and would save loads of money. Why not?
Comment by gaiagraphia 2 days ago
I love using AI tools as casinos. It's epic in helping to forge ideas and kickstart thought processes. You basically have the entirety of world knowledge at your fingertips to have a pint with.
Comment by cucumber3732842 2 days ago
The conversations had already been had and the product made compliant. Mythos just pulled new rules out of its ass and of course the product wasn't compliant with those. So they do a fire drill and find that to be the case at great expense.
Yeah you can frame it as "more checking is always better" if you wanted but that's just the same old "other people's resources are valueless" slight of hand we see on everything. It probably was mostly wasteful work.
Comment by hedora 2 days ago
So, in this case, the LLM's behavior was equivalent to the behavior of the resistance during WWII.
I think that book should be required reading for all engineering students.
Comment by vulcan01 2 days ago
> the code in question had already been reviewed by human counsel
Comment by johnbarron 2 days ago
Comment by dakiol 2 days ago
But how are you so sure your colleagues are not more "expert" than you? Prior LLMs there was room for very good engineers and mediocre engineers to work together in 99% of the companies out there. With LLMs, only the "best" engineers will survive, because nobody needs mediocre engineers anymore.
This being HN, I imagine every engineer reading this thinks they are in top the 10-5% of their company/city/country, and therefore they think they are not "mediocre" engineers that can get affected by the introduction of LLMs. Statistically, they are probably wrong. So, it's all about ego. Chances are you are not a rockstar and LLMs will eventually take over your job.
As usual, the only winners here are corporations and executives. Most of us are the last monkeys in the chain, and so we'll get screwed.
Comment by aleqs 2 days ago
Comment by mancerayder 2 days ago
I love it! And posts on HN about Big Ideas and uses corpspeak to justify driving people to long hours. The engineer who's picked up talking points of his employer because he's well-paid and trapped on the spectrum, making it hard to comprehend a life of Play outside of work.
Comment by misnome 2 days ago
But there are certainly 0.1x engineers
Comment by Fargren 2 days ago
Comment by trumpdong 2 days ago
Comment by trumpdong 2 days ago
But it's only a 10x state if you're doing the right thing, otherwise it's a -10x state, and that means you need to have already done the right amount of thinking and have a good intuition for what you're trying to do. (As long as you can recognize a failed experiment and revert, risk of being -10x isn't that terrible)
Comment by rightbyte 2 days ago
Comment by rjbwork 2 days ago
Comment by klabb3 2 days ago
Comment by throwaway7783 2 days ago
All of this to say that it's not just experience that makes one a better engineer.
Comment by aleqs 2 days ago
Comment by throwaway7783 1 day ago
Comment by Aperocky 2 days ago
This is giving too much credit to LLM. I think LLMs are great and it is incredibly useful both in personal and professional settings. However, it exist on a separate plane than human workers in the tools category.
Sooner or later, people will find out that LLMs only overlaps with existing human hierarchy (e.g. junior dev X%, senior dev Y%, etc), but almost never 100%. If it was 100% to a certain position, you are probably using the humans wrong to begin with there - since humans have one of the most priced thing that I don't see an single ounce out of LLMs: initiative
Comment by dorgo 2 days ago
Comment by Aperocky 2 days ago
We don't need to know the entire knowledge base of mankind to want or know what to do next. It points to an entirely separate architecture than LLM.
Comment by Yokohiii 2 days ago
I don't think this is true.
A good engineer doesn't have infinite throughput. In my opinion the best engineers should be constantly bottlenecked because they solve difficult problems. They don't have time for grunt work. Every company needs less than perfect engineers, AI assisted or not.
Comment by sigotirandolas 1 day ago
The LLMs don't need to be perfect, they just need to be good enough so that the cost of fixing their code is lower than the communication overhead and the 'lost in translation' overhead from delegating tasks to mediocre engineers.
Comment by Yokohiii 1 day ago
If AI + lower skill engineers turn out to be valuable, it also becomes more attractive for smaller companies and startups to do software or expand / inhouse software. Which is actually a good opportunity to level up, because many devs don't become great because they miss the chance to take responsibility. Which is harder in smaller companies.
Comment by onlyrealcuzzo 2 days ago
LLMs are going to show that there's a huge divide in "engineers" between people who love "coding" and people who like "engineering".
The group of people kicking and screaming the most are the people who love code and don't want to see their coding go away.
These are typically the build vs buy folks. "We can't use anything anyone else wrote, I can do it better..."
What do you think Staff level engineers do? They don't sit around coding all day.
Writing the code is just something you had to do in the past to get the job done.
What you get paid to do is "engineer". The two are related, but they are separate. Coding is a very small part of the average engineer's job (and almost none at staff level and above).
And yet the vast majority of engineers think that the world is going to end if they aren't spending most of their time "coding".
Comment by ksenzee 2 days ago
Comment by cheesecakegood 1 day ago
Comment by itemize123 2 days ago
Interesting to see if you why you see it destructive. I can certainly see that a lot of the times, copiloted solutions are working but less than ideal
Comment by onlyrealcuzzo 1 day ago
Sounds like a "your team" problem, and not a tool problem...
I hate to break it to you...
If your team can write crap in Ruby, they can write crap in Rust, too.
And if they can write crap with AI, they can write crap without it, too.
Comment by AndrewKemendo 2 days ago
The majority of my time is an engineering manager has been teaching “engineers” how to actually do engineering with any kind of rigor
The number of engineers who have an absolutely no theoretical structural or system basis for what they’re doing is the vast vast majority
Comment by diordiderot 2 days ago
Famously a net loss for humanity.
Comment by bobnamob 2 days ago
Comment by pjmlp 1 day ago
I have seen teams being reduced in size due to offshoring, move into cloud, move into SaaS and iPaaS products, this is the next step and no one is safe.
Comment by itemize123 2 days ago
Comment by epolanski 2 days ago
But, besides coding skills (which some possess), the engineering, social, and business ones are close to non existent.
Comment by chipsrafferty 2 days ago
I would bet my life and everyone I care abouts' lives that much more than 70% CAN write fizz buzz.
Comment by baobabKoodaa 2 days ago
Comment by epolanski 2 days ago
There was also another study I cannot find where 56% of engineering graduates struggled to write a fizz buzz.
I think people highly underestimate how long is the average developer, closed in their bubbles of mostly well established software teams that forget that for each of them there's 10 software consultants in southern Europe glueing APIs with trial and error on Java 8 monstrosities.
Comment by baobabKoodaa 2 days ago
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Comment by simon84 2 days ago
The real question is about accountability and liability.
When a major data leak is going to happen, who will they sue or fire ? That is the value engineers provide. They understand, confirm, and take ownership.
Comment by jalev 2 days ago
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Comment by lanfeust6 2 days ago
I'm not even certain that laziness gets them further along than it used to; I think it's that people have not had their overconfidence painfully corrected yet. Behaviors will re-align pretty fast when people realize that no, they're not going to get away with just pressing a button and saying everything is "good". That is happening right now.
Comment by mexicocitinluez 2 days ago
If a nurse does something incorrectly, they can lose their license. Ensuring that nurse will never be a nurse again. There is a very clear path of accountability and very clear ways to mitigate it.
For instance, if a nurse is drunk and you recognize there is a pattern of people showing up drunk, you institute drug tests and breathalyzers and move on.
While we probably won't have LLM's autonomously performing procedures, they are 100% parsing documentation, reading lab results, making suggestions, etc. And right now, the burden has been placed squarely on the clinicians themselves. It'll feed them them the data, ask if they approve/agree, and then essentially wash their hands of accountability. Let's say an LLM starts incorrectly reading lab results, how is that fixed/remedied? A prompt update? Additional safeguards? Adjusting the temperature? Changing a model?
This is a far different type of engineering that still feels pretty new. Granted, I'm still an amateur in this space (I use Claude Code a decent bit), but it feels really opaque to me right.
Comment by verandaguy 2 days ago
You, the IC, the developer prompting the code extruder, are ultimately responsible for its outputted code and its behaviour.
You may feel pressured to push out thousands of lines of code a day. You may see those thousands of lines refactored several times over the lifespan of a merge request. You may be asked to do this continue this in the long term with all the mental fatigue that entails.
When it's too much for you to sustainably deal with and you turn to using LLMs to review the code, that will still, presumably, fall on you at the end of the day.
The output is your responsibility.
Comment by rvz 2 days ago
This goes for serious incidents, disasters, outages and security breaches.
If there was an investigation and the answer was "a piece of software was vibe coded with AI" why would anyone trust the software vendor after that?
Comment by marcosdumay 2 days ago
Even Solarwinds is still alive.
Comment by simon84 2 days ago
So that is starting to dig deeper than a plain mistake. I guess we will soon-ish witness the first AI slop trial going on, this will be interesting to follow
Comment by mont_tag 2 days ago
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Comment by jalev 2 days ago
It's a race to get first-to-market for backend integrations/features. It's given rise to a culture of "move fast break things" where safety is only for some core features, but absolutely not for the constellation of other services we provide. Failure rates have increased almost a percentage point since Codegen/LLM adoption was mandated from up top.
You would think regulators would be on top of this, but our industry runs on all actors "self reporting" their outages. Most don't unless they can't hide it (>1h)
Comment by mrkeen 2 days ago
Comment by bigthymer 2 days ago
Yes
Comment by hn_throwaway_99 2 days ago
Comment by sensanaty 2 days ago
Comment by quijoteuniv 2 days ago
I understand the frustration of spending years nurturing a skill and then seeing its value decline.But this isn’t really an LLM problem. The same thing happened to factory workers, typists, draftsmen, and many others before. The technology changes, but the underlying issue is the economic system we live in, where the market can suddenly decide that something you’ve spent years mastering is worth much less than before.
LLMs are not creating that dynamic. They’re just accelerating it.
Comment by abhgh 2 days ago
I am not sure but for complex cases it seems to me that the earlier sum of moderately long PR time + moderately long review time has been replaced by very short PR time + even longer review time. I am not sure if there's a net gain in these cases. Sometimes even if the code is functionally correct, it's verbose enough (e.g., too many intermediate functions) that I think they will impact future reviews.
Comment by lelanthran 2 days ago
Dunno how much longer that is going to remain true for your specific employer - all the fintech companies I deal with personally have had some sort of AI account for their devs since last year.
Even places like jane street have employees posting blogs (one of which was on HN frontpage about 60m ago) saying they mostly direct agents.
How long do you think your specific employer is going to hold out?
Comment by iandanforth 2 days ago
Comment by abustamam 2 days ago
Comment by SlinkyOnStairs 2 days ago
I'd posit there's another layer. You have domain knowledge, certainly. But more valuable still is the wisdom to find more.
Anthropic and OpenAI can stick financial regulations in the training data all they want, but the AI systems will never learn to anticipate the future, or reach out to clients, partners, or regulators in complicated situations.
Comment by baq 2 days ago
Citation needed. I don’t see any reason these systems shouldn’t be able to speculate; indeed some would say that’s all they do, even about the past.
Comment by znpy 2 days ago
A lot of companies are investing money on “ai factories” that are join to automate a lot of software development (that is, steer LLMs) on the basis of jira tickets (or linear/trello cards or whatever).
Comment by jrockway 2 days ago
Most surprising to me about the article was the desire for OP's company to use AI for design docs. I feel like AI-generated design docs are some of the worst -- basically treating English as a programming language. They aren't enjoyable to read, and they often miss the forest for the trees. A human written sketch explaining why we're here and what we're working towards is still meaningful and important. If you want code-level details of every decision and algorithm, we have code for that.
I have mixed feelings on whether these documents are useful LLM inputs. I did a project where I carefully paired with Claude Code on producing a specification that another model would actually implement. I'm not sure it saved me any time, and it was very un-fun. (I kind of blame Opus 4.7 xhigh for this. It ain't speedy.) I feel like I can nitpick code to get exactly what I want, but defining exactly what I want an auto-mode LLM to go and do, in English, is much more difficult. I don't think the PLAN.md I generated would have been useful for a human trying to understand the system (too verbose), and Claude Code still made its usual mistakes that I have reminded it a billion times not to make (t.Context() in tests, not context.Background()!), so I'm just not sure it was worth it. I would say I probably wouldn't do it again in the near future. A rough sketch to get humans on board and to get the high level details worked out, written by hand, and then pairing with the LLM on actually typing in the code seems the most productive to me. But I do try to go outside my comfort zone once in a while to test the edges of these tools. They are very impressive and are worth a lot of the hype. (I know I will never write a YAML file again. I hate it more than anything, and Claude is amazing at it. But I worry I wouldn't feel the same way if I hadn't already had 8 years of k8s experience.)
Comment by cookiengineer 2 days ago
If you build your environment to be specification based, you have to make sure you have good specifications. If your "memory solution" uses freeform markdown notes, you already lost from the start.
Also choose languages with good unit testing built-in, and languages with unified code styles, and unified toolchains. If you use C++, assume that there's a million ways to build your algorithm. If you use JS, assume 10 different build pipelines. If you use java, assume bloat by dependency hell.
LLMs mimic the ecosystem's variety and variadicity(?). Languages like Go shine so well because it's a very opinionated language, where there's only one proposed way on how to implement things. And that's a good harness to begin with. LLMs are like children on the playground. You have to build better rulesets and fences to make them behave how you expect them to.
Also, check out qwen3.6 coder and heretic models. 30b is the sweet spot for coding and unit testing. For planning and designing, gemma4 is pretty good.
Comment by bwfan123 2 days ago
Love the metaphor. Planes are sophisticated machines capable of auto-piloting, but humans are still needed to ultimately pilot the beast.
Comment by altmanaltman 2 days ago
The real reason we have pilots in commerical jets is that they are a failsafe because a mistake in your automated system can kill 100+ people and guess what? It still does from time to time even with a human piloting the "beast."
It is not impossible to have fully automated planes. We just cannot afford to make any mistakes otherwise people will die so we keep pilots as failsafes.
Nobody will die if your claude code hallucinates.
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At least that's how it reads to me.
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Comment by insane_dreamer 2 days ago
it only matters what upper management think, and its clear that more and more companies value "good enough" and reducing costs over "good"
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Comment by realusername 2 days ago
I've seen first hand what less experienced developers produce using the same models, your 90% accuracy suddenly drops to 50%...
Comment by Quothling 2 days ago
We had a PoC in place to get fabric, it had like 500 hours allocated for what I did in a week with cowork, and my product is actually on secure vnet network with Azure identity security with both a test and a production environment delivering actual data.
Cowork even made the damn powerpoint slideshows for decision makers.
The single saving grace right now is that it apparently isn't easy for everyone to do this yet. But I didn't use a whole lot of my knowledge on software engineering to make any of it happen, not even the pandas and arrow code that moves the data behind the scenes. I mainly used my knowledge of NIS2 compliance and general data architecture in a step-by-step process. To me anyone with common sense should be able of doing this, and I really don't think I'm special... but then I teach other people AI at our company and they can barely get it to create a running program. Which is fine for now, but I have to work another 20ish years before I retire, and by then a lot of young people will have grown up with AI, and like I said, I'm not special. I think the only thing that differentes me is that I mash the buttons until it works but also have decades of security and compliance hammered into me.
Comment by micromacrofoot 2 days ago
I've been a developer for 25 years
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Comment by raducu 2 days ago
I give LLMs snippets of text messages exchanges with my wife and I can't believe how dumb the LLMs are of getting basic facts right let alone nuance.
I'm 100% not one those "LLMs are just stochastic parrots" people, but coding and coding-like activities are extraordinarily well fit for LLMs, but for things that there's less training data, LLMs probably do a lot worse
Comment by throwaway201606 2 days ago
I like your comment, want to try to expand on it
Comment long but there is a TL;DR at the bottom
My theory is that there are 4 areas to domain knowledge worth taking about here - there may be more but I like 2*2 matrices
1) explicit internal requirements - core of how the how the app should work towards achieving your business objectives - code expresses what should be done and to a pretty large extent, why it should be done - from business unit requirements - we are building a tool to do “X”
2) implicit internal requirements - core of how the how the app should work towards achieving your business parameters and constraints
eg profit = selling price - ( total of costs )
- code expresses what should be done but really can’t express why. At best it is in the comments
eg if market is EU then tax = 30% (or some value for a table), AI can see what is being done but rationale is not explicit3) implicit internal requirements - core of how the how the app should work towards achieving your business constraints - code expresses what should be done but really can’t express why. At best it is in the comments
eg if item is “rocket” , shipping = $1m ( we only make rockets in Antarctica and shipping from there is $1m)
4) implicit external requirements - core of how the how the app should work towards achieving your business constraints - code expresses what should be done but really can’t express why. At best it is in the comments
eg if item is “rocket” , add a 3 month gating stage to get approval from government to sell the item and do not collect payment till gating approved - AI can see the code but has no idea why it has to be done
These come from partners, regulation, compliance, auditability etc
So, my theory
AI can be good at the explicit stuff trivially (1, 2) but cannot be good at the implicit stuff (3,4)
It might be able to figure out implicit stuff needs to be done but will probably not be able to figure out why it needs to be done and it will definitely not be able to definitively figure out edge cases for when to do it / not do it
As long as you focus on implicit stuff, you will be fine for a little bit
TL;DR - become good and keep being good at being the person who understands the implicit external drivers of software dev
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I learnt a lot about the domain and how to effectively write programs for it: PCI compliance, double-entry ledgers, escrows, reconciliation, payment lifecycles, bank transfer idempotency, etc.
It was, then, obvious that I should focus my career on becoming an expert on that domain to stand out as a professional and differentiate myself in a field that showed signs of an increasing need for domain specialists."
Comment by stuaxo 2 days ago
He said "Last year, I got hired by a company in the finance workspace.".
Comment by george_max 2 days ago
While I don't want to sound overly pessimistic, the models are improving at a rapid rate. If asked ~3 years ago where the state of the models are today, it would sound like sci-fi if answered, "the models are creating full MVP apps in ~30 minutes with one prompt".
The hurdles the models are facing now, like reducing hallucination rates, ensuring compliance, and keeping a clean codebase, do not seem far away from being resolved IMO. Fetching specific information is already partially done with various MCP servers / RAG.
I am, of course, a bit worried about the future of software engineers. If these quirks are resolved, where do their professions fit in the industry? Delegating tasks to the AI model? Unfortunately, this does not require years of expertise, which is a double-edged sword. Reviewing AI's output? Ask it to explain each line not understood.
I think we will see more waves of larger layoffs, similar to how human computers were replaced by digital computers. To some, doing complex mathematical calculations mentally is a fun task / challenge, but it is ultimately significantly slower and more error-prone than calculating with a computer. In the same way, I think hand-crafting code will be seen as a fun "challenge" and AI will be seen as the "modern-day calculator".
Comment by mrandish 2 days ago
Absolutely true, many things will continue to improve in significant ways. However, if we look at the modern history of rapid disruptions driven by technology (a side interest of mine), persistent patterns emerge. Similar to avalanches or flash floods, such periods of very rapid disruption are often triggered by one or more significant breakthroughs in certain technologies. Early rates of change tend to be fast and furious but eventually begin to taper as recently unlocked low-hanging fruit is harvested and those racing through newly found terrain encounter all-new significant barriers and points of friction. Early in such periods, extrapolating the recent extraordinary rates of change forward has poor predictive power. Sudden extreme bursts tend to regress back toward the long-term trend line.
Arguably, the current disruption in LLMs can be traced to post ~2010 research slowly building to the 2017 transformer paper and the adjacent work it quickly inspired. So today is, arguably, mid or late-ish in the LLM rapid burst phase. The rate of fundamental, broad-based breakthroughs lifting all LLM applications has clearly slowed with many of the most impactful recent discoveries being in scaling, optimization, tuning and productization toward specific domains. That doesn't mean there can't be another transformer breakthrough tomorrow but, historically, black swans rarely travel in flocks.
Comment by thomasahle 2 days ago
To me it definitely feels like it's still accelerating, with the most impactful recent discovery being RL training reasoning models (late '24, early '25).
There's an interesting article called "sigmoids won't save you" https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/the-sigmoids-wont-save-you which argues that (unless you have privileged information) you should always assume a process will continue about as long as it’s continued already. (Lindy's Law)
With that in mind the current disruption should last another 10-15 years (assuming it started in '10 or '17.)
Comment by jvanderbot 2 days ago
I think a _lot_ about stock trading a profession vs algorithmic trading. It was brutal - suicides, many pivoting out to doing car dealership-style work. Probably a 1/10 or 1/20 survivor rate every couple years, with almost all of it a very painful five year period.
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[1]: https://ourworldindata.org/technology-long-run
[2]: https://waitbutwhy.com/2015/01/artificial-intelligence-revol...
Comment by insane_dreamer 2 days ago
What this means is that the disruption across industries not even truly begun, because it's not the generic chatbot models that are going to kill labor, it's all the domain-specific applications that leverage those models to perform work that was performed by humans
Comment by p2detar 2 days ago
Customers may build the software they need entirely in-house or via prompt-engineer consultants, without the need to buy software tools like today. It could be a very very different world.
Comment by rfgplk 2 days ago
Already happening. I know of a few places that have gotten such large gains from LLMs that they know have their engineers working on creating homegrown ports of popular services (Docker etc.).
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I'm sure the very large (and very small) businesses will keep their absolute need for (or the lack of) inhouse developers, but everything in between will probably get compressed to one or two inhouse architects in direct contact with the stakeholders and the rest will be contractors working with Codex-like automation.
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Comment by latentsea 2 days ago
Sounds like a good way to eventually erase those gains.
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Comment by davnicwil 2 days ago
There's also, of course, the not insignificant value in the software itself actually working, being operated, being updated when necessary, all of that. Again just extra hassle no business will want to shoulder when they can just buy something that does it for them.
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Comment by ai_fry_ur_brain 2 days ago
These people are delusional and just repeating delusional vibe coder tweets.
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Comment by bix6 1 day ago
I have personally replaced multiple tools that cost me money every month and now cost me $0/mo. They are low stakes but they work and have near zero maintenance (only changes are me adding features or fixing the occasional bug I missed).
Why would I pay someone even $10/mo when I now have a $0/mo solution?
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Comment by horsawlarway 2 days ago
1. There is value in a tool that solves precisely your needs, in the way you want it solved.
I've repeatedly seen enterprise SaaS purchases where the company ends up wrapping/layering on top additional tooling, software, and infra to solve core needs that are absent (or misaligned) from the saas tooling, but required for their specific usage.
I've directly experienced this with: analytics tooling, customer survey tooling, feature flag tooling, and interview tooling.
If your going to dedicate a dev anyways - the numbers can change here.
Is this every SaaS product for every business? Fuck no - but there are products that might be adjacant to your core business where you have both strong preferences & experience, are already spending for customization, and now it makes sense to pull the whole thing in-house.
2. The 50k/m crm is competing with that 500/m crm. which realistically appears to soon be competing with that 50/m.
Even if we stick with your stated observation that end businesses don't benefit from building their own tooling (which is fair and often true, although I'd wager it's not as clear-cut as you imply) - you're dismissing competition that is absolutely willing to undercut the market because they can slip on quality (slop - as you say) but still serve a need to customers who place cost as the primary buying metric.
If the customer is better served by the 500/m crm, why stop there? Why not go for the 100/m crm? The 50/m crm? Why not chug on down to the lowest possible cost competition, which likely will be 2-5 guys with an llm they ask to go copy "[insert crm of choice]", and then bill just slightly over infra costs.
Or the other thing I'm seeing happen in a lot of spaces right now... the "do it all" SaaS companies, that are pumping out into adjacent verticals that previously would have been too expensive to develop. The bill stays the same, but now it's not just a crm, it's the original crm, plus a clone of all the adjacent market leaders... scheduling, billing & invoicing, marketing, SEO, site hosting and design, social engagement, etc...
One SaaS elbowing into other verticals but keeping the bill the same, which I consider functionally equivalent to the competing on price, just wrapped in a different flavor (it won't be 2 dudes in a basement, it'll be 2 dudes on the "crm" squad in a bigger eng dept).
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Comment by horsawlarway 1 day ago
Sure - I can also get a CRM for 7.50/m as a single seat, solo user. That's not really the same product that these companies want.
Ex - look at the price jump between starter and professional here: https://www.hubspot.com/pricing/marketing
Starter is the "under 10" seats, but they don't have most of the features companies actually want, and the next category is suddenly $266/seat/month. Which is what they really expect enterprises to be paying per seat.
But.... like I said, that leaves a TON of room for getting undercut by a copy-cat company if the only competing metric is "price".
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Comment by Gareth321 2 days ago
[There is plenty of data to support the claim that AI continues to improve, even exponentially.](https://epoch.ai/trends)
As for benchmarks I feel compelled to remind you that as soon as a metric becomes a goal, it ceases to be a useful metric. The models optimise for solving the benchmark and we create new benchmarks to assess broader intelligence. As models converge on 100%, progress obviously slows. That doesn't mean intelligence isn't improving fast. It just means that that benchmark is being well served and we need other benchmarks to assess other forms of intelligence.
I would like to take your bet that we're near the top of the curve. I take the side of Geoffrey Hinton, the Nobel Prize laureate scientist known for his work on artificial neural networks. He believes AI is getting better even faster than he predicted. He estimates that every seven months AI becomes able to handle tasks twice as long.
Comment by camgunz 2 days ago
This doesn't look at all exponential to me: https://epoch.ai/benchmarks?view=graph&tab=eci. OpenAI models went from 137 ECI to 159 ECI over about a year and a half, and the trends are similar for Anthropic and Google. These things have never been exponential.
> The models optimise for solving the benchmark and we create new benchmarks to assess broader intelligence. As models converge on 100%, progress obviously slows.
We are nowhere near 100% on important benchmarks like hallucinations: https://artificialanalysis.ai/evaluations/omniscience?model-...
...also, progress isn't improving with model releases.
---
We're running out of money. While we don't know how much it cost to train things like Claude, most (all?) industry reports indicate that a significant gain in function (2x) would require an exponential amount of resources (20x). No one's yet been able to convince investors that's worth it.
Also, we're running out of data: https://epoch.ai/publications/will-we-run-out-of-data-limits....
Also, we're running out of of low hanging fruit: "We find that the level of compute needed to achieve a given level of performance has halved roughly every 8 months, with a 95% confidence interval of 5 to 14 months. This represents extremely rapid progress, outpacing algorithmic progress in many other fields of computing and the 2-year doubling time of Moore’s Law that characterizes improvements in computing hardware (see Figure 2)." (https://epoch.ai/publications/algorithmic-progress-in-langua...). Maybe you think we'll continue along this breakneck pace, but again no investor thinks that, which is why prices are going up (investment is drying up).
Also we're running out of compute. Data center projects are stalling. Some of this is spiking energy prices, some of this is politics, much of this is grid constraints and supply chain problems: https://tech-insider.org/us-ai-data-center-delays-cancellati....
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Finally, and perhaps worst of all, despite unprecedented investment data on the productivity gains is mixed. This is the biggest difference from other technological leaps like electricity, the industrial revolution, literally fire, etc. Those things were immediately, undeniably more productive. AI is not like that. You're not seeing an AI Microsoft, an AI Salesforce, an AI Oracle, an AI SAP, etc. You can argue that their advantages are structural, but there are no successful AI-powered alternative products (no AI Office, no AI ERP, no AI database, etc).
Comment by andy12_ 2 days ago
Ehm, no? DeepSWE[1] for example shows that new models like gpt-5.5 continue to show big improvements compared to older models.
> Also prices are going up.
Prices for frontier intelligence have gone up, but prices for the same level of intelligence have gone way down (what you can get for pennies now was SOTA just a couple of years ago). The pareto frontier is still expanding.
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Comment by Cherryontop11 2 days ago
When 100% does not exist. Most software out there has issues, bugs, compliance problems, security weaknesses, scaling, redundancy, availability issues...etc. A lot of this is not actually related to how good or bad software engineers are. It's about costs and time to ROI. Greed is an issue too.
So people seem to have this idea that software created by humans is perfect (its not). And that deterministic (human created software with if/then) is alway going to be better than probabilistic (LLMs). Which in a perfect world is the case, but we live in a capitalistic world where this is not the case.
Comment by ai_brain_rot 1 day ago
The point is when you pay for human made software from a saas, those problems are not your problem!
You get the saas company to fix it, and it they won’t you go to one of their competitors. If you reroll in house you’re now responsible for every bug
Comment by rfgplk 2 days ago
This. But instead of 700 it's more likely that everyone will be a founder (more or less). It's already scary how easy it is to launch an MVP or produce prototypes with the latest models.
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Comment by Rhainur 2 days ago
The app really is just several simple forms with some if/else logic, but claude code allowed them to get the app up and running and deployed on vercel's free tier, and it's Good Enough™ to save them an hour or so each day lost in messaging and chasing up things.
I don't think anyone would ever have targeted an app for sale to them, and it would have been hard to twist some sort of flow management app and integrate it with Zapier or something to handle external api calls. With claude code they could just tell it what they wanted and solve their very niche issue. That's why I think that even though LLM coding has improved so much you might not see more software for sale - it's easier for people to just...make their own software.
Comment by sponaugle 1 day ago
I have seem several people use AI to write apps to automate a process and along they way finally ask the question 'do we even need this process?'.
Regrettably this does not happen everywhere.
Comment by weakfish 1 day ago
That said, I meant more like production grade apps that have to serve N>1, which is IME where the hard part LLMs suck at comes in. I saw a tweet somewhere along the lines of “CEOs/execs are so divorced from the last mile effort that they are uniquely susceptible to believing AI can replace engineers end to end”
Comment by timr 2 days ago
No it isn’t. The things that were hard are now harder. The things that were comparatively easy are now easier. But if you build another piece of vibe-coded crap in a world awash in vibe-coded crap, you will not stand out. Nobody cares about your unpolished, one-shot prototype, so cranking them out faster is not really helpful.
Differentiation is always a problem of effort and care, and this isn’t going to change.
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Ironically, I don’t think tech support is going to be fully replaced by these anytime soon. That’s one place you definitely need to have actual people talking to other people. Lawyers and doctors are gonna be legally protected too because you still need a human to sign off on all those actions though we will probably need far fewer.
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Comment by IAmGraydon 2 days ago
The first one-shot app was created with ChatGPT in June 2023 - 3 years ago. In my experience, the current result of one-shotting apps is just as bad today as it was back then.
What “full MVP app” are you talking about? I know of none that have been anywhere near production ready. With all due respect, I think you’re portraying fantasy as reality. I would love to be proven wrong.
Comment by latentsea 2 days ago
Hard disagree. Take a good SaaS starter template and do a bunch of harness engineering. You can get an agent to shit out production grade stuff. You might argue that's cheating, but there's nothing stopping you from doing it, and it works. It's only getting better too.
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Comment by petesergeant 2 days ago
Hard to respond to this with anything other than "no, you're wrong".
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Comment by petesergeant 2 days ago
> It's really important to me you make sensible decisions here, and don't bother me with the small stuff. I want a plant-watering app me and my wife can share, that shows who watered which plants in our house. I'll deploy this on my home server with Coolify. The app should be attractive, work both on desktop and mobile. We have a bunch of cases where we have multiples of one plant type. We'll need separate users, but don't go overboard with auth. I want to impress her, so let's lean on the side of more rather than fewer, features, but I don't really wanna run anything that won't just fit in a single container with some persistent storage. We're the only two users who'll ever actually give this a go. Visually attractive is important to me.
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Comment by sensanaty 2 days ago
Also MVP apps are great and all, but I've seen 0 evidence of actually useful software from all this tooling, if anything all the software I'm using has just become more buggy and less reliable over time
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Comment by coldtea 2 days ago
Not really. It will be a cuttthroat landscape, and the scope wont matter as much anymore. First because everyone else will equally be able to throw LLMs at the scope, but also because the scope has natural limits: your market fit, customer expectations, and (for software/hw products) physical world/manufacturing limitations.
They'll want to reduce their margins.
Comment by rsalus 2 days ago
It will certainly be a cutthroat landscape for engineers, but companies will be building _more_ capacity, not less. In other words, the demand won't disappear for skilled technical labor, it will just move higher up the value chain.
Comment by coldtea 2 days ago
They will still totally be, because the capacity to do so was never coupled to labor, it was coupled to domain knowledge, client network, other players dominating the market, and so on...
Comment by insane_dreamer 2 days ago
1) they won't, they'll just cut costs
or
2) they will, but unless it's a new scope or one that can absorb growth, they'll just be competing with other companies in the space and taking away business from them
either way, labor loses
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Comment by dudusxnnx 2 days ago
Polarizing and unable to process nuance? Check.
Biased, arrogant and hypocritical? Check.
My god, you’re the perfect developer. You’ll fit right in. Have a seat.
Comment by jorisw 2 days ago
Comment by torben-friis 2 days ago
LLMs routinely fail at our business specifics: Local tax regulations, particularities of the accounting process, specifics of our ledger implementations. They're great at refactoring, translating between languages, tracing bugs on existing code even, but there is always many things subtly wrong iterating and expanding our domain.
This might be because the companies I worked for happen to be tackling complex domains precisely for moat-building reasons. They stay in business explicitly because there's not a book out there you can read to build a clone, the knowhow stays inside.
Also, a fintech whose managers recommend speeding up design docs with AI sounds way too careless to be in the money handling business. It's way, way too easy to end up with millions incorrectly allocated, particularly if you deal with high volumes of small transactions. These bugs are always a bitch to deal with because correcting the logic is just step one, you then have to correct all the wrongly calculated data in immutable DBs, move around the red tape and client comms, and your fix is bound to become a gotcha that new features and observability have to take into account ("remember that there's a bump in the data in february 2 because we had incident X".)
Comment by odeono 2 days ago
This is the case perhaps 95% of the time.
Oversight is very important, and architectural thinking cannot yet be outsourced, only execution.
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Comment by bobro 1 day ago
I'm sure this is just a slip of the tongue (finger), but the idea of being a numerical googol times slower is funny.
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Comment by anon7725 2 days ago
It’s the same as a “non-coding architect” role (remember those). Most of them are absolutely full of shit architecture astronauts.
Comment by ex-aws-dude 2 days ago
Like its only focused on solving the local problem as easy as possible
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Comment by mellosouls 2 days ago
This is domain expertise - software engineers are not needed for that. Ofc often senior sws are expert in it, but they aren't necessary.
Traditionally its been useful for frictionless production to have engineers to be able to do maybe 90% of their work without consulting the business experts but this is the whole crux of the moment TFA discusses - "tradition" is over.
In this new world its now the job of a senior engineer not to have this domain expertise themselves, but to know how to ensure the agents have it, or can acquire it and it be verifiably correct.
Senior engineers who hang on to the idea that their advanced business domain expertise makes them safe will soon be as dead in the water as juniors who haven't pivoted.
Comment by torben-friis 2 days ago
Our engineers frequently need to be on the loop with product and stakeholders: Due to real world messiness, many times the only true answer to "how does this currently work" is in the code. Enabling product and stakeholders to fetch that knowledge would be a giant time saver, so we've experimented with LLMs.
I recommend you try this exercise: place a non technical person in front of a complex business' codebase with an agent in between and get them to extract or shape business knowledge through it.
I'm serious, it's not a rethorical device, genuinely do try with a coworker or a friend. It will teach you a lot seeing how the way they approach the problem is different to yours.
All our attempts failed miserably.
Comment by mellosouls 2 days ago
I'm not suggesting that and agree it would fail. Engineer expertise is important, but not in the old way.
Comment by mikeocool 2 days ago
I want to work with the business domain experts you work with. The ones I’ve worked with are experts in their domain, not modeling that domain in software.
Left to their own devices with Claude Code, they produce some great POCs. Then those POCs buckle under their own weight they pile on contradicting requirements and have opus spinning to fix bugs.
Maybe the models will get good enough to solve for this, but they’re not there yet.
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Comment by causal 2 days ago
They are very good at writing code and debugging visible errors- but that's like 50% the harness.
Comment by enraged_camel 2 days ago
My company also deals with a lot of complex regulations and domain-specific system implementations, which AIs used to struggle with. We were able to solve the problem with well-organized claude.md/agents.md files. On top of that we also implemented supermemory.ai, so newly made decisions are always recalled by AI agents when starting new sessions.
Comment by worldthruword 2 days ago
Would a skill which forces you and LLM to reach a shared understanding of the product features and the regulations those features are supposed to capture be of help here? The main idea is we provide documents to the LLM and it asks lot of questions which clear ambiguity and possible misconceptions the LLM might have. I would suggest please take a look at skills. They are really helpful.
Comment by rdedev 2 days ago
This kind of works but the difficulty is that you have to be very explicit about everything. It was mentioned in a spec document that a particular excel file is treated as a source of truth throughout the whole company and it is treated as an append only database. The agent still decided to add a check to see if a previous row was modified. It pushed back on its decision when asked why it decided to do so. "What if someone entered it wrong and had to correct it"? Valid question but it's not my teams responsibility to check for it
This check makes sense from a traditional development view point and that's why the agent did it. I would say it's good practice too but it's beyond the scope of the project it was working on. If what you are doing is beyond the norm you have to watch out for things like this
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Comment by athrowaway3z 2 days ago
So there is a spectrum here, and i dont know what i dont know - meaning i can just be wrong. But we're both on that spectrum and are you sure its not a skill issue?
All of the specifics you list seems so fundamental that in similar projects I've inserted them straight into the AGENTS.md or a strong reference and where to look them up.
If you boil it down to it, you're quite literally saying the problem is the LLMs dont have access to a bunch of facts.
Comment by torben-friis 2 days ago
Well yeah, And our problem with mortality is not having access to a bunch of medical facts :)
Kidding aside, it's a fair question. We have several problems with that approach:
One, today they miss X tomorrow Y. You can iteratively add information and get better, but everyone who's had to keep a large company's documentation updated and consistent knows how absolutely hard of a problem that is. Still, this is not the main issue.
Two, knowledge extraction is not clean. We face this daily. "There was no incident on may 12" could mean any of:
- "There was no incident on may 12"
- "There was an incident I was not aware of"
- "There was an incident, but I'm a contractor who has to pay if there's an incident so I'm not admitting shit"
- "There may have been an incident, who knows, I secretly told chatgpt to handle this task for me"
- "Something went wrong but I don't consider it an incident because that particular error has been popping up every wednesday since I joined the company and I was told to ignore it"
- "there was an incident when I touched something you told me not to touch so I will firmly deny there was an incident"
You won't get the LLM to navigate that human problem. You might think that's tech debt and dysfunctionality, but it is real life. It's the same problem as with self driving cars, it's semi easy until you introduce toddlers running after a ball in the middle of a road, drunk drivers and unfixed potholes.
Three, and this is the main issue, surfacing. Skills, agents, etc work for obvious connections like "I'm writing a test => we test with framework x in a style y". they do not work as well for indirect connections like: "If I correct the amount of these past payments' insterests, for a minority of them it might raise the total amount above a certain threshold where we were supposed to have required extra information due to money laundering regulations, and I need to contact legal to see what we do since it's not possible to request the extra info after the fact"
The problem is that the set of things to potentially surface is giant and LLM's fail miserably at connecting what to surface where. It's what we usually refer to as the "spidey sense"/"shitdar" of senior engs. LLMs might get better with time, but so far the ability isn't there.
Comment by alkonaut 1 day ago
As a fun experiment, yesterday I asked a model to create this for me. It almost one shotted it. After a couple of iterations and 30 minutes I had made what I made over two years. The total AI cost (deepseek api, so entirely usage based) was $0.5.
Now, I didn't enjoy making this AI guided version. And I didn't learn anything. But terrifyingly it has removed the drive to make another 2 year project "by hand". The end result (the runnihg demo) was never the goal. But still I can't now make myself hand-craft what an AI can spit out in an hour for $1!
This is what bothers me the most. I'm old and senior enough that I don't fear for my job. But the AI thing just swallowed my hobby.
Comment by clktmr 1 day ago
Comment by aws_ls 1 day ago
It happened fast, as you prompted it just the right way. Another person, who doesn't have all that context in the mind, would fail quickly.
For example I have decades of Software experience, but wont know where to even begin what OP did.
Comment by patrulek 22 hours ago
Simple, you start by asking LLM for more info.
Comment by skydhash 1 day ago
It’s kinda the old saying about $900/hr expert that only taps with an hammer. The price is not about tapping, it’s about knowing where to tap.
Comment by alkonaut 1 day ago
Comment by Cthulhu_ 1 day ago
But this has always been a developer's work, it's understanding what is needed, translating it to working software, and judging the result, and doing so at scale, over time, and with other people.
Comment by port11 1 day ago
That’s my take on this, at least. I’ll never be very good at Scythe, or the most creative role-player, certainly never managed to do anything beautiful in pottery class (although the glazing is pretty).
That’s fine. I achieve enough in other areas ._.
Comment by __alias 1 day ago
I don't know, I'd feel this way a little. if it's something that's not obvious how much effort goes into the underlying process, it can feel pretty deflating if the craft behind it has felt like it's eliminated.
I can't really think of a good example, but if my hobby was glueing precision glueing little 3d models, then suddenly the hobby has exploded because 3d printers have made it easy, it suddenly feels like it's devalued my collection of manually crafted plastic models
Comment by port11 1 day ago
Aside: I had to get into puzzling to manage stress, my doctor actually ‘prescribed’ it, and hours go by while you mindlessly hunt for sky-blue pieces. There’s no point thinking about people that puzzle faster than you :)
I think we need to enjoy the process of things more. Life is precious. If someone else does your thing harder/faster/better/stronger, what are you gonna do? Doom-scroll? Nah, enjoy your special little thing.
Comment by mistercow 9 hours ago
So first off, I mean, of course you didn't, right? You had already learned most of what you were going to learn from this specific project by doing it by hand.
But yes, if you use AI to do projects that might have been at the edge of your abilities pre-AI, you will learn a lot less. The solution, I've found, is to get more ambitious until you're back to the edge of your abilities even with AI. You should be asking the agent questions like "has anyone tried?" and keep pushing until it isn't sure, and you're not sure you have any idea what you're doing. Then ask questions until you feel like you sort of know what you're doing, and verify your understanding by directing the agent to build.
Comment by bobro 1 day ago
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Comment by wccrawford 1 day ago
I also don't fear for my job, but it's because I was already laid off 1.5 years ago, right at the start of this AI boom. :/
However, I love coding with the AI. I can get it to handle all the crap that I know what it should look like, but don't want to spend the time doing myself. Instead, I get to focus on making the thing work well and do what I want. I am so much happier coding with it than without it.
Now if I can just find a job to do it in, I'll be set. :/
Comment by agumonkey 1 day ago
Such fuzzy times...
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Comment by hmokiguess 2 days ago
What I think is often overlooked is the human "Willingness" and "Care" of staying with the thing for the lack of a better term. What I mean by that is that a lot of people just don't care enough, or don't want to, build, maintain, and own things. Sure you can ship V1 faster, but will you remain on the grind?
I think a great example of what probably will happen is found in Suno, the AI Music thing. I don't know if y'all have tried it, but it now produces really good stuff. What's happening there? A lot of people play with their own little universe and get tired quickly, move away from it, and only a few prolific creators stay and turn it into a "job like" environment.
We may have shifted the scale and the economics of "delegation" and "execution" but I think there are still a lot of other factors to consider.
Comment by GuB-42 2 days ago
I played with it a bit, and no, it doesn't! And I am talking as someone with limited music culture, musicians are likely to be even more critical.
For the first few tries, it sounds impressive and the tunes are catchy. It used to sound wrong in the background but they mostly (but not completely) fixed that. However, after a few dozen songs, it starts to always sound the same. It is all generic stuff, the songs tell no story, it is a bit like the kind of music that accompany corporate advertisement. You can try to be more precise in your prompt, but I never had any success, it will just ignore most of the details that could make your song interesting.
The most interesting result I had was actually when I managed to get it off rails, a bug more or less. I asked it to mix two very different genres together, and it made something unsettling in a way I don't remember hearing before. But as always, further working on it proved extremely difficult, as it always tried to go back to making generic stuff, ignoring the details you give it.
Suno can do remixes though. And it is a bit like with code. LLMs are very good at porting, when you already have something that works, it can make it work in another language. But if you just have an idea, it will screw up at anything original. If you want a LLM to implement your idea properly, you have to give it so much guidance that it amounts to writing the code yourself, while struggling with the ambiguousness of natural languages.
Comment by monegator 2 days ago
i actually was discussing that with a guy i met the other day, an old school producer, did succesful stuff 30 years ago. He used SUNO to reinterpret old and ideas of his, in his judgement it did an excellent job and lets him create many songs daily if he want.
Sounds familliar? the good old "let AI be steered by experienced X and boost productivity".
All in all, gun to the head, i think i am so critical because to use these tools is surrendering to big corpos. It is not a democratic tool. If it was i would probably be using it. I have finally given up and started messing with local models (well, i did already with images) but general local models are useless.
OR maybe it's me? i cannot for one moment let go and converse with the machine. I can give order to the machine.
The tech is fantastic, but the fact that it's in the hand of corpos with all interests in never letting us be able to do shit without them, makes me one hundred and one percent against it.
Comment by hootz 2 days ago
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Comment by CamperBob2 2 days ago
It'll happen, eventually. How could it not?
Comment by atomicnumber3 2 days ago
Comment by Applejinx 2 days ago
The problem is that it's doing it by diffusion techniques, so all its high percussion is totally vague and indistinct. Hell, it can't even do a decent psy kick because that too is unspecific and you can't have a psy track that is vague and blunted.
Turns out you can have a production that is hollow, weak and devoid of what makes purely synth machine tracks. It can't get trancey in a serious way because it's not capable of being sharp enough.
Got an example of the genre done properly: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Va1KBtI81TY or alternately you could just look up some Infected Mushroom early tracks :)
Comment by alchemism 2 days ago
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Comment by NewsaHackO 2 days ago
I think this is a huge part of the reason people sometimes find AI criticism so dismissible; there is always some factor other than the actual product it seems that AI-made assets are judged on. With Suno, the biggest ones I've seen are 1) hating AI-created music by virtue of it being AI-created, and 2) the hate is from people who attempt to generate income from their music production, and Suno made music cuts into that pie.
Comment by hibgymnb 2 days ago
The most appealing part of my favrorite music is the human element. When I hear someone singing and I know they mean it.
When they tell me a story and I can tell it’s genuine.
When I can relate to what they’re saying and who they are as a human.
Suno will never be able to recreate that.
Comment by pickleRick243 2 days ago
Not hating it on principle would be something like "Suno-produced music I've listened to is derivative/soulless and has that annoying AI quality that makes me want to turn it off immediately. Maybe one day it could produce something genuinely moving and beautiful, but I'm skeptical."
Comment by customguy 2 days ago
They didn't even say they "hate" other music, either, just that it's not their favorite.
If someone says "I only like green paintings", that excludes red paintings, even ones that have the word "green" written on them. Nothing to "fix" there, if anything, the question is why some people just won't accept that. They are acting oddly, not the people who know what they like and why.
Comment by pickleRick243 1 day ago
Comment by customguy 1 day ago
Followed by how to be properly open-minded and not an AI-hater. Yeah, you didn't use those exact words either, but that was the implication.
And "liking humans", that is, preferring them in music (of all things!) isn't "hating AI".
Comment by pickleRick243 1 day ago
Comment by ai_brain_rot 1 day ago
AI can’t recreate that.
It can create sounds that are pleasing to the ears, but music is so much more than that.
Comment by LtWorf 2 days ago
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Comment by spacechild1 2 days ago
More generally, we think that music (and art in general) is a form of human expression and communication. The very idea of AI music just seems absurd, as it completely misses the point of what constitutes music as an artform. Why should I listen to something that has been produced entirely without human intent? Why should I prefer a cheap simulacrum over the original?
Comment by skor 1 day ago
Comment by odeono 2 days ago
By giving up that control, you do get to a quality end result sooner, but that end result can only be an approximation to your original vision, since you're giving up the control required to shape the sound to that granular level.
Comment by andyfilms1 2 days ago
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Comment by gedy 2 days ago
It's like any LLM, it's not a tool for if you know exactly what you want with all these knobs and fine grained controls.
> The most interesting result I had was actually when I managed to get it off rails, a bug more or less. I asked it to mix two very different genres together, and it made something unsettling in a way I don't remember hearing before.
I don't think that's a bug or unexpected, it's what AI is good for. I do these (very) old Blues covers of modern songs and it's terrific at that sort of conversion thing.
Comment by GuB-42 2 days ago
In this particular case, it really gave some "uncanny valley" feeling. That is, on the surface, it sounds like something familiar, but something is off. The wrongness was completely unintended, not prompted for, but interesting, in the same way that eldritch horror is interesting.
I wanted to mix heavy metal and hardstyle, the idea I had in mind was to imagine a battle, one side being represented by one style, and the other, by another style, each side responding to the other. It didn't give that much thought to it, but it sounded fun. And instead of getting the back and forth I expected, I got... weirdness.
I then tried to add some matching lyrics, that is, something similarly uncanny, also using AI. It also turned out to be somewhat difficult and not all LLMs managed to pull it off (ended up with GPT-5.5). That is, for many LLMs, especially the small, self-hosted ones, I couldn't get the effect I wanted, even after trying different prompt strategies. Scary words, spooky scenes, etc... no problem, but that's the opposite of what I wanted. I wanted something subtly wrong, not an B movie horror scene. Also, by adding the lyrics to the song, Suno lost a bit of an edge to the song.
If you are interested, here are the links, with and without lyrics. Don't expect anything good, it is just a little experiment: https://suno.com/s/Amu1FcrjkHsB2WTt , https://suno.com/s/gXMfNnv1g453PiaS
Comment by gedy 2 days ago
https://suno.com/song/a24e349b-de3b-4f98-a733-f7f70949571f
https://suno.com/s/Ff9n8A7R9k7iTpBD
I definitely come from the angle of appreciating the novelty and newness of sound from this generated music, especially when tasked with mashups. I'd not use if I had a strong vision around refining a particular song though, maybe that's the challenge with the "battle" inspiration you were after.
FYI though you can give some hints to the generation about what you want, if you look at the 'lyrics' for the two instrumental songs above you'll see them in the brackets.
Comment by doctorpangloss 2 days ago
Comment by citrin_ru 2 days ago
Comment by onlyrealcuzzo 2 days ago
They don't "solve" execution.
If you're willing to push them enough, and put in place the system that they can actually get working code, they can solve execution - but that IS engineering!!
They are far from doing that by default now (replacing engineering).
Maybe in 3 years. They're moving fast.
But you can't ask them to build you a better Rust compiler, sit back and watch, and get a result today.
Comment by riazrizvi 2 days ago
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Comment by pigpop 2 days ago
That is what takes determination and why you have to really care about the thing you are trying to sell to people. You have to stick to it before they will stick to it.
Comment by polotics 2 days ago
https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.sixteenam....
Comment by yudidnmkating 2 days ago
Comment by worldthruword 2 days ago
https://x.com/chamath/status/2033385903520129161
> I think a great example of what probably will happen is found in Suno, the AI Music thing. I don't know if y'all have tried it, but it now produces really good stuff. What's happening there? A lot of people play with their own little universe and get tired quickly, move away from it, and only a few prolific creators stay and turn it into a "job like" environment.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sturgeon%27s_law
Sturgeon's law states, "Ninety percent of everything is crap". The adage was coined by American science fiction author and critic Theodore Sturgeon while defending the merits of the genre. Sturgeon observed that most works in any field were low quality. Therefore, science fiction was not uniquely inferior.
Comment by treszkai 1 day ago
Steve Jobs didn't mean "writing good code" as "execution", he meant "making things that align with how people want to use the product". Frontier LLMs are not solving Steve Jobs-level execution (even in the near future) because what that would mean understanding human nature – something that Steve Jobs or Henry Ford were much better than most in the industry today, so at best we're going to see LLMs making things that are as good as the majority of products. Because AI does not see whether something is perfect-according-to-Steve-Jobs or merely good-code-according-to-engineering-practices.
Comment by xpct 2 days ago
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Comment by bryceneal 2 days ago
In this case, it's difficult for me to see what exactly is gained by offloading all of those decisions to a mean regression algorithm. I agree it's a fun toy, but I can't imagine actually listening to or deeply enjoying any song made with these music models.
I could imagine it being used successfully in some targeted part of the process. For example, manipulating drums or changing the timbre of some previously recorded instrument. In that case it's not much different than traditional music creation tools like sampling.
Comment by caymanjim 2 days ago
Good ideas are expensive. They're expensive because you have to weed through all the bad ones to identify them, find a market, and turn them into a product. You don't know that from the start, which is why the landscape is littered with millions of dead projects from thousands of dead companies.
Even if the execution were cheap and implementation were perfect, if the starting idea was bad, it's all been a waste.
Ideas aren't cheap, because bad ideas are expensive and good ideas cost money to vet.
Comment by brikym 2 days ago
Comment by larodi 2 days ago
As an information architect I find it amazing it works so good, but is useless to me except being a great think to play with… a toy really. I’m much more fascinated by Strudel.cc and LLMs do a great job to educate me into it, myself being mostly an autodidact.
As a dev I struggle to maintain coherence with Claude Code even though I’ve piped more than 10b tokens since Jan. Certain trivial stuff is easily remedied but even more devil lives in abundance of details now. So the task moves one level above in terms of abstraction, but is not solved.
If guys were good at typing one and the same thing in one and the same lang, which is nothing wrong about given how crafts went for ages, then they will be struggling to compete with the GPTs. But if they are in the architectural and operational perspective … well - work and demand just increased, so please stop whining.
Comment by cautiouscat 2 days ago
Does it? It produces passable stuff that is fine. However the lack of passion and care completely disinterests me.
Comment by 28304283409234 2 days ago
Comment by wallstop 2 days ago
It's great that people find joy in it, but as someone that is critical of both music production and fidelity, the current offerings fall incredibly short of anything I would ever want to listen to.
Comment by UlisesAC4 2 days ago
It is the whole business flow chain of value to the end user what is valuable.
Comment by squidsoup 2 days ago
Suno doesn't make music, it makes simulacra of music. Music is only made by humans.
Comment by matkoniecz 2 days ago
No. I assumed that at best it will be not better than average human-made music available to listeners.
> but it now produces really good stuff.
Does it? Do you have examples?
(note: I actually do not care about all "hand-made" and have no preference for once-off over serially made products)
Comment by barrell 2 days ago
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Comment by stevenhuang 2 days ago
The high watermark of what can be "solved" (read: one shotted) is rising, and will continue to rise. Look at the gig economy (Fiver etc) for simple programming/design tasks, LLMs have taken over completely with their execution.
Comment by lqstuart 2 days ago
The same is true for LLMs. You can get Claude to spew 2,000 lines of garbage in 15 minutes, but the number of developers actually willing to sit there and reason over the output and make the tweaks--often very minimal tweaks--that make it go from 90% correct to 100% correct are vanishingly few. And it's typically just laziness and a lack of any kind of genuine interest in the field.
Comment by fantasizr 2 days ago
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Comment by onlyrealcuzzo 2 days ago
The future is going to be different.
Right now, people effectively spend ~0% of their time entertaining themselves with their own music, art, writing, film, etc.
In the future, it's going to be >0%.
Will it be >10%? Who knows.
Comment by spacechild1 2 days ago
First, the 0% figure is not true. People do write stories, play instruments or draw pictures.
Second, everybody who really feels a desire to express themselves creatively has akready been able to do so. Nothing was stopping you from writing poems, drawing pictures or picking up an instrument. Recording music has never been so easy. The "problem" is, of course, that it takes some effort. LLMs seem to provide a convenient shortcut, but you effectively skip the whole artistic process.
IMO it's better to either engage with existing great art or make an honest and humble attempt at creating your own art. You will learn so much more about music by trying to learn the piano or guitar than by prompting Suno.
Comment by onlyrealcuzzo 2 days ago
And who said it has?
You seem to imply that you can't have created any art ever in your life if you ever did anything with AI.
It's almost as if you can do both, and it's almost as if you're open-minded you can appreciate either when it's worth appreciating.
Sorry, I've seen just as much thoughtless garbage from humans as from AI...
The human touch is not automatically genius, and the AI touch is not automatically derivative trash...
Comment by spacechild1 2 days ago
You've claimed that "right now, people effectively spend ~0% of their time entertaining themselves with their own music, art, writing, film, etc."
So I assumed that you don't spend your time with traditional creative pastimes or don't know any people who do. Otherwise I don't understand how you would come up with the ~0% figure.
> You seem to imply that you can't have created any art ever in your life if you ever did anything with AI.
I did not say that you can't use any AI tools in the creative process, but anyone who has ever tried to create their own art will not confuse the verbatim output of AI models like Suno or Midjourney with actual art.
> The human touch is not automatically genius,
I never claimed that. The nice thing is that there is so much existing art/music out there that you can easily choose the things you like.
I understand that prompting Suno can be a fun pastime for some people, just don't confuse it with actual music or art.
> Sorry, I've seen just as much thoughtless garbage from humans as from AI...
Yes, there is lots of thoughtless garbage music made by humans, but all AI generated music is thoughtless by definition. AI models do not have thoughts or intentions, they are developed to mimick human thought and intent.
> and the AI touch is not automatically derivative trash...
Generating whole songs with Suno very much is. These models are designed to be derivative. AI tools can be used effectively and responsibly in the creative process, but only as a tool among other tools. Prompting Suno is not a replacement for actual music making or production.
Comment by onlyrealcuzzo 2 days ago
LOL - so let me guess, 99% of people never create anything resembling art?
AI regularly spits out better derivative crap than 99% of the derivative crap humans spit out...
Comment by spacechild1 2 days ago
I don't see how that follows.
> AI regularly spits out better derivative crap than 99% of the derivative crap humans spit out...
It's not only derivative, it also lacks any thought, intent or communicative effort.
Why should I listen to AI slop when there is lots of great human made music to choose from?
Yes, some AI music might sound better than the worst human made music, but should this really be the baseline?
Comment by onlyrealcuzzo 1 day ago
So does most "human" art...
> Why should I listen to AI slop when there is lots of great human made music to choose from?
Hmm, I dunno, maybe because if you play around with it you might generate something that's close enough to what you wanted to listen to. Maybe you won't. Maybe not everyone is you and some people have different tastes...
Almost nobody could generate a good enough song or story or video or graphic or whatever in the fraction of time it takes with Gen AI.
For some people (clearly you are not one of them) - that is good and fun and entertaining in a new way that simply was impossible to get in the same amount of time / effort.
Comment by spacechild1 1 day ago
> So does most "human" art...
That's just not true. Everybody who tries to write their own songs, write their stories or draw their own pictures does it with at least some thought or intent.
> Hmm, I dunno, maybe because if you play around with it you might generate something that's close enough to what you wanted to listen to.
That might work for some music, if you only care about the surface. But even then, why not simply pick some good existing human art? By choose the simulacrum?
The things you generate with Suno are not really your art anyway. That's an illusion that these companies want to sell. It's like you invite your friend who plays the guitar and can sing, ask him/her to play a few songs and then pick the one you like. Would you claim that it's your music?
> Almost nobody could generate a good enough song or story or video or graphic or whatever in the fraction of time it takes with Gen AI.
There's a fundamental misunderstanding about creativity/art. It's just as much about the process as the end result. You shouldn't expect your output to match that of professional studios or masters of the craft without putting in the time, effort (and money). That's just hybris. There's a reason why things like the DIY movement, punk, indie games, B movies, etc. exist. Everybody can already create art within their means and limits. If you write and record your own song, you can be proud of that. You don't have to sound like a professional pop artist. By prompting Suno, on the other hand, you have accomplished nothing.
> that is good and fun and entertaining in a new way that simply was impossible to get in the same amount of time / effort.
As I said, I see how it can be fun and entertaining. I played around with Udio myself and I got some funny results. Just don't confuse it with actual art or music making.
Comment by adi_kurian 2 days ago
Comment by zkmon 2 days ago
Ride the wave. You rode it when websites/webapps were the wave. I came into software industry before internet, kept changing my horse. You are never too old to learn new tricks. The new wave create new kind of work and workers. Be one of them. Ride the beast, master the tools. It's the same game again.
Comment by ddingus 2 days ago
If there is any skill in consistent demand it is the ability to wrap your head around the new work, new processes, new people, whatever it all may be.
For me, understanding and development of this skill into a keen tool happened while I worked as a prototype mechamic. For those unfamiliar, a prototype mechanic does what it takes to make often demanding parts on consistently short timelines week after week.
Metals, plastics, you name it.
One gets good at ramping up on processes, machine tools, materials. And after doing that for a while, you end up able to very rapidly absorb new info and understand work far more quickly and accurately than many.
Anyone can start this.
Just get curious and build things. Then build more things.
Share your builds and build things other people want made!
Comment by chasd00 2 days ago
Comment by AnimalMuppet 2 days ago
If so, how did you get to that point? How did you publicize that you can do this?
Comment by Verdex 2 days ago
Overall society feels more turbulent, but this is otherwise all the same song and dance all over again.
The 90s and 00s had this wave of "object oriented programming changes everything". Hey we're doing this thing that's been done successfully 100s of times before, but now it's OO. Writing some code in involving an airplane? Just purchase this omni-airplane object that does everything for airplanes (an actual thing I was told in college).
That's weird OO isn't the be all end all? Code gen, get this Ruby on rails running. Look at me building this website in two seconds. Code gen everywhere.
Huh, that's going to a funny place... TDD. If you aren't TDDing then you're such a bad engineer that you should be locked in prison (real conversation I observed). Oh wait, not TDD, BDD. That fixes it.
Lean, no Agile, no agile like with a small a ... but it was first, no scrum, no xml wait that was last decade, json, and finally SAFe.
Hey, have you seen this chat bot thingy?
Every iteration brings good stuff if you're paying attention. But it also brings a lot of hype and anxiety. Experiment and learn.
The one thing that's remained constant for me is that nearly everyone would rather die than to think carefully about the consequences of their dreams coming true. And as long as that remains true they'll continue to pay for someone else to ride the hype dragon on their behalf.
Comment by mschuster91 2 days ago
The thing is... everything you mentioned had only brought the need to retrain.
This new hotness AI? It's bringing actual layoffs, and not just of the boom bust cycle kind, but permanent, industrial-revolution kind that lasts for decades.
Comment by Verdex 2 days ago
Covid overhiring, no more 0% interest rates, that one accounting change, and companies needing a "growth" sounding way to announce layoffs. Maybe that's bringing actual layoffs in the name of AI?
Comment by mschuster91 2 days ago
That is only compounding the problem, because with each year, IT still gets a truckload of new bootcamp or "academia" graduates that hit the pool of the unemployed.
Comment by neta1337 2 days ago
Comment by mschuster91 2 days ago
And even those that don't do layoffs, have you looked at open job postings recently? It's all dried up, and to a large degree because C levels are waiting for the "cambrian explosion" of AI. A lot of the infamous "bullshit job" list is in serious danger of getting eliminated by AI.
Comment by gilbetron 1 day ago
Comment by Verdex 1 day ago
Okay?
> existential angst
I don't know, maybe there's just too many juniors on social media posing as senors spreading existential angst? I mean if GC was introduced in a time where there was an engagement AI spreading dread far and wide then I suspect we could have had the same thing.
I certainly wish people would be less sad, but I'm not sure that means that things are meaningfully different on a technical level.
Comment by dodu_ 2 days ago
Except the entire value proposition of these tools is that there is no skill or mastery to be built.
The entire slop factory workflow, or sorry I mean "AI-native" workflow is:
"Woah, I cajoled a chatbot into building something I don't understand at all, I'm so good at my job!"
It's the participation trophy of building. Something else builds it, I take credit for it despite not understanding much about about it. There's no compounding return on my effort. No lessons learned. No understanding built. No insights gleaned for possible future innovation. No differentiation. Just mind-numbingly screaming into a void until the slot machine shits out some slop amalgam that seems "good enough", and then I do it all again the next day.
If that's the game, count me out. It's nice that others apparently enjoy it, I guess. But to think there's any sort of mastery here is delusion. The only requirement to be "successful" with these tools is to stop giving a shit and surrender to it.
Comment by jeremyloy_wt 2 days ago
Comment by enraged_camel 2 days ago
How much you understand what was built is entirely up to you. Literally nothing is stopping you, or anyone else, from having the AI walk you through it, or reading the code yourself if you don’t trust the AI.
Comment by dodu_ 2 days ago
What about the threat of unemployment due to not meeting AI usage/output metrics? I've personally found it has effectively coerced me to stop trying to understand pretty much anything, and instead just send out whatever passes basic test to "keep up".
Unless you want to just play bad-faith word games and say that "technically it's still not stopping you" in which case yeah man you got me good job buddy.
Comment by teravor 2 days ago
so far the skill is to condition it to give you the best results.
there used to be a time where you had to hack together silly idiosyncratic prompts to get the model to do what you wanted. now you just go into the engineering and describe the object you want it to conjure for you in as much detail as possible (including the high level description of the internals if able) and any constraints you want on it.
Comment by CamperBob2 2 days ago
That ship sailed when people started using compilers and stopped learning assembly language.
Comment by dodu_ 2 days ago
Comment by CamperBob2 2 days ago
Comment by dodu_ 2 days ago
Why is this alternative better?
Comment by CamperBob2 2 days ago
Comment by californical 2 days ago
Think - would you rather your telecom company’s customer support be AI-forward? Would you pay an extra $5 per month to ensure that you get humans solving your problems immediately when you call with an issue?
What about your backup software? Would you rather choose the company that comes out with new innovations in backing up your data and tons of features, but occasionally breaks everything? Or would you want to choose a company for backup software that is slow at adding anything new and reliable? Isn’t it good if this is deterministic?
What about even a fitness tracking watch. Are there really that many missing features that need to be released way faster? Or is it better if it just tracks your heart rate and workouts well and then gets out of your way? Same here, don’t you want the features to be reliable and deterministic?
Comment by CamperBob2 2 days ago
Nobody uses an LLM for watches or data backup AFAIK so those seem like moot points.
Comment by boston_clone 2 days ago
This kind of reductionist take is an immediate tell that one has no experience in that kind of role. More worryingly, it hints of something antisocial and misanthropic. Do you not enjoy talking with other people during your day? Have you never experienced the resolution of complexity or ambiguity from a person that is intimately familiar with a product, its documentation, or internal processes?
Comment by oblio 2 days ago
Comment by boston_clone 1 day ago
the vonnegut quote is hitting hard today -
“why don’t you go online and buy a hundred envelopes and put them in the closet? And so I pretend not to hear her. And go out to get an envelope because I’m going to have a hell of a good time in the process of buying one envelope. I meet a lot of people. And, see some great looking babes. And a fire engine goes by. And I give them the thumbs up. And, and ask a woman what kind of dog that is. And, and I don’t know. The moral of the story is, is we’re here on Earth to fart around. And, of course, the computers will do us out of that. And, what the computer people don’t realize, or they don’t care, is we’re dancing animals.”
Comment by tavavex 1 day ago
It pains me to say, but I feel like the world the author is talking about is being extinguished. Soon enough we all will be 'computer people'.
Comment by CamperBob2 1 day ago
CS reps? No. You must be very lonely, yourself, if your mind went there in the context of this conversation.
Have you never experienced the resolution of complexity or ambiguity from a person that is intimately familiar with a product, its documentation, or internal processes?
Yes, and it's universally something that should have been possible online without talking to anyone, AI or human. That's my real hope.
Stage 1: Corporations replace impotent CS reps with AI.
Stage 2: Corporations gradually empower the AI to interface with their existing internal systems in order to get the customer off the phone faster and avoid social-media brouhahas. Yes, they could have empowered the people in stage 1 to do that, but they didn't.
Stage 3: Corporations realize the AI is just another unnecessary middleman on their payroll, and empower customers to check status, report and escalate issues, handle SLA and billing problems, and obtain RMAs directly via their websites. Which should have been how it worked all along.
Comment by boston_clone 1 day ago
> it's universally something that should have been possible online without talking to anyone
why do you think it is the case that quite literally zero medium+ sized companies have no customer support? do you think it’s possible that not every single iota of knowledge or edge case is immediately digitized and ready for consumption by an LLM?
is it also possible that customers that pay serious money for a service don’t want to click about on a website to solve a problem they didn’t cause? wasting someone’s time like that when you already fucked up is a very quick way to lose a customer; one throat to choke, as they say.
but since you’ve drawn the rest of the owl with those stages, I can only assume you’re raking in mad consultant fees for companies like Meta - they certainly haven’t had any issues replacing their humans with AI recently!
Comment by dinkumthinkum 2 days ago
Comment by CamperBob2 1 day ago
Comment by tavavex 1 day ago
People are asking legitimate questions whenever this is brought up, because the comparison is wrong. Compilers are an optimization of the previous paradigm, they let you do the exact same thing as what was done in the preceding decades, just faster. LLMs are not that, they are just a completely separate thing that exists alongside regular programming. Arguing that their use isn't just another option, but a superior and total replacement doesn't explain why you think that randomness is a perfect substitute for determinism. The only people I see promoting this view are ones who only want to look at graphs where lines are going up without caring about anything else. Because I think that even if LLMs get 10 times better, we'll still have industries and use cases where determinism will dominate, ones where you get one take to get things right. For instance, I would not fly on a plane with firmware that was created by a guy hitting Generate, going for a coffee break, coming back and saying "yea looks good".
Comment by ramblerman 1 day ago
But I used to enjoy learning - I think most of us did. The existential crisis many are experiencing is about the lack of fulfilment in rolling an LLM slot machine all day in an already dopamine depleting environment.
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Comment by alexpotato 2 days ago
I work in DevOps at a firm that has been very enthusiastic about using LLMs (in the good sense).
The phases were basically:
- try out having the LLM do "a lot"
- now even more
- now run multiple agents
- back to single agents but have the agents build tools
- tools that are deterministic AND usable by both the humans (EDIT: and the LLMs)
The reasons:
1. Deterministic tools (for both deployments and testing) get you a binary answer and it's repeatable
2. In the event of an outage, you can always fall back to the tool that a human can run
3. It's faster. A quick script can run in <30 seconds but "confabulating" always seemed to take 2-3 minutes.
Really, we are back to this article: https://spawn-queue.acm.org/doi/10.1145/3194653.3197520 aka "make a list of tasks, write scripts for each task, combine the scripts into functions, functions become a system"
-- END of original post --
What I would add:
if you let LLMs do whatever they want, they will happily make code. You can add tests to confirm that the tests work (which you used to do with human code, right?). You can also read the code.
When you read the code, you'll find that they sometimes do totally bananas things that still produce working code (I've seen humans do this too but that's another story).
In other words, you still need to make sure the system being built makes sense.
More succinctly:
Coding may be dead but software engineering is alive and kicking.
Comment by esalman 2 days ago
Comment by theshrike79 2 days ago
You can have the Big Boy LLM do _everything_. It can and it will do it. It will also cost fucktons of money and take a long time.
But if you build tools (with AI) that do as many tasks in the process deterministically as possible and let the AI use those, it'll be a lot faster and cheaper to run it.
As a bonus you can eventually drop the expensive cloud AI and run a small/medium sized local model instead.
Comment by chasd00 2 days ago
Comment by theshrike79 2 days ago
Claude is still the best commercially available harness IMO, pi.dev is super good but not something I'd give to non-enthusiasts or would recommend using in an enterprise environment.
I see companies writing their own custom harnesses on top of opencode/pi.dev/crush later down the line. Instead of having a set of skills or MCPs you can just have all of the default stuff built in and automatically updated via normal IT workflows.
Comment by oblio 2 days ago
For those unaware, Jenkins (Hudson), is a CI server that supports all sorts of pipelines. Those pipelines can very easily be turned into huge balls of mud by putting logic in them. The proper way to do it is to put that logic into simple scripts and tools and have Jenkins just do high level orchestration.
Comment by cmiles74 2 days ago
Where I work there’s already pressure to use Opus 4.7 less to save money, someone mentioned using a smaller model for “simple bug fixes”. This might work sometimes but how often do we really know it’s a simple bug fixe ahead of time? I suspect as costs go up we’ll see interest in using these tools to write “all the code” go down. As people migrate to cheaper and less effective models I suspect we’ll see the pressure to skip reviewing that code dissipate as well.
We’ll see where we land, maybe it won’t as dramatically different as the author of this post fears.
Comment by Eridrus 2 days ago
None of this comes out of the box atm, but it's not clear that it's not possible.
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Comment by ex-aws-dude 2 days ago
fooBar() and fooBarExtended()
The latter had additional params and functionality that was needed for the current problem.
Instead of calling that function though Claude kept trying to add in the same extended params to the first function
Even after telling it not to do that it kept suggesting the same thing again later, its so annoying sometimes
Comment by spicyusername 2 days ago
The open question for me is whether too much code is actually a problem.
These tools are a fact of life now. If we can solve problems or debug faster, and the software is less buggy, than it's not too much lines of code, it's just right.
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Comment by Anoian 2 days ago
This is not just right, no matter on which side of the argument you are.
Comment by cassianoleal 2 days ago
> Of course, this is good for brilliant engineers that never had the chance to get deep into the domain and now have better chances at getting a job, but it's also sad to think that other brilliant engineers that spent their lives collecting domain knowledge are now competing on the same lane.
If the author's vision of the future is correct, then competent software engineers are safe. Domain knowledge can be learnt much quicker than how to apply good engineering principles.
Engineers whose main competitive advantage is domain knowledge are probably not that brilliant at engineering. They might still find employment in other areas of the industry where they accumulated domain knowledge.
Comment by hliyan 2 days ago
There was an entire thread a week ago about how domain expertise has always been the real moat: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48340411
Comment by 9dev 2 days ago
Comment by physicsguy 2 days ago
I think this is true in some things and less true in others.
It's a pretty high moat getting into stuff like simulation software because the people working on numerical methods overwhelmingly have PhDs and it's a mixed skill set. Domain expertise here requires you to know maths to a high level. Even mechanical engineers often struggle here; it's often applied mathematicians and physicists turned devs that work on this stuff.
I worked on a fairly gnarly signal processing thing a while back that required bringing together knowledge of physics and software and maths and I found explaining it to people was tricky as their eyes glazed over at some point because their knowledge typically only covered one part of those.
Comment by pyth0 2 days ago
I'm currently working on a simulation/game about space and orbital mechanics. I have a lot of software experience, I know how to build large projects and architect my code, and I know how to to test the end result to ensure I'm getting what I want. But I also don't have a strong math or physics background. In my experience, Claude (Opus 4.6+) has had no issues writing any simulation or game related math code. And the key thing is, I don't need to have a PhD in astrophysics to verify interactively and visually that everything is working as I expect to. I just have an interest in space, and a basic understanding of the physics involved.
> it's often applied mathematicians and physicists turned devs that work on this stuff.
It's true that this has been the case, but I also would not have been able to implement what I'm doing now without these models (at least without dedicated a huge amount of time on learning all of the physics and math). So I think this domain specific knowledge is becoming less of a moat than people realize. At least that's my perspective on the specific area I'm working on, but I don't have a hard time believing it extends to other domains, provided there is ample information about them online to have trained on.
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Comment by whstl 2 days ago
Pretty much every area of knowledge is full of those. That's why people publish books, that's why people go to college or get PhDs, that's why people with experience gets hired.
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Comment by kloop 2 days ago
But the master knowing when to break the rules because of tacit knowledge without being able to explain it is a real effect
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Comment by jmyeet 2 days ago
I'm old enough to remember the dot-com crash, specifically the years afterwards. In 2002-2003, the unemployment rate of software engineers was something like 40%. In fact, the only reason it wasn't higher was because of the number of people who had permanently left the field to become plumbers (or other trades).
I think this is going to be worse. In the dot-com crash, what really happened is that non-businesses got funded and it basically the capital markets ceased to function to a large degree. That's not what's happening now. Yes, huge amounts of money are going into AI companies but the change is more structural.
Other industries have gone through this. In the 1980s a bunch of industries were intentionally destroyed or offshored in areas that have never recovered. This has continuing social, economic and political impacts. I think people are being naive here thinking this can't or won't happen in tech.
Comment by misswaterfairy 2 days ago
What would this future look like? Software developer salaries burrowing into the ground?
Comment by jmyeet 2 days ago
Everyone else will have extreme job uncertainty, getting laid off multiple times, losing compensation as a result (ie equity vesting) with compensation that at first stagnates and then starts to slowly decline in real terms.
A lot of the big tech companies will likely spend less effort on non-core activities. Think of all the things Google does. Anything that's purely internal will be gutted staffing-wise because it's the safest testbed for shifting the engineer-AI balance on teams before rolling it out further.
If you listen to non-tech people now you hear tales of applying for hundreds of jobs and getting no response. That will become more normal. What's worse is that AI seems to be to blame here. Companies all use the same AI ATS systems and I've seen allegations that candidate scoring gets cached for upwards of a year. So if the system happens to give you a bad score, literally nobody will see your application because you'll get filtered out before any human sees you.
I was watching a VC give a talk from some conference in France and the general sentiment is that no companies are being funded with teams greater than 5. Why? AI. So don't think you can startup your way out of this slump unless you're somebody who has the connections and CV to get funded anyway, in which case you might well have some of those stratospheric options anyway, at least for now.
Comment by adam_arthur 2 days ago
It's not really feasible for "normal" businesses to hire developers at current salaries.
Tech companies will probably shrink in headcount, but all the non-tech kind of businesses can increase developer headcount.
Current Tech salaries are far above other fields while requiring (used to) significantly less training or time investment to get into.
Phase 1 is more likely that software comp will normalize with other professions, and more hiring will happen at the fringes rather than being concentrated in a few big companies.
Comment by bluefirebrand 2 days ago
Maybe in some markets but in many places around the world software salaries already weren't that high. Or at least not really much higher than other white collar professions
Comment by teliosix 2 days ago
The reality is this all the standard lump of labor fallacy. I am not a software engineer but it is obvious to me at some point I will be using claude code or whatever to automate tasks. I won't be taking software engineering jobs, I will be using code to do what is done manually today that you wouldn't bother paying a software engineer to handle.
Today's software engineers will just be higher up the stack from me the same way they are today.
In 20 years, many of us will be working in sectors of the economy that don't exist today.
The idea we get something as powerful as AI and it doesn't create new businesses and sectors is just stupid.
Imagine telling someone in 1997 they are going to be getting deliveries from Amazon all the time in the mail. What kind of idiot would believe this? I don't even read that many books!
Comment by NikolaNovak 2 days ago
I'm not sure that's universally true. Good software engineers who are arrogant about easily acquired domain knowledge have been the downfall of many an ERP system.
There's SO much IT that's literally all about putting business rules into the system.
Comment by cassianoleal 2 days ago
This is a problem of arrogance, not of domain expertise.
Having worked in a few different industries, I'd wager that for the vast majority of them, a competent person can probably learn 80% of the required domain knowledge in under 6 months. For the latter 20%, as long as the person is not arrogant, they will seek help from colleagues who have been around for longer.
On the other hand, solid engineering principles will take 10-15 years of actually experimenting and learning in practice what makes a system resilient and durable.
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Comment by misswaterfairy 2 days ago
Partially disagree. Broad-strokes domain knowledge can be learned quickly, but honing that domain knowledge with nuance and consideration for complexity, particularly for organisations that are unique and are not often thought of as 'software development houses', can take years if not decades.
Yet I still see (and code review) 'professional' software developers that don't follow good software engineering practice.
> Engineers whose main competitive advantage is domain knowledge are probably not that brilliant at engineering.
The same is also true of engineers without domain knowledge, certainly in my experience. Maybe we just got unlucky...
Comment by enormousness 2 days ago
Can it? I'm of the opposite opinion. You can improve methodology much faster than gaining specialized knowledge.
You can enforce and fast-track the former because it's a matter of approach.
The latter is subject to the person's learning affinity, capacity and availability at the time and can't be forced beyond reasonable facilitation. It also builds on itself, with the corollary that there's a much steeper curve early on.
Comment by dchftcs 2 days ago
With that said, there are still many SWE principles that are not fully internalized or adequately practiced by domain knowledge experts, and that will remain the case as much as domain knowledge remains valuable, because software engineering is yet but another domain.
Comment by Aurornis 2 days ago
If you’ve been lucky enough to get jobs that expose you to the right things then you have a big advantage when the interviewers are looking for those specific things instead of your generic abilities or potential. It feels nice because you’re competing against a much smaller pool of people.
Unless you are not lucky enough to have been exposed to those specific domains yet. You can be a great engineer and even someone who learns quickly, but if you can’t point to the lines on your resume that match the job description then nothing else matters when the interviewers are playing experience bingo with your resume.
The move to generic coding interviews changed that. It was no longer enough to say that you had exposure to a topic at a past job. You had to show your coding skills, too. It wasn’t enough to ride on your credentials any more, which was highly frustrating to the well-credentialed.
However if you didn’t have the exact experience then the world of job opportunities becomes much larger. The people I know who like coding interviews the most (other than the rare competitive programming enjoyer) are people who are highly talented but came from less credentialed backgrounds: They don’t have an amazing university on their resume, they had to work at some company you’ve never heard of in their small town, but they are great at programming and just want a chance to prove that so they can move up to better companies. They’re never going to be picked by a company that’s looking for exact domain experience, but as companies open up job listings to people without that exact experience they have a chance to prove themselves.
The other people who relied on that domain experience to lock other candidates out of the hiring process don’t like it at all, though.
Comment by bob1029 2 days ago
What kind of domains did you have in mind?
Comment by bonoboTP 2 days ago
Not like a webdev entering game engine design or a database engineer entering computer vision research, or someone working in embedded hard-realtime systems switching to making video editing GUIs.
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Comment by cassianoleal 1 day ago
I agree that domains are deep but rarely I'll touch all areas of the domain in any given role. As I mentioned in other comments, I don't have to know all of it, as there are other people in the business and likely within my team who:
- probably don't know 100% either; but
- know things that I don't
We work together so as a team we have as broad and deep a domain knowledge we can for the needs of our products and projects.
Comment by cmrdporcupine 2 days ago
The best people I've worked with were the people who learned the ins and outs of the business they were making software for, not the people who learned how to write code really well or read logs or learn software architecture patterns. Those people (and I've been one of those people) often go around looking for nails for their hammers rather than really focusing on the customer need.
It takes a really sharp brain to pick up and learn an area of expertise that has nothing to do with software development, and figure out how software development makes that domain better.
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Comment by epolanski 2 days ago
Applied to real world complex businesses good luck.
Comment by applfanboysbgon 2 days ago
Whatever your feelings on the future of the industry are, it's hard to imagine you'll find more professional success in artisan woodworking than artisan software.
Comment by wfleming 2 days ago
I’ve had people tell me I should try selling some of the furniture I make and my response is always that I made the mistake of turning a hobby into a career once, I don’t intend to make that mistake again, and at least software still pays pretty well.
Comment by variodot 2 days ago
Parallels and interests overlap everywhere between programming and woodworking; decisions about tooling, tolerances, sequencing, and what can be easily fixed later.
The models get rectangles pretty well and has been fun exploring a parametric casework planner for my own shop.
Comment by jmkni 2 days ago
I work with a guy who does decking (gardens, caravans, etc) and builds sheds, fences, things like that and he does very well indeed (he's also incredibly good at it to be fair)
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If only there was another word for that...?
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Comment by lelanthran 2 days ago
A small percentage of the market, maybe a fraction of a percent, are still willing to pay for hand-built goods - bonus if it's thoroughly modern but retro (steam-punk keyboards, maybe).
Exactly zero percent of the market is willing to pay for hand-built software.
Comment by witx 2 days ago
You took this statistic out of your rear end?
Comment by onion2k 2 days ago
That doesn't mean you couldn't carve out a niche providing hand built software to people it does matter to, because the software industry is large, but saying 'zero percent of the market isn't willing to pay for it' isn't really wrong. It's just a rounding error that does care.
(One massive caveat though ... the argument assumes that 'hand built' means 'higher quality than AI-assisted', and that's probably not true for >99% of developers.)
Comment by lelanthran 2 days ago
We are less than a year into good-enough coding agents, and as of right now there is not a single job opening I see that offers a salary for non-AI output.
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Comment by lelanthran 2 days ago
My experience of job postings advertised is exactly the same as everyone else's for the same filters.
This is not a "my personal feeling is that...", this is "I can't find an advertisement, posting or role that doesn't demand, instruct or promise that the successful candidate would be working closely with AI".
We're less than a year in, and I do not see dev jobs advertised on (for example) indeed.com with any sort of criteria omitting AI.
Imagine what it would look like in 5 years.
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Says the guy with a pseudonym, active only since 2022.
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Comment by applfanboysbgon 2 days ago
This is a provably false statement, given that eg. Handmade Hero exists and sold a bunch of pre-orders despite never coming close to completion, and spawned an entire community that prides themselves on handmade software. There are also content creators like Tsoding who make a living by having people watch them do handmade coding for the love of the craft.
Some non-zero percentage of people will also always be willing to pay a premium for superior-quality software. The author's thesis isn't that LLMs can produce S-grade software but that 'nobody cares' about quality and that C-grade software is good enough. While it's true that software quality isn't greatly valued at scale, I think the minority who care is larger than the minority who care about premium woodworking goods, particularly because as an artisan software developer you more or less have access to the global market of every single person who cares, while as an artisan woodworker you mostly only have access to the market of people in your town who care.
This also overlooks that LLMs are politically divisive and there are movements to boycott them and shame people for using them. There's a niche for organic, free-range, vegan, etc. products at the supermarket for conscientious objectors, there will undoubtedly be such a niche for software. All the more so if LLMs reach a point where they actually are putting everyone out of a job, they will get much more divisive. There was already an assassination attempt against Altman and his promises to destroy everyone's livelihood haven't even come to fruition.
Comment by josephg 2 days ago
People are increasingly associating “AI art” with cheap slop. I wonder if the same will ever happen to programming.
Comment by feelamee 2 days ago
This is a small part of the whole users, but.. why not. People who value hand-by wood goods are also a small part.
Also, there are also communities which slow down AI integration - like Zig. Maybe they will alive
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Comment by p-e-w 2 days ago
The classic “AI images were everywhere in 2023, but I rarely see them now” phenomenon.
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Comment by abraxas 2 days ago
Virtually nobody has their favourite app developer.
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Comment by 5701652400 2 days ago
not woodworking. farming. get a pot of land and grow your own food. do not participate in economy at all. that's the only survival.
Comment by applfanboysbgon 2 days ago
Layoffs also don't really tell you anything. Is it actually LLMs that are causing layoffs or is it deteroriating economic conditions and uncertainty amidst war, oil shocks, etc.? Is it junior employees being laid off, or seniors? If it's the former, someone with 10+ years of professional experience might not have reason to be concerned. I happen to believe that, LLMs or not, the software development field already had far too many jobs, employing a large number of clueless people who contributed somewhere between zero and negative value to their organizations, and that it was overdue for a correction anyways.
Comment by 5701652400 2 days ago
but for "woodwork" / personal-farm still belive he is better off than software. at least he will be employed and have food on the table.
Comment by Our_Benefactors 2 days ago
Rejecting industrialized society is actually very expensive
Comment by mschuster91 2 days ago
However, it's a risky business so I'd only recommend getting started if you either (!) are FIRE already even after sinking 3 million bucks into purchasing land and machinery as well as constructing all the buildings or if you join a cooperative/union or if you got experienced farmers in your family.
Everything else - especially following "prepper" influencers shilling books and holding more public speeches to shill for said books than they are actually working on their farm - is a recipe for certain disaster.
If in doubt... first try raising a few dozen chickens in your yard as a starting point.
Comment by rightbyte 2 days ago
No. Just try to make a 5x8 plot to grow vegetables and realise how ridiculously hard it is.
Comment by mschuster91 2 days ago
That works out as well, yeah.
Chickens have the advantage that they eat almost anything and they'll give you eggs. Loads of eggs. More eggs than you can realistically eat if you're not into weightlifting. And especially, they give you eggs for a looooong time - if you eat that salad or tomato, it's gone. The chicken lasts longer, and you can make it into some delicious soup at the end. But for that you need to be able to stomach killing the chicken, which frankly I do not lol.
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Comment by dasil003 2 days ago
I have no idea how things will play out, but so far I am not worried because the amount of software continues to increase, and AI only accelerates that trend. This will require the same mental modeling, first principles thinking, and relentless curiosity that already formed the foundation of the software engineer skillset.
Comment by mariopt 2 days ago
Right now non-tech people just think AI will do anything they want and are the one in charge of hiring/firing, managing, etc. It's horrible to be a software dev right now, you've to deal with AI and lunatics.
Of course Domain Knowledge is important but, right now it's very hard to have reasonable conversation because... you know... AI this, AI that. I had a customer showing me a Claude vibe coded atrocity trying to convince me it's was a great app, now ask yourself: How are devs even supposed to collaborate with this without going insane? Simple, you can't.
Comment by tempest_ 2 days ago
There is a massive number of software engineers that are closer to plumbers than computer scientists and for them the progressing AI models are going to be a problem.
Comment by ethagnawl 2 days ago
Yes, yes, 1000x yes.
As a bit of an aside, I have been toying with the idea of adding some sort of second pass/security auditing/scaling offering to my consultancy for people vibe coding projects which wind up generating interest. (Not sure what the fuck else I'm going to do!) I have a few non-technical friends who have found themselves in this situation and there's a real need for it.
The aspects of it which I find daunting are the ones you've referenced, though. I imagine many people -- especially the ones who've built mobile apps for $300 in tokens -- are going to balk at the costs I'd have to charge for such a service. We're also now living in an era where everyone is an "expert" (lunatic) ... with just a little help from Claude/Gemini/Grok/whatever. I can already foresee people second guessing every suggestion, decision, line item, etc. I'd also be taking on a liability that'd be tricky to completely work around via legal language for any bugs or security issues which might/would inevitably slip through review. Ironic because nobody blinks when LLMs excrete those things.
But, anyways, circling back around. Yeah, trying to find work in this market has been a new exercise in frustration. AI is all anyone wants to talk about, it's driven hourly rates through the floor and most of the open gigs revolve around model training and carry an implicit expiration window for the trainer. It sucks and I really don't know what I'm going to do to keep my consultancy open going forward. (As signs of how desperate I'm getting, I recently signed up for Task Rabbit and am seriously considering applying for a job at Tractor Supply.)
Comment by MaKey 2 days ago
There might be a need for it but as a consultant your daily rate should be way above what a small vibe coder is willing to pay.
> As signs of how desperate I'm getting, I recently signed up for Task Rabbit and am seriously considering applying for a job at Tractor Supply.
I hope you'll find a way to keep going. Signing up for gig work is a race to the bottom though and not something I'd recommend. May I ask how you've arrived at this point?
Comment by ethagnawl 1 day ago
Yes, I agree and that's part of the tension. I called attention to projects which are actually generating interest because, no, not everybody needs that sort of treatment. People who have real (i.e. not friends/family) users, are storing PII, accepting payments, etc. probably do -- after some threshold has been crossed, though.
> I hope you'll find a way to keep going. Signing up for gig work is a race to the bottom though and not something I'd recommend. May I ask how you've arrived at this point?
Thank you. I sincerely appreciate that. I know Task Rabbit and co. are a race to the bottom but ... I've been burning through savings and need funds to start coming in. There's also an opportunity cost, as that's time I can't spend networking, applying for jobs, writing blog posts, etc. but, again, I can't sustain the burn and don't want to take on more debt. "Gig work" seems simpler than getting hired and put on a schedule somewhere and needing to quit when (hopefully!) I can land some more "real" work.
As for how I got here: Historically, my spouse has had the "safe" job, along with benefits, etc. and I've been the one to freelance/run the consultancy with the healthier rates. (I'm a bit ... neurospicy and can't handle traditional employment, anyways. This also complicates outreach, lead gen, marketing, etc.) For many years, I had a good mix of new/repeat clients through word-of-mouth and was turning down hours. My schedule was also flexible enough that I could be the one deal with getting the kids to/from where they needed to be. Fast-forward a few years and a lot of the work I was doing has either been halted (e.g. due to arts/science funding in the US), brought in-house (e.g. experiential/creative tech) or commoditized by Claude, ChatGPT, etc. (e.g. building CMSs, web services, IAC, AI/ML-ops supporting training/deployment of bespoke LLM/VLMs). I'm now stuck being the one with the flexible schedule, so 9-5 would be really challenging (on a few levels) and my resume isn't getting "through the front door" anywhere, anyways -- despite my experience being strong and varied. So, I've been burning savings while taking on what work I can drum up but it's slowed to basically nothing over the course of the last year.
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Comment by SoftTalker 2 days ago
This is just how it is, and has always been in this industry. And it takes about 10 years to realize it.
When I started my career in software, businesses were still writing new code in COBOL. 10 years later those skills were pretty much useless, except for dwindling maintenance roles.
Then there was the client/server era. Then the web era. Then mobile. Then cloud, etc.
All the same functionality, written and re-written time and time again, using the latest popular stacks and methodologies.
I hope to be retiring in a few years and pretty much everything I have learned over nearly 40 years is no longer applicable or is at best losing relevancy to the way sofware is built today. And that's how it's always been.
Comment by rdbl27 2 days ago
SQL was first released in 1973. More new SQL is being written today than ever.
C++ (1985) is the de facto standard implementation language for web browsers, JavaScript engines, networking stacks, telecommunications, video games, high speed trading, CAD/CAM, video rendering and editing, audio processing, filesystems, databases, hardware drivers, automotive, aerospace, and robotics, among others.
Is Rust making inroads? Sure, and it's a tiny fraction of C++ still. It's a long ways from being the standard.
Likewise, Python is often cited as the "AI language," but that's on the surface -- CUDA, tensor libraries, inference languages, GPU kernels, compiler stacks, and so on are usually C++.
Then there's C -- introduced in 1972. Still widely used for greenfield in kernels, device drivers, embedded systems and microcontrollers, filesystems, firmware, network stacks, cryptography, databases, compilers.
LaTeX, MATLAB, Erlang, Verilog, PostScript, Lisp (including Scheme and Clojure), shell scripting (and the UNIX paradigm itself)... the list of old tech that still sees new projects in 2026 goes on.
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Comment by keyle 2 days ago
I just want to emphasise a point... Calculators give 100% correct answers and yet we still hire accountants; for the simple fact that we don't want all to be accountants.
People will hire software engineers for the simple fact that they do not want to be software engineers.
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Comment by Drakim 1 day ago
Computers came in and "took" the job of calculating numbers (I assume usually budgets and finances), but instead of every layman just using a computer to organize their company's finances, they still hire a professional to use the computer to organize the company's finances. The role shifted, but it wasn't eliminated.
Comment by 5701652400 15 hours ago
this "shifting-role" rhetoric is very dangerous. making definitions fluid is a very slippery slope. you can arrive at any conclusion you want and support any point you want by changing defintions. seeing it in AI from C-level leaders is very concerning.
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Comment by dragonwriter 12 hours ago
So, no, I wouldn’t object to using that label for the same property relationship even if it came with a different pattern of operation.
Comment by anygivnthursday 2 days ago
Calculators are not a replacement for accountants, online accounting services are in many cases. Which again can be run by an AI if they reach that level of reliability.
Today with LLMs this is still sci-fi, though.
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Comment by worldthruword 2 days ago
But bread shops are available on every corner. Will software jobs become as common as bread shops? If yes, what happens to the salaries? Something to think about.
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Comment by enormousness 2 days ago
If we apply the same argument to software engineering I think it's a good point... just maybe not the one you intended to make.
Comment by Yokohiii 2 days ago
It's probably impossible for LLMs to learn and apply that wisdom reliably.
Comment by HDBaseT 2 days ago
Humans learn this information from documentation and being exposed to all the different systems.
We know LLMs can ingest documentation like a sponge and access all different internal systems, resources and products via MCP Servers?
Comment by Yokohiii 2 days ago
Humans do make mistakes or forget things as well. We learn to not rush on stairs and to not touch hotplates. A few bruises later that wisdom is permanent, at some point we don't even need to fail with everything to accept the rules.
A LLM is permanently at risk to break every given rule.
Comment by ai_brain_rot 1 day ago
We learn it from conversations with our managers and peers. We learn it from reading between the lines of those conversations. We learn it by being in meetings and seeing who is reliable and who isn’t. Etc.
LLMs do great learning from documentation, but so much of what it takes for an employee to be successful isn’t and can’t be documented
Comment by techblueberry 1 day ago
Do you work for the one company with reliable up-to-date documentation? If so you might be biased in your assessment.
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I wouldn't say it's particularly brave, in fact LLMs are probably better at identifying mistakes than most tax payers. The % of Americans using a CPA to file taxes is fairly small.
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Ask me how I know.
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Comment by lelanthran 2 days ago
Anything that can replace a deeply experienced s/ware engineer can replace anyone in the employment stack, meaning that only the owners of capital will be left, and they too will soon fade as the economy falls off a cliff and money has no value, because the only value that money has is the value of a human backing that, with thought, with ideas, with human output.
Whether you like it or not, "Economic output" is just a different phrase for "Human output that is valuable". When all human output is valued at the fractions of a penny per month of work, there is no future.
Comment by ilovecake1984 2 days ago
Just because LLMs are good at translating English to code, doesn’t imply they are good at many other jobs.
Coding isn’t that hard, it’s just not enjoyable to most people. The enjoyment has always been the barrier to entry.
Comment by thin_carapace 2 days ago
hard agree on the last statement. programming is language. if you're literate you can code.
Comment by ChrisLTD 1 day ago
Coding effectively is hard AND painful for the majority of folks. And I’d venture to guess they don’t want to be responsible for debugging LLM output either. Just like I don’t want to fix a car, or do my own plumbing.
Comment by juleiie 2 days ago
AI is fundamentally an equivalent to slave economy. Cheap, plentiful workforce. This time ethically neutral. You either get Greece or Rome. I’d prefer Greece but it will probably be Rome. From the past we can predict the future.
Comment by techblueberry 2 days ago
I’m starting to be more sensitive to the argument that without god, people are unable to have a strong moral foundation. Not for the people expressing creativity in how they fuck, but as a check on those in power.
Comment by dbetteridge 2 days ago
We created it for ourselves and at its core is our social nature and the ability to feel Empathy for other humans/creatures.
Now I lead with that because there are historical cases for both religious and non religious people committing horrific acts, both groups having whatever form of "morals" and still those acts happened.
Morals based on the idea of an all seeing eye are also questionable at the root, if you only do the "right" thing because you fear consequences then how is that better than the government, police etc acting as a your personal moral compass except to extend the potential punishment beyond the current perceived lifetime.
Comment by thin_carapace 2 days ago
Comment by dbetteridge 2 days ago
There's 4 at least
Seeing eye believer feeds the needy
Non believer feeds the needy
Non believer doesn't feed the needy
Believer doesn't feed the needy for some reason or another
That said I never said it was worse, I asked how it was better than "the state" acting as an all seeing eye for the masses.
Comment by thin_carapace 2 days ago
im sure you have an opinion on that viewpoint, but im still curious as to whether you have an answer to my question.
Comment by dbetteridge 2 days ago
It isn't worse, objectively the end result is favourable even if the "driver" for it is not (to me).
I accept your counter point that at a macro level society requires a set of checks and reinforcement to bias individuals towards social good behaviour, community enforcement is obviously one and religion can be another.
But I would argue that while the state legal framework is secular it encodes some moral principles that society has agreed on such as murder, theft, harming other physically or otherwise etc.
I also hold no issue with others holding beliefs that shape their morality, I just reject the argument that people without a god cannot have innate morality or a secular morality (a common refrain).
Comment by thin_carapace 2 days ago
Comment by dbetteridge 2 days ago
So extended clarification on the "belief shaping morality" point.
I hold no issue with it, until one person's belief driven morality impinges on another persons own autonomy, you're free to act on your own life and person based on your beliefs but using that belief system as a weapon to cause others harm or reduce their autonomy as a person is where I draw the line.
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Comment by jplusequalt 2 days ago
If this were true, why did the medieval peasant have less rights and autonomy in society than we do now?
Comment by techblueberry 2 days ago
Also, I’m “starting to be more sensitive to” I’m not fully bought in.
Comment by kakacik 2 days ago
In my own experience such people are often far from objectively moral or good people themselves, and overcompensate some deep issues.
Comment by techblueberry 2 days ago
It is very true in my experience. It is also very not true in my experience.
FWIW I’m an atheist. Curious what you mean by issues-riddled mind. What issues? What’s the unhealthy place? There is no one person I’d accuse of lacking morality through godlessness, but I do see a trend. Most particularly in the people and communities who would have previously chosen godliness and replaced it with nothing, not those who previously would have chosen godlessness.
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Comment by juleiie 2 days ago
I like to think that one of the symptoms is politics becoming really absolutist, idealistic and cultish. You do not debate followers of a different religion. But many topics really becoming kind of a mini religions.
I don’t know for sure though, there are arguments against it too and other factors.
I think substantial amount of people really need some kind of subjective spiritual experience to their life and maybe ignoring that need breeds some maladaptive tendencies
Comment by thin_carapace 2 days ago
maybe thats a reason that god was deleted from the western cultural lexicon, so that broken communities could be capitalized upon? no way, surely god is merely a deprecated irrelevant vestige. it's not like a fractured social fabric is a ripe substrate of raw suffering to mine profit from. surely a few hundred generations were enough for our morals to have been encoded into genetics, we don't have to bother consciously practicing morality any more. that's for the narrow minded.
<alt version of above paragraphs from ludicrous perspective of individual experiencing theocracy and its own form of propaganda>
..... this isn't intended to be aimed at anyone except those who delete god to make money, and those who use god to make money. there's plenty of negative aspects to religion. the argument is intended to focus on the sheer idiocy of expecting morality to spontaneously manifest in the absence of external motivation or any teaching of lessons already collectively learned the hard way.
Comment by juleiie 2 days ago
Concepts like "checking your privilege" or being "canceled" closely parallel religious ideas of original sin and repentance, where individuals must acknowledge their unearned moral failings to become "good".
Actions like using specific pronouns, displaying yard signs, or performing land acknowledgments function similarly to reciting a catechism; they signal allegiance to a shared belief system and reassure the in-group
Protests and social movements often evoke the communal, revival-like atmosphere of religious gatherings, providing participants with a sense of purpose and belonging.
But what’s most convincing is that many times it is hypocritical in the same way religions are. There is no room for questioning or doubt and yet the actions do not align with the performance. Which means it isn’t driven by dry results but fulfills a deeper human need.
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Comment by jesse_dot_id 2 days ago
The people and companies leaning into fully autonomous agents are high on their own supply, in my opinion. They're kicking back in their beach chairs as their pipelines spit out Stüssy S after Stüssy S, with massive architectural flaws and attack surfaces, just lighting gobs of money on fire.
Yesterday, I created a fully functional POC for something really cool, it took me all day as I reshaped the agent's rough boilerplate ideas into usable components, and I never once hit a session limit on my $100 month Claude sub. I spent the majority of my time thinking about how I needed to prompt to turn what was in my head into working and secure code. You can't just give the agent a vague idea and expect anything less than a dumpster app.
It's probably enough to fool C Suite people into believing the AI apocalypse is coming, which is the crux of the problem, and what is fueling what is certainly a gigantic bubble — but when it comes down to it, shitty software is shitty software. To fix it, you have to know what good software looks and feels like under the hood, and why it's shitty or feels bad to use. It might start up, but mutability, staying up, remaining stable, and remaining secure are very different stories.
The clock is ticking on everything that has been developed by a LLM with a novice user behind the prompts.
Comment by hax0ron3 2 days ago
Well, except for roles where being human is an inherent part of the value for customers: bartender, prostitute, certain kinds of boutique sales, professional athlete, stage actor, etc. And for roles that have to be human for legal reasons.
Of course such roles make up a small part of the entire job market.
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Comment by lelanthran 2 days ago
Who said that?
More to the point, how many plumbers does society need?
Comment by hbcdbff 2 days ago
Direct quote
Comment by lelanthran 2 days ago
> Direct quote
And, in your (and GP's mind), that means the same thing as "LLMs can replace plumbers"?
After all, I said:
>>>> When all human output is valued at the fractions of a penny per month of work, there is no future.
I mean, I know it's fashionable to not read the article, but are we all really responding without even reading the comments? Are two paragraphs well beyond the attention span of the readers here?
Okay, lets go with that asinine comeback: What do you think happens when the only work left for humans to do involves 100% physical labour and 0% thought?
How many plumbers does a society need? Electricians? Even in construction, you can automate almost everything away with cranes and similar.
Now imagine that all the doctors, all the office workers, all the warehouse workers, all the bankers, lawyers, teachers, ... basically any job that requires thought ... all those people are now joining the legions of plumbers.
That sort of 1000x increase in supply will drive prices to pennies.
The LLM doesn't need to replace plumbers directly; all it needs to do is replace everyone else, and the value of plumbers approach zero anyway.
Comment by trumpdong 2 days ago
I have zero doubt that half of humanity can all have jobs continuously expanding the mansions of the other half who don't do any work but receive all the benefits.
Comment by est31 2 days ago
Software engineering was a nice target because inputs and outputs are just data and you don't need to figure out robotics. But idk, 3 years ago it seemed illusory (at least for me) that LLMs could take over software engineering, but now here we are. They are still not 100% there yet (software engineers still have jobs), but we are getting ever closer.
Companies are in the process of figuring out robotics, and even if it's not figured out, then we might introduce a gig-ified blue collar economy where an unskilled, underpaid gig worker implements instructions by AI. Plus a lot of blue collar work already today involves robots (cranes, excavators, trucks, etc).
Comment by trumpdong 2 days ago
At least LLM programming bubble is applying language models to language tasks, even if the results are mixed. The LLM robotics bubble is doing what exactly? They're making videos of remote-controlled skinsuits doing mundane tasks inefficiently in a way that impressed investors. They're trying to exploit the ELIZA effect for physical movement.
I saw one sorting packages to put the barcode label on top. Do you know what's a better way to do that? You put a camera on every side, including underneath, so the barcode can be read from any direction. This scanner can work at line speed instead of being the bottleneck. This isn't new. And you sort packages into different buckets by having pneumatically activated wedges that swing out and push the package onto a different line. The bottle return machine at my nearest supermarket does that, I'm sure wannabe billion dollar VC funded startups can manage it.
Comment by mike_hearn 2 days ago
Seems some on HN haven't been keeping up with progress in physical robotics. Unique physical work is lagging behind a bit, but not by much. Expect to see robots doing simple plumbing jobs within a few years, not a few decades.
Comment by p-e-w 2 days ago
Nope, just knowledge workers. We’re decades away from automating many manual labor professions, even “unskilled” ones.
Turns out brains just aren’t as special as we thought.
Comment by techblueberry 2 days ago
How do you figure? We’ve already automated away way more manual labor jobs than we currently have.
Comment by theshackleford 2 days ago
Nope, just a specific kind. Those who developed and cultivated only a very specific skill set at the expense of all others.
I used to think being a generalist, and having persued technical roles with a people facing element was to my detriment, but it’s turned out to be the best decision I ever made.
Comment by tempest_ 2 days ago
Being a generalist was very useful to me 5 years ago. Now AI models have made everyone a generalist. That wide but not terribly deep skillset was immediately devalued by the AI models.
You can argue that the models fuck up 20 percent of the time, or that they make poor code but there is a massive part for the industry that is totally fine with that and I think people ignore it to their detriment.
Comment by theshackleford 2 days ago
I give that context because unlike a lot of you, I’m not a world class FAANG engineer and never will be. It is from this context all of my thoughts on AI flow. I work with people who are trying to use AI to produce work involving entire markets, roles, skillsets and technologies they don't even know exist, let alone understand.
> I had the opposite thought.
Until I recently got pulled back deep into engineering despite not being hands on for close to a decade, so did I. I was pulled in not because of any pure technical capability but instead because it's been recognised the team requires more. The skills I thought served only to help me stay employed in any role in the most basic roles are increasingly turning out to be things other's do not have and are becoming increasingly important.
These are skills I always assumed crucial to “baseline competency” for everyone, but yet where a significant amount of them do not, and these individuals are now finding themselves in positions where they are less useful than me as a result. Many of them can not simply be acquired from AI either, and require years of active growth and practice.
> Being a generalist was very useful to me 5 years ago. Now AI models have made everyone a generalist.
I think they could, but have not. Not at a scale required for me to have significant concern.
AI works as well as the context you can provide, and you don't know what you don’t know. If the context is shallow, so to will be the output, even when it looks convincing and that “looks convincing” part I believe is the most dangerous part.
As an example; I've been (recently) attached to an engineering team, despite last holding that title pre-2015, after AI assisted work contributed to a multi million dollar contract loss. A customer experienced an outage, it was "fixed" and everyone moved on. A month later another outage occurred of a greater scale. A huge amount of time was wasted doubling down on the original AI finding, because the actual root cause had not been identified or understood, because it had been "fixed". Turns out AI had identified and "fixed" a symptom, not a root cause.
I was able to identify and resolve the real issue because I had wider operational and infrastructure context the team lacked, but the damage was done. Trust was gone, the client lost, and layoffs will follow. Those layoffs will be “because of AI,” but not any "10x'ing" of productivity. Instead it will be because plausible but wrong work made it into production and hid a very real problem as a result.
That’s the issue with AI as I see it now. It generates answers that survive initial scrutiny while completely missing wider context leading to cases where more impactful but hidden problems are introduced.
> That wide but not terribly deep skillset was immediately devalued by the AI models.
Perhaps “generalist” was the wrong word here.
Most "engineers" I have worked with are extremely deep in their area and surprisingly limited outside it. Even with AI, they struggle to move beyond their specialty because they lack broader foundations underneath not just modern infrastructure, but a range of areas equally important to the health of a business. My advantage has never been being the best engineer in the room, I knew early in my career I’d never compete with the engineer who can patch our kernel before upstream does, despite wishing I could.
What ended up mattering instead was becoming the "95% guy" across infrastructure, networking, systems, operations, business, customer success, and people management that allows me to work with people/organisations and ultimately connect dots in a way even the best engineers I have worked with can not. AI can help you develop skills in areas you don't have, but starting with most of it in areas in which people have exactly none, and where people seem extremely resistant to developing it with or without AI, has me significantly further ahead in the curve. Ironically, at least in my experience so far, AI has made that more valuable, not less.
> they make poor code
I consider this to be the least important part. We have testing, review, and process for that.
I believe (and have instructed juniors as such) that the real value of valuable technical people has never been producing rockstar code, or being a clone of Linus. It's in having a deep foundational understanding of the building blocks underpinning the now endless layers of abstraction, understanding consequences, tradeoffs, failure patterns, business impact, customer communication, customer wants and needs, and ultimately I guess to sum it up, organisational reality.
This feels more important than ever when they can generate plausible looking technical output instantly that they may be able to validate, but equally produce plausible output in a huge range of areas they absolutely can not, but for which their successes in code have led them to believe they can. Because they underestimate what they don't know and in fact often assume they know far more than they do with no real basis for such a belief.
On the whole, I think I would end my thoughts like this.
For years I lived with the stress that "rockstar" engineers would lead to me eventually becoming irrelevant, much in the same way I might fear AI. So far, being 95% across customers, leadership, sales, support, engineering, and business strategy without losing the technical depth underneath it has meant this fear was unfounded and in fact put me ahead of them. I believe I am not isolated in this, and that in fact we will see more of it.
All else aside, my roles as of the last decade often require me to be in the room and working with humans. AI has not changed this, and there is no current indication it will. The requirement will be that I continue to remain in the room, only now with AI. This is for many reasons including regulatory, because portions of what I do involve systems that if mishandled could lead to more than just a loss of profit. There may be less of these roles, but as it stands I see nothing to indicate they will not exist.
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Comment by Aperocky 2 days ago
How is that true? I've been using Opus on an industry scale over last 6 months and this is just not real.
It has consistently with a certain percentage of chance each time (and no claude.md and skills do not stop it fully):
* Suggested to remove tests to allow for things to pass
* Suggested remove an error so that things can be "unblocked"
* Suggested to use a second path when the original path ran into problem instead of making the original path accomodate for that possibility.
* Suggested or silently added "features" or "guardrail" that I don't want.
* Can be left unsupervised only if given a goal that it can verify against itself. Without such clear goal (e.g. this test in the integration environment must be fixed), it flounders.
I'm not using just the native harness (e.g. CC) either, with additional, customized harness, the behavior improves somewhat but are still fundamentally constrained and cannot really be trusted without verification.
See my methodology (100% handwritten): https://aperocky.com/blog/post.html?slug=agentic-development....
Being a heavy user I think I've ran into every single hallucination that the model can do over development release and operations. I am still a heavy user but there are a lot of value in recognizing where exactly LLM's limit is and work around that.
Comment by wcfrobert 2 days ago
The fact that the author can articulate _why_ the AI is getting so good is kind of a moat for specialist, right? Imagine a layman prompting without domain expertise:
"There is likely a race condition here + [long-winded explanation and analysis carefully guiding the AI]"
Degenerates to:
"This button is not working, please fix. I don't care about code. Decide yourself"
Degenerates to:
"Claude make me money"
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Comment by shreddit 2 days ago
This reads like someone is trying to convince me, that ai is just this good, and that the author is telling me to use more ai.
To me this sounds like: Trust me, it’s really bad, i know what I’m talking about. Just lean into it, or change profession.
Comment by zuzululu 2 days ago
So in this thread there is a mix of genuine edges that LLMs need harness and guidance with tasks that when given to a human will not perform well in that LLM is supposed to suddenly solve.
Like the thread above about financial compliance, without knowing specifics it can be very vague in language and confusing unless you apply to precedents and exact scenarios that can give you a range for what is acceptable/unacceptable. Mythos or any LLM isn't going to magically figure these edges out for you because a human would also struggle at such task.
My advice is don't let what you read here including my comment dictate your own decisions, but apply the same common sense, apply it in ways that it can help you and figure out when to use determinism vs LLM in the context of your jobs.
These lazy comments that simply try to paint a black and white categorization of AI/LLM are just noise.
Comment by crnkofe 2 days ago
Just because an AI seems to know finance/architecture/debugging doesn't devalue authors knowledge of said domain. Its essentially like your coworker having the same knowledge. There's space on the market for both. And if AI gets to the point that it can in fact replace engineers (somehow also claiming accountability?) I'd expect it to be priced competitively enough to make every manager think hard whether to buy and become hopelessly dependent on some 3rd party service or hire an engineer. The market is not a zero sum game.
Comment by rzmmm 2 days ago
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Comment by jesterson 2 days ago
You seriously believe some vibecoder can write anything remotely similar to MS Excel, which took probably thousands man-hours to create?
Comment by NichoPaolucci 1 day ago
Google sheets is free - Excel subscription is pretty much standard in many businesses and is not super expensive... Feels like the ROI just doesn't exist for most scenarios. Microsoft already DID all of the hard work, why redo it.
Comment by jesterson 1 day ago
Once they realise they can't make anything remotely like Excel, and - more importantly - like you have said, world doesn't need another Excel, we will likely get back to decent products
Comment by neta1337 2 days ago
Comment by manishsharan 2 days ago
Monopolies will continue as Token prices continue to rise.
Comment by hypfer 2 days ago
It's the exact same story that we've heard countless times by now. Hosted on a blog with just a single post. Named in a way that suggests that said blog was created for this very single post.
What is there to learn from this other than LLMs seem to be bad for some people's psyches and that AI companies need these very stories to not get their funding shut down?
Comment by Havoc 2 days ago
Would you put a "Hey i'm feeling a little useless" post on your main blog / linkedin?
Comment by gamegod 2 days ago
Comment by hypfer 2 days ago
It might be easier to adapt to this new tech when you're 19 compared to when you're 59.
But honestly, this discussion _also_ has happened ad-nauseam by now. Everything that was worth saying has been said. And then some.
People don't actually want to talk about LLMs. They want a hug. And that's fine, human and all.
But could you please just start asking for hugs instead of encoding that into vaguely profound sounding takes on AI? I'm tired of this play pretend.
Comment by visarga 2 days ago
In ML it was even worse, we had to throw away a decade of experience, made irrelevant by the new approaches. Even the most revered activity - designing new architectures - became too expensive to do in real life. Fine-tuning models is what we do now, prompting and evals. Like 90% of what we used to learn is no longer needed. And yes, LLMs can do most new ML activities too, they just need light supervision. I am sometimes ashamed to admit I have stopped coding 12 months ago and never wrote one more line, that after 35 years of coding manually. But I also think we will never be without LLMs again, so no point in preparing for 2016 in 2026
Comment by ThrowawayR2 2 days ago
(Whether any one reading this, myself included, survives in the industry long enough to reach the other side of that transition is a different question.)
[EDIT] The reason I use books as an example is that 4.2 million books were published in 2025 (https://ideas.bkconnection.com/10-awful-truths-about-publish...); 3.5m self published (with most likely LLM assisted or wholly generated) and the remainder traditionally published. (That's ~9,600 new self-published books a day.) Who actually still sells enough copies to make money in this paradigm and why offers hints as to where the software industry is likely headed.
Comment by ixeption 2 days ago
Because the reality is: A generalist can simply not guide the LLMs through the system nor can he/she verify the output. LLMs are force-multipliers and if there is nothing to multiply, it won't work.
As long we don't have AGI, humans will guide AI and if we get AGI, that's not something to even think of anymore. Software engineering was always about automation, if you want to be an artist, you better look for something else.
Comment by fuck_google 2 days ago
Comment by jchw 2 days ago
Current LLMs are still kind of shit at actually programming so many jobs do still care to have professional programmers. However, I think it's evident that if things stand where they are, employers will care to have far fewer of them, at least of highly paid highly experienced programmers. If this is the state we're in with LLM adoption when they can't help but create the same helper functions 15 times, god knows we're screwed.
So we should probably work on clearing out our debts and figuring out what else we might want to do with our time, I reckon.
I'm still going to try to do a good job. I'm still trying to learn the best effective ways to apply current LLMs (Right now I still prefer to mostly write code myself but have been using LLMs to bang code into shape via iterative code review; this is a way to exploit LLMs to make better code, especially applicable if your velocity was already good.)
Comment by gaiagraphia 2 days ago
Programming, logic, etc are skills and toolkits. The optimal state of society is everybody being able to apply them, not just the enlightened compsci caste. There was a time in the past where scribes were paid nice cash for their efforts, too.
I guess the lesson to learn here is treating a toolkit as an identity and job for life. By virturee of the essence of the job itself - if the tool gets cheaper and more widespread, it's aactually success, not betrayal.
Comment by tines 2 days ago
Comment by gaiagraphia 2 days ago
Maybe using writing as an analogy is flawed, but most of humanity having 'writing' as a core skill did enable many other things, even if oral storytelling cultures suffered at its hand.
At its core, tech is all about breaking through inefficiencies and barriers. Does it matter if people can't code python if people demand government systems be frictionless in the year 2500?
Comment by jplusequalt 2 days ago
The thing many people are ringing the alarms over is the offloading of critical thinking and knowledge work to LLMs.
Comment by gaiagraphia 2 days ago
I personally think the alarm ringers are mainly the privileged elite who are scared of their moats beyond filled in. LLMs have effectively broken down the gates of access to knowledge. In a diverse world, having more people being empowered to do more things has to be a net positive.
Comment by tines 2 days ago
Comment by gaiagraphia 2 days ago
Once people get over a few hurdles, things like: >tech's too confusing >$20 is a lot of money to spend on a subscription >AI is just a fancy search engine >AI will do all the work for me
You start unlocking a fair bit of creativity in people. I mean, all this is brand new stuff even for tech-savvy people. It'll take a while for the genuinely useful uses to dissipate out into the maasses.
Not everything has to be a billion dollar business.
Comment by grokcodec 2 days ago
1. most jobs are created by small to medium size enterprise
2. the throttle for new SMEs has been people, money and ideas, in that order
3. with LLMs being a force multiplier, fewer technical people are needed but some people still ARE needed
4. with less throttling, MORE SMEs will be created with more jobs - they will be able to do more, faster, but still need some human oversight.
Also, what is the point of software if it is not to serve human needs?
Also, in open source, community building and tending is a very human enterprise that will not be replaced by bots any time soon. So, as coding becomes commoditised, perhaps the soft skills backed by technical knowledge will be the complementary skill that increases in value.
Or, maybe it's time for me to become an itinerant folk musician.
Comment by oytis 2 days ago
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Comment by calvinmorrison 2 days ago
basically small and medium business mostly do not invest in having programmers on staff. Maybe you have an IT guy, half the time its someone whos real job is accounting, warehouse, etc and he knows printers and can type without looking
My bet is more software then ever, more dispersed and more lego like than ever.
Comment by oytis 2 days ago
Comment by jgilias 2 days ago
So, for context, two data points I have that make me want to argue for the opposite side.
First, some time ago I worked for a startup that had a B2B offering that in most cases involved integration costs to align with whatever the client was already using. We tried to eat this as much as possible, but we still had to have some “integration price” we asked. More than once we had a potential client who just couldn’t lift it. They needed the software but just didn’t have the cash buffer for the initial cost (us neither). With how things are now, we’d have onboarded all of them. And much faster than it normally took. And yes, they still would have bought our solution instead of rolling their own (see the next point).
The next point that kind of ties into the previous one if you squint. I’m in a position now where I see non-technical people building stuff with AI. _Most_ can’t. As an example, the AI says they need a database. But they don’t really know what that is, and deploying one sounds scary, so they ask the AI if they can build it without a database. And the AI happily complies and makes a “CRUD” API that “persists” data in RAM. And the AI is not being dumb here. The best, most perfect model is still an LLM at the end of the day, so it completes the context window. Sure, you could make a mod that “sticks to its guns” more, but that comes across as the model being “non-compliant” and “difficult”. Now, I’ve also seen non-technical people who have succeeded. But then they have the kind of a mindset that they could’ve been engineers in the first place in different circumstances. But also, even they build fragile monstrosities that they don’t understand.
So, going back to the first point. Our clients were deeply nontechnical for the most part. Most of them wouldn’t even have attempted to build their own. But also, getting the system up and working involved more than just code - relationships with suppliers, some legal stuff, etc.
So, I can totally see how the amount of software produced might grow exponentially leading to “pre-AI” engineers being worth their weight in gold due to that. That doesn’t exclude a painful transition though.
Comment by iso1337 2 days ago
Your local restaurant with thin margins and underpaid staff is an SME
Comment by mullenba 2 days ago
1) Train AI to replace human work. This gives you 50% quality for 10% cost. 2) Train AI to assist human workers. This gives you 200% quality for 110% cost.
Most companies will go with option 1, and it's a race to the bottom. Eventually, someone will go with option 2 and gather up all of the pieces and take over the market.
Comment by altmanaltman 2 days ago
What companies do you consult and on what
Comment by mullenba 1 day ago
Comment by i5heu 2 days ago
If you train an AI in one thing it will become better in the other.
Comment by mullenba 1 day ago
Comment by oldnewthing 2 days ago
For context, I use Claude and Codex (side projects, Max and Pro plans respectively) and Gemini at work.
The key takeaway I have is: These tools have let me climb up the value chain ladder.
Even with Claude (Max plan, Opus 4.8, High Effort), it makes tons of mistakes, assumes a lot, misses nuance and doesn't really think through every aspect of the problem from every angle. Limited memory, lack of full context and a lack of experience with real world distributed systems means that the initial solutions they offer need a lot of iteration and refinement. Just like any junior engineer would need to do.
So, you might feel that with a LLM, "this should just be an hour" but it usually becomes a 2-week exercise for me.
Which brings me to what I tell my team repeatedly: "the only person with the big picture is you." I ask them to focus on thinking, ideating, refining. Do quick PoCs, talk to customers, discern what they are trying to achive, and what you can do to solve those problems. Work with Gemini (we can only use Gemini at work) to iterate until you are comfortable with the full solution end to end with all the nuances. Then let the agent code.
This moves you up the value chain from being a programmer to a problem solver. That's what software engineering has always been about: solving problems. Don't be discouraged. In fact, I am having more fun, am more energized and loving my craft even more now with LLMs. I am able to write down my thoughts, iterate on them and create a one-pager for ideas fast and get them to my team for them to think about. Sure, probably half of them we discard because it's usually not a "now" problem but we put that in our backlog to dust off when the first customer asks for it.
Comment by jval43 1 day ago
Problem-solving can be done by an "analyst" or whatever these types of jobs are usually called.
Comment by oldnewthing 11 hours ago
Comment by leoncos 2 days ago
"Maybe I should consider transforming my woodworking hobby into a profession."
As an AI optimist, I think all forced labor should eventually be done by AI. People can then spend their time pursuing their own hobbies. Just as many people still play Go after AlphaGo appeared, because they genuinely love the game.
In the future, coding may return to being an art form. People will no longer focus on utility alone, but instead on the enjoyment of the process of writing code itself.
Comment by mahogany 2 days ago
And what sort of economic system do you imagine will be in place to support billions of people being able to just play Go all day long? How do you imagine the large capitalistic global powers transitioning into that state?
Comment by juleiie 2 days ago
If automation makes producing food so cheap that it is almost free than it is ridiculously easy to acquire it. Similarly automated construction.
The way I see it the economy will point towards outer space. That’s where most jobs and flow of economy will be.
However most people will have 10x times uplift in purchasing power compared to today so their relative poverty will be ridiculous for us to call it the poverty but they will still think they are poor and troubled.
Generally I don’t think it will be utopia for the people living in that moment but if you look from medieval times at today it looks like utopia for serfs from the past. You however wouldn’t call it an utopia because your standards grew as fast as your purchasing power.
I think that rich and poor will be separated by accessibility to anti age treatment and other bodily improvements.
The tragedy of the poors in the future will be living measly 80 year old life like a today millionaire and that will be considered lower class. Those people with wrinkles we don’t want to look at because of uncomfortable pangs of guilt.
Comment by zelphirkalt 2 days ago
Comment by i5heu 2 days ago
For example: people in developing countries throw away more food then in developed countries although it is relative to their income much more value. The reason is because they often do not own fridges, use a lot of rice which spoils fast or have difficulties with the food supply chain in other forms.
Food waste is a bad indicator for food value.
Comment by zelphirkalt 2 days ago
Great, if someone will find it in them to pay me. Real bad, if not.
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Comment by Reason077 2 days ago
This is one thing I worry about with AI-driven development on large projects. Every time someone comes along to add a feature it’s likely to lead to wheel-reinvention: dropping in a new bunch of AI-generated code rather than specialising, refining, and reusing some existing code. As the years go by this is going to lead to complex, hugely bloated code bases that are only maintainable by AI tools…
Comment by theptip 2 days ago
Don’t sell yourself short! Taste is not promptable, I suspect good taste is AGI-complete.
Especially in domains like fintech, there is a lot of accumulated wisdom, and that is what you’ll be handsomely paid for (for at least the next couple years :/ )
For example, architectural patterns, when you need bitemporality, immutable logs, CQRS, all these good patterns that can only be learned by owning years of system architecture - none of these feedback loops are in the training set.
And from a product design side, agents will just miss key concepts and you need a few words to prompt a fix - but that might represent a massive tree search optimization, or the agent on many cases would just fail to identify the requirement. These small steers feel small, but by evaporation our work has distilled down to just the extremely high value insights.
METR task time is still at weeks, doubling every 7 months; it’s years (assuming we keep riding this crazy exponential) until you hit multi-year tasks. I don’t see wisdom / Métis being solved in 2027.
All this said - I think it’s important to extrapolate forwards, if the trend continues, this will may all be true in 3-5 years. Now is the time to pre-register what metrics would make you worried, so that you can define your red lines. There will be a rapid consolidation of power and wealth if these tools continue on their existing growth trajectory.
Comment by tobyhinloopen 2 days ago
I have little to add to it, except that I agree completely. Not sure what’s next
Comment by drsopp 2 days ago
Who you belong to depend on at least two things: A) How knowledgable is the AI on what you are working on, B) How well do you wield these new tools to work better than before? (Better here can mean many different things).
Comment by tobyhinloopen 2 days ago
Comment by acureau 1 day ago
LLMs do not think. Someone has to be in the driver's seat. You're fooling yourself if you think that 99% of the population can use an LLM to write software. Or that they even have the desire to. I can cook, but I often go out to eat. I could repair a leaky sink, but a plumber will always do a better job. The specifics of our jobs are constantly changing, but our role in society will remain the same.
One-off scripts can be written with non-technical prompts, but this work was already cheap. To do anything meaningful you need to be able to reason about a hard problem as a whole and at the implementation level simultaneously. Specifying context, tasks, structure and style, data representation and control flow, these things are software engineering. You are simply writing software in natural language. It has never been about the syntax.
Comment by PeterStuer 2 days ago
Comment by ralferoo 2 days ago
In every case when I've shifted domains, the skills that have got me the job were demonstrable solid programming experience on a wide variety of systems, with only a tangential link to the new company's business. In each case, I've gone in knowing almost none of the domain knowledge, but it's never been a problem because the business analysts know that stuff and tell me what they want me to do, or it's been stuff I've been able to pick up in the first few months.
For example, when I switched to games development it was the combo of systems admin and web backend development that the company wanted, I actually used none of those skills in the first year doing what they hired me for, and pretty quickly I'd transitioned from that to become a rendering engineer, and I've now spent the majority of my career optimising shaders and game engines.
So for me, it's certainly the case that I value my adaptability across domains, and I'm not worried about having to shift to another business domain because I know I'll be able to produce whatever it is they want if there's a reasonable spec in place.
Sure, when hiring if you have 2 candidates - 1 with the exact domain knowledge you want, and 1 without, the one with domain knowledge has a head start, but in the case where nobody has that domain knowledge (or in the case of the article, it doesn't matter because AI levels the field), then I don't think it matters much. Personally, I'd rather be the person with the broadest skills and able to pick up what I need than to have been stuck doing the same thing my entire career.
Comment by 59nadir 2 days ago
Comment by enraged_camel 2 days ago
That said, Opus 4.8 and Codex 5.5 both can write code that is higher quality than your average engineer. They are not quite there yet in terms of code re-use, but I think that's a solvable problem.
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Comment by ef2k 2 days ago
I think the author downplays how much of that knowledge is used on knowing what to zoom in on, what to prompt, or what to look for.
Comment by hintymad 2 days ago
If we don't consider the potential loss of our jobs, on the other hand, isn't it great that we don't have to repeatedly do what we already know how to do? I mean, how many times can we feel the thrill by writing the same CRUD applications? How many times do we have to design the same idempotent APIs? It's also a relief that we could spend way less time figuring out mitigations or root causes when there is a production incident.
This reminds me of the scribes before Gutenberg's moveable-type printing press. They spent their life in scriptoriums copying the manuscripts by hand. They earned three times of the average income of their times. They were highly skilled labor. It required years of training, deep literacy, and a high level of domain expertise. Yet, history showed that even highly specialized expertise can be mechanically reproduced.
That appears to be exactly what LLMs are doing for us: automating the digital equivalent of manual transcription, such as setting up the repetitive boilerplate, sketching out the standard APIs, finding predictable bug fixes.
I'm not sure about others, but I have to face the same existential question today: as software engineers, where does our true value lie? Is it merely in learning, memorizing, and, reproducing patterns that others have already built. More often than not, patterns that an LLM can now piece together better and faster? Or is it in taking everything we’ve learned and applying it to solve entirely new, messy, and uniquely human problems? If our worth is tied to how well we copy the past, we are already obsolete. Our value has to shift from being human repositories of known solutions to being creators who venture into the unknown.
It is, of course, easier said than done. Hence I have likely the same level of stress as other software engineers.
Comment by prerok 2 days ago
It was about knowing how to fit the new use case into an existing code base, respecting the architecture, and sometimes rearchiteting the solution. How easy the latter was is really dependent on whether the code/arcitecture respected the low coupling, high cohesion principle.
Now, some of this can be coerced into LLMs but it takes work and careful study of the changes. Sometimes they get it right, many times they do not. So, you have to go back and forth with them. If you know what they should have produced.
SWE is far from dead. We just let too much slop into the codebase because we're overwhelmed by it and not incentivized by leadership to care. Code quality will likely drop to the point where even the leadership will notice and it will normalize again. There's nothing like a high profile customer calling out a problem that was vibe coded. It has started already and will be happening more and more.
Don't worry, the hype will be over in some time.
Comment by marekful 2 days ago
Only the best humans with insight, intuition and pattern recognition and application in non trivial scenarios can fill that gap.
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Comment by photochemsyn 2 days ago
But that’s not the real goal, is it? The goal is to inflate the stock value, take the cream off the top, and dump the whole business on the pension funds, maybe creating a too-big-to-fail scenario where the government steps in an bails out the industry as with the airlines during Covid.
This is why all the testimonials and narratives are so suspect - nobody knows what fraction of online posts were created simply to sell the narrative that LLMs are this incredible disruptive tool that will change the world, solely in order to create FOMO in the investor class.
In this particular case, I’d like to see links to samples of LLM created codebases for “PCI compliance, double-entry ledgers, escrows, reconciliation, payment lifecycles, bank transfer idempotency”. It should be easy to put an open-source LLM-generated version up on github, right? And if not, why not?
Comment by dfffsdfdsfds 2 days ago
Say you are Anthropic and want to shake up the world of law or medicine or whatever. What will you need? Product managers? You need tooling, software, infrastructure and a lot of it and quickly and you need to iterate really F fast on it as well.
If you automate the development of software itself you will enter a new era in which automation of All The Things becomes an engineering problem instead of a pipe dream. Besides software engineering there is (AI) research/science and robotics. That is the holy trinity. Crack that and it's over.
BTW: "double-entry ledgers, escrows, reconciliation, payment lifecycles, bank transfer idempotency", these all sound like solved problems and also things that are festering with accidental instead of essential complexity. I won't bet my career on those things. Now if you say something like physics or geology, that's a tougher nut to crack.
Comment by goingbananas 2 days ago
Comment by canadaduane 2 days ago
> LLMs are regression-to-the-mean machines--they pull junior developers up, and drag senior developers down. Taming them requires trading the romance of 'code as craft' for the physics of manufacturing.
The thing I don't know is: how do we decide which direction is most valuable? I can see arguments in both directions--quality vs quantity, essentially. I think there's a strong argument for the value of both:
- we need more quantity of software: for a long time, the ability to write software has been locked up, confined to a closed cabal of specialists
- we need more quality in software: we depend more and more on software in every aspect of our lives, mistakes are intolerable and should be avoided
Comment by epolanski 2 days ago
I'm lucky to work with great engineers and their productivity and code quality has become even higher. Wish that wasn't the case, but it is, and that puts also lots of pressure on myself to work more and better all the time. It's exhausting.
There are cons too, system's understanding sometimes is not as intimate, which in turn produces less "gotcha" moments that may lead to better design. There's less time to review PRs and make it a choral work.
On the other hand way more refactors and experiments can be run, so again, code quality has improved just because if you have a hunch that something could be done better, you can test it for cheap.
Comment by canadaduane 2 days ago
Comment by epolanski 2 days ago
There's more to the quality of the output, like prompts, the quality of the codebase (from which the llms learn), the documentation/harnessing, the feedback an engineer provides while reviewing multiple times (in the chat, in the diff, in the pr) etc, etc.
Comment by eranation 2 days ago
Current transformer technology will either plateau or eventually we will get to that singularity bracket. (I was a skeptic once but all signs point there)
And this means models will eventually get better.
The main human value will be
- intent (we call the shots of why and what, AI will take care of the how)
- taste (everyone now immediately identifies Claude designed landing pages, they all look the same, taste changes with time, and can’t be predicted)
- supervision, both before and after AGI, to ensure no accidental damage, no misaligned decision drift, or in the unlikely but still statistically possible case of AI going rouge
Anything else (if we don’t plateau) can be eventually achieved.
Having that said, the fact AI can do it, doesn’t mean we’ll want AI to do it.
If there will be enough demand for handmade creations (with the current anti AI sentiment I can see it having an impact at least as similar to organic food) then we have some hope.
Comment by demorro 2 days ago
I feel that I am faster and better, sure, but trusting self perception would be an absurd thing to do.
Comment by sankaritan 2 days ago
The time ahead may be rough given the transition period we're in but Software Engineering role (or whatever we will call it in 1-2 years) should not go away.
LLMs surely will be able to do most of the individual work Software Engineer needs to do, but blending them all together is a lot harder task. And once we have AI doing that too, well, I believe at that point vast majority of knowledge work can be replaced by AI too and this is not a Software Engineering problem anymore.
Comment by customguy 2 days ago
But however effective LLM may be now, shouldn't they be even better if trained on and working in really, really good codebases?
Comment by trilogic 2 days ago
We will work for the robots, steering them to steer us.
Comment by verdverm 2 days ago
We are now manufacturing intelligence (why it's artificial) and it shall be interesting to see how it shapes us individually and as a whole.
While marching on May Day, the woman next to me made the comment that Ai will force every human and humanity to reflect on what it means to be human, all of us at the same time over a short time period. What makes a human valuable beyond their work? Why do we go to other people when their expertise is at everyone's fingertip? What value are we giving, trading, or sharing in the time we have in this world?
Comment by trilogic 2 days ago
Comment by verdverm 2 days ago
I anticipate the first bifurcation to be wheat from chaff. Ai is going to do better at a job than say half the people, those who don't care about the effort they put in or the quality of their output. These people will have to come to terms with their mediocrity or blandness.
I'm still unsure what the good ideas are for when we reach a world without labor scarcity.
Comment by trilogic 2 days ago
>I work for myself and the world, not for Ai. Yourself really? Start by defining "I", "work" or "yourself"... then we may proceed to the next LOL
Comment by an0malous 2 days ago
It’s really unfortunate that AI hasn’t raised the ceiling on the space of possibilities as much as it’s raised the floor on how much can be automated, we’re all getting squeezed in the space between.
Comment by 9rx 2 days ago
Yup. Most everything we need was already built in the 1970s. Programmers have been kept busy because we've kept introducing incompatibilities into the mix, like DOS programs needing to be rewritten for Windows, and then the web, and then mobile.
And now they're being rewritten for AI platforms. It may be giving the squeeze due to being the first platform that will also help with the rewrite effort, but it is also the thing that kept the industry going. As you point out, there wasn't any work left to do until AI showed up.
Comment by gitaarik 2 days ago
Comment by mike_hearn 2 days ago
- More localism. Are you afraid of being cut off from tech by some future US government? Now it's feasible for your local culture to grow its own office suite, operating systems, Active Directory competitor etc. A less interdependent world with more competition does have its advantages.
- The building management company for my apartment sucks. Basic problems go unfixed because they appear to suffer extreme labour shortages and serious problems with flaky labour e.g. employees that just randomly go AWOL in the middle of conversations without bothering to tell anyone. A lot of the work of these employees is actually just coordinating and paying contractors in response to problem reports, something that can now be automated by AI ... but they haven't done it yet.
- I just finished assembling some flatpack furniture. Every time I do this it reminds me why IKEA dominates the market. Other furniture companies give the strong impression they don't usability test their instruction leaflets. This should and could be massively better: AR assistance during the build would be great, AI stress-testing instructions to verify they make sense would be great, AI checking every packet has the right number of components in it would be great. And there are lots of furniture companies out there. They don't all need to use a single SaaS to do this.
+ in general robots will require tons of software/models to make them do tasks usefully, especially as they lack training data.
That's just a few examples of places software could have made my life easier in just the last few weeks.
Comment by rightbyte 2 days ago
That is allready solved by FOSS.
Comment by jacobjjacob 2 days ago
I think that if you are a skilled software engineer and can adapt, you will be amplified in all aspects. If you just like writing artisanal code, you might have a bad time.
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Comment by bluefirebrand 2 days ago
What this sounds like to me is "sit and wait to get bulldozed now that your economic value to the elites is gone"
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Comment by DrewADesign 2 days ago
Honestly, the only hope that the dev field has is this all being so economically inefficient that the industry as we know it collapses after the VC subsidies run out, and we’re going to pivot towards much more reasonable interventions with local models and such.
Comment by bilater 1 day ago
Comment by DrewADesign 1 day ago
And those AI engineers won’t be making bank for very long.
Looking at basic economics— labor supply and demand within this field— is not being a ‘doomer’, it’s just not letting boundless optimism trump rational analysis. It’s not like this is the first profession to get sucked into the air intake of the machine that replaced them.
Switching from software dev to AI engineer is an achievable lateral move, and we will have a lot of surplus software devs. Few of them will have skills that will transfer cleanly enough to keep the mortgage paid. Guess what job they’ll try to move into? Unless this turns out fundamentally different from what the big companies are implying, we’re not going to see demand that isn’t wholly satisfied by the current workforce for decades. With that much expertise desperate for a job, there’s no reasonable path to keeping wages high.
Sure there might be a few tech PhDs + MBAs at the director level that are making bank, but we’re building a system that replaces us, and the industry is not going to magically stop at this arbitrary level of replacement.
Comment by rglover 2 days ago
Developers are concerned about jobs going away, but how often are they pushing back in their orgs about how AI works? In response to "are you using AI to move faster," how many are responding with "yes, but there are some things you should know..."?
If there's no pushback and just pure acceptance of stuff like tokenmaxxing, then what does anybody expect when the broader narrative around AI is that it can help a novice to grind out miracles (i.e., "holy crap, if this is what a novice can do, what can an expert do?!")?
Of course leadership is confused because (it seems) few are asserting expertise, saying "no," and stating a clear case as to why they're doing that.
The default excuse is "I don't want to lose my job" (which is a fair reaction to all of this, especially these days), but it's worth considering when/how that choice is actually just shooting future you in the foot later. It seems there's a broader trend toward compliance more than there is "you hired me to do this job properly, did you not?"
Comment by rybosworld 2 days ago
However with AI, it feels different. I have seen both technical and non-technical managers tell engineers something to the effect of "you aren't prompting correctly" if they aren't able to get the task done within some preferred time frame.
We are seeing the industry revive metrics like lines of code, number of tickets closed, bug's found (looking at you Mythos), and now even "tokenmaxxing". It's exhausting to push back on. These are all things that we know will be gamed. But the individual that brings this up might be viewed as "anti-ai" or something.
If you're an IC, I do think the best thing to do is just go along with it. Sooner or later we will see more shocked-pikachu-faced executives when they realize that engineers are spending tokens just for the sake of it.
Comment by bluefirebrand 2 days ago
I personally think the best thing to do is start retraining now so you aren't screwed by the time this all topples
Comment by notepad0x90 2 days ago
Think of it this way, who needs engineering managers, project managers, scrum masters,etc.. if they're employable then surely actual devs that can tell what good architecture is vs bad, good code vs potentially bug code is are also employable.
But the number of devs needed, that demand will obviously decline dramatically. At the same time though, there are other careers that require programming and software dev as part of your skill set. Simply integrating LLM-enabled solutions into real world workflows is a new area that's very young and immature.
Let's not act like we're suddenly in some sort of post-scarcity utopia where all problems are solved by LLMs, where tech can solve problems, there is demand for those who can use technology to do so. However, I see a lot of people attacking the technology and resisting change a lot, and to those I suggest they look up every single technological revolution and see about the fate of such people.
Comment by anupshinde 2 days ago
Opus is getting good at architecture - I need lesser "pushbacks" either because I have learnt to say the right thing or it has learnt to do the right thing - I do not know which one.
Comment by strangescript 2 days ago
Don't get me wrong, I am sure we will get to all three of these pillars, probably by next year. I am not naive.
Comment by MetaWhirledPeas 2 days ago
Or maybe it's more than that: maybe I'm off-put by people who have no need to be in the immediate AI race spending a lot of money to get ahead without asking what near-term problem they are trying to solve. It's depressing and makes the whole field more depressing. My advice for them (if they cared) would be that soon all this will be even more batteries-included, to where any dunce can dial up a production-ready app with a sentence. There's no need to rush; when it happens you'll be better off not having wasted millions trying to be on the bleeding edge.
Comment by mactavish88 2 days ago
Genuine question: what exactly is "quality"?
It's something I've been trying to understand for a very long time. It seems like it's entirely contextual, and it has both subjective and objective facets (the latter only for quantifiable things, and still entirely contextual).
Comment by mrkeen 2 days ago
If you're using the product, and you want to question or debug what's going on, you can:
* Jump directly to the single relevant part of the frontend responsible
* Likewise with the backend. The layout and naming of the code should scream its purpose.
* Once you're looking at the code, it should be trivial to run it, right now, instantly, in unit test, or cli. You shouldn't need to stand up a database to see whether your code rounds taxes the expected way.
The system contains its own checkability. You can, for instance, just sum up all the incoming money and outgoing money and see if your balance is correct. (It's not enough to have good tests today, if you're working on data that was incorrectly calculated and stored yesterday)
Comment by mmcnl 2 days ago
Quality is usually observed from a human perspective. But in my experience, codebases that humans would judge as "low quality" are actually fine for LLMs. They don't have as much trouble as we do with spaghetti code. They don't have problems with readability or obscure syntax, it's all perfectly fine for them. They don't care about indentation either.
Also it's really easy to increase the quality of the code base. You can just prompt to add unit test coverage and it will. You can prompt the LLM to handle edge cases better and it will (you don't even have to specify which, it helps, but it's optional). If you want to have better separation of concerns, just ask the LLM to have more separation of concerns and you'll have it. Documentation lacking? Just one prompt away. More robust build pipeline? You get the idea.
Comment by dahart 2 days ago
Maybe ask the same question about other things. What makes a good guitar? What makes a good chair? What makes a good airplane? What makes a good book? What makes a good song? What makes good art? Each of these has a long list of very specific goals and concerns. And to help define the boundaries, also ask what makes something bad, and what makes something mediocre.
Code quality starts with functionality. Does it perform the stated requirements? Does it have testing in place to catch breaking changes in functional requirements? That’s the basic stuff that probably isn’t part of “taste”. A lot of code quality goals center around how code changes over time, and beliefs about designing to avoid functional breakage.
For example you can ask things like does the code use minimal dependencies? Is the code organized into clean classes/modules/functions that each have a single clear role? Is the API easy to read, understand, and use? Is the API hard to misuse accidentally? Is all the code easy to read? Is there documentation, and is the documentation useful, and more than a list of contents? Is the code self-documenting? Is the code efficient, both in how it executes, and in its use of code itself? Is the code designed so that it won’t fail when someone runs it with different sized types, or a different compiler or execution environment, or on a different architecture? Is the code surprisingly elegant and fun to use?
Those are just the beginning. There are of course more layers of application-specific and environment-specific and audience-specific qualities. The good news is that quality depends on your own goals, you can decide which aspects of taste matter to you, and ignore the ones that don’t. It’s fine if your taste & goals change over time.
Comment by lanigone 2 days ago
one of myriad ways to define "quality" I use often is 'as the intersection of art and science'
Comment by hypeatei 2 days ago
Besides, you can look at the websites/apps/software you use everyday and evaluate whether or not the agentic era has produced better results. Personally, there's still plenty of bugs and annoyances. Banks still using SMS 2FA, library breakages in minor version bumps, inconsistent UIs between web and mobile, etc.
If all that was a hurdle before... because humans, regulations, or something else... then surely these magical machines that can supposedly replace us and do it much faster would've handled it by now? And they wouldn't introduce more bugs[0], would they? ;)
Comment by mschuster91 2 days ago
Well... accountability is a myth, primarily used to justify obscene paychecks for executives aka "you can't get fired for buying IBM". Basically, as long as you follow what everyone else is doing at the time, even catastrophic losses won't result in consequences. Just look at the recent AWS outages and issues - if you're a CTO and you'd have your webshop running on-prem, you'd get axed for a multi hour downtime. But since your webshop runs on AWS, you're following "industry best practice".
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Comment by gdiamos 2 days ago
I’m not planning on firing people, but I am planning on building more, using more tokens, and less app subscriptions.
One aspect of building that doesn’t erode is human values.
LLMs don’t create software with zero direction and although I do have 12 agents building constantly, I run out of attention to increase that to 100.
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Comment by cejast 2 days ago
Is it really though? Access to information is quicker, but you still need to know what ‘good’ looks like to leverage it effectively. I can prompt my way to a medical diagnosis, but I’d still want to run it by a doctor.
Comment by zmgsabst 2 days ago
One of my tests for new models is to ask about a concept I already know the mathematical model for, but as if I don’t. So far, they all answer the same way:
1. Convoluted explanations about how it kinda-sorta is common terms.
2. If you follow up with the correct mathematical term, it immediately claims that’s correct and the right way to model it.
3. If you ask it why it didn’t use that term for your question, the LLM gives some version of explaining that it tried to match your language.
I have no choice but to assume the model behaves similarly other times — and that I am largely trapped in a basin of my own ignorance, when using LLMs.
Comment by slyzmud 2 days ago
If the LLM is wrong and gives you a wrong medical diagnosis you end up hurting your health. If an LLM gives you a wrong debugging answer you've just lost 5 minutes.
Software engineering is the only knowledge work where mistakes are usually inexpensive except for data breaches. Outside for that nobody cares for bugs.
That's not true in most other knowledge jobs. If a lawyer uses AI and hallucinates something there is a legal problem. If someone vibecodes an app and crashes, it can be fixed with more AI and try again
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Comment by doright 2 days ago
It seems like new tech is something most of us have to lie down and accept as the new reality each time it's invented, barring full-scale rioting. Much as with the Cold War.
Comment by bluefirebrand 2 days ago
Yes, obviously we should not invent technology that seems likely to disrupt society out of existence
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Comment by stuxnet79 2 days ago
Now that clankers are generating full end-to-end products with an easy to understand dollar per token cost outlay the MBAs have finally gotten what they've always wanted. Good for them! But it also gives us ICs an opportunity to switch to (hopefully) more fulfilling career paths. For me personally working with computers was always more of a hobby anyway. Ideally I'd like for it to stay that way but we will have to see how the next 5-10 years shake out.
Comment by pjmlp 1 day ago
We were still coding, however most of the work was reduced to serverless, or configuration of said cloud products.
Now even coding serverless is going away with AI based orchestrations.
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Comment by dpcan 2 days ago
I recently had Cursor evaluate a huge code base that we took over. All public stuff, nothing scary security wise, but it was so convoluted that it was taking me forever to find the bugs. It was written by a person, I should add.
I did this in cursor and after one prompt using Plan, it found all the bugs, created a plan to fix them, it looked good, and I had the agent create the fix.
It took 30 minutes.
The client had this project in the hands of another company without ai tools and they couldn’t fix the bugs she told them about.
So my point is, if we are holding on to our jobs for dear life on the basis that “code quality” matters, you might as well kick down the 4th pillar. Like I said, the LLM does not care.
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Comment by lcb13 2 days ago
I see this as a negative, the whole once everyone has everything than everyone has nothing type of argument. The company I work for believes strongly in keeping humans in control and in the loop which is something I’m grateful for but at the same time who knows how long that will last. Companies are starting to get their AI bills and realizing how much this AI usage actually costs so only time will tell but I hope, for the sake of everyone, that those with the knowledge described in this article make effort to keep their brains in shape.
Comment by lovlar 2 days ago
I’ve saved up a couple of months of salary, have a couple of bootstrap ideas that I believe are within reach for me equipped with a coding agent to build. Hosting can be done almost for free. What used to take entire teams and hence millions of dollars to build can now be done a lot cheaper. If I’m lucky one of those ideas can pay my bills soon. If not I’ll go back to consulting for a couple of months.
Comment by istvan0 2 days ago
Your job is now to get the LLMs to write good code the same way you would do it if instead of AI agents, you would be leading a team of humans.
Comment by ProxCoques 2 days ago
Does this imply the future of LLMs is either that they acquire reasoning, or that they (or even engineering itself?) reach a plateau if humans are no longer writing about how to do things because the humans are using AI?
Comment by pjd7 2 days ago
Who sometimes has to deep dive & mentor a agent on solving the right problem.
Comment by sergiotapia 2 days ago
Let me just say AI is not nearly as good as the billions of dollars in marketing spend say.
We are months away from catastrophic bed shitting and the tech industry will pay the piper.
Comment by gitaarik 2 days ago
I guess they don't want just any script kiddie. And that seems very logical to me. So I don't really see the big issue. They still want experts. You just shouldn't do the same stuff you did last 10 years.
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Comment by magenta_qin 1 day ago
To me, the game has shifted from just “knowing how to code” to being really good at something specific. General software work is becoming cheaper, while deep knowledge in a niche is still hard to replace.
LLMs are speeding this up, but I don’t think they started it.
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Comment by threethirtytwo 2 days ago
Usually when a human self deludes they do it when they're identity is under threat. People would rather hold on to identity then face the truth at the cost of their identity. That is what is going on in almost every HN thread that has to do with this topic.
A good example is religion. Someone who is intelligent, but born into a religion, will have a hard time giving up that religion EVEN when presented with logical/rational/realistic arguments for why that religion is false. They will rationalize the most convenient reasoning to maintain their own identity.
I mean think about it. Even the concept of religion is obviously false. It's not science, it talks about phantasmic beings that OBVIOUSLY don't exist. It's inconsistent among different groups as in there's thousands of religions in the world and nobody thinks the obvious of the fact that if only religion can be correct, then most of the world is fundamentally believing a total lie.
Anyway, the same thing is happening with AI. AI is eroding our identity as software engineers. So you'll see rationalizations in this thread in attempt to protect that identity. The biggest excuse is LLMs are hallucinate and are often wrong and fortunately for humans... this rationalization still works because it's still very true.
However what people are not mentioning is the obvious. People are avoiding it because they are delusional. The topic of this thread is "erosion" of "software engineering career" AND that is utterly true. ADDITIONALLY the error rate of LLMs have been going down. AI in general is improving. The erosion is real and obvious.
But you will see here on this thread that people are not talking about the erosion. They are holding on to the one last rationalization that is a differentiator without ever thinking about how that differentiator is "eroding" even though "erosion" is the LITERAL topic of the conversation.
Comment by ralferoo 2 days ago
Even though you clearly believe very strongly that religion is wrong, that's not a scientific viewpoint because science doesn't and cannot disprove the fundamentals of religion. Taking it further, you can't actually prove anything is true with science, because fundamentally it is about making hypotheses and attempting to disprove them, and those that remain and can't be disproved you accept as "scientific truth". But many "laws of science", we have already disproved but we still use them as approximations because they are useful.
One final thought is that people frequently have conflicting internal world views. Some people cannot tolerate that, and require a consistent set of rules that govern their idea of the world, but the majority of people are comfortable with some degree of ambiguity in that. In general, the more rigid and coherent your worldview, the less likely you are to accept that it might be wrong, which is why many scientists devote their efforts to disproving other ideas they disagree with, rather than trying to disprove the things they believe themselves.
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Comment by AJRF 2 days ago
Why aren't the designers and PMs shipping things if these tools are so good?
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Comment by altern8 2 days ago
They're often wrong, dumb, and would turn any code into an unmaintainable mess in days if left unchecked.
I use LLMs every day because I can do less work at my job, but they suck and I would never use them for a personal project besides for very isolated and self-contained components.
It's a lot of marketing and hype.
Comment by skepticATX 2 days ago
Nobody wants to think anymore. Coworkers are now just intermediaries for their LLMs. Talking to them is just talking to the LLM - sometimes directly copied and pasted, sometimes minimal effort to conceal what they’re doing. It is so disheartening.
And the sad part is, LLMs are incredible and can enable you to do much better work if you can stay in the loop, and stop focusing only on shipping speed. But from what I have observed, very few people care to do this. Who cares about substance when middle management thinks your productivity is 10x?
Comment by hmokiguess 2 days ago
Look at prompt engineering, and how quickly it became a hot thing. Does everyone know to steer their AI well? There's only so much a harness can do for you once you start attempting to one shot with a single sentence of 4 words.
As others said, "write a Rust compiler make no mistakes" can only work if you overfit a harness to that single prompt. Nobody is going to do that.
So the part you mentioned about the knowledge you accumulated around how to know that "trade-offs between implementations" and "idempotency to prevent double-charges" is just moving to the domain of the english language and tokenizers. One could argue here that this is far more interesting as it requires you to explore deeper into how we communicate and describe the world around us. Reminds me of physics and math.
I think there's an optimism lenses to it if you can grasp it as an opportunity rather than an inevitable doomsday apocalypse.
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Comment by system2 2 days ago
I had a friend in LA who was sure that CSS and HTML were enough for her to be a "Senior frontend developer". This year she moved to Tennessee and is trying to find a rich husband because she can't find a single job.
Comment by emodendroket 2 days ago
I also would point out that, while this thought has occurred to me about the skills being commoditized, in practice I don't see that everyone's getting the same results from the tools. Not sure what's going on but that's interesting.
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Constant use of AI will probably erode that knowledge over time just because of not practising it, but successful use in complex domain needs the domain knowledge to steer it away from icebergs or hallucination or model flaws.
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Coding agents are driving up the value of architectural skills to the detriment of more specialized/technical skills.
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Comment by ChicagoDave 2 days ago
The coding and debugging part will be GenAI and possibly guardrails (harness engineering) tuned specifically for fintech, which they are also well-suited to implement.
Comment by EGreg 2 days ago
You’ve already faced this the entire time with… libraries on github.
If employers knew how much you can just use a new standard library, or ask you to “use React”, that’s a lot like asking you to use an LLM to speed things up. You also benefit from the collective wisdom of a lot of people. Do you write assembly or pixel shaders by hand?
Comment by pieceofcake 2 days ago
The ability to orchestrate intelligence is a magnificent power that few have, and while barriers to entry will be eroded, it will take time and they won't be eroded fully. This is your edge.
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Comment by amirathi 2 days ago
Are we collectively in denial? It's understandable as the craft as we knew it is being disrupted by tools that have improved at an astonishing pace.
Comment by goodrun 2 days ago
All the other white collar workers are in the same boat. A pillar of the economy is going to be destroyed with no obvious replacement in sight.
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Comment by mschuster91 2 days ago
For insurances... there's a reason why the three bullets of the plumber's brother were labelled "delay, deny and depose". You don't need a grunt to compose a denial order. Just let AI default-deny everything, most people won't have the energy left to battle the system or they'll die anyway before the claim finally sees an independent judge.
And as long as insurances aren't severely punished for denying claims that are found out to be valid later on, this dynamic will just continue as-is.
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Comment by dmos62 2 days ago
I think that in a product-centric or mission-centric perspective, effective automation is good, because it frees you up to do other important things. E.g., in gardening, time spent weeding, is time not spent surviving slug armageddon.
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Comment by mannanj 2 days ago
My challenge is seeking good resources for the business skills. I'm doing sales for a passion project for the first time, and it's teaching me a lot. I'm just confused still on why it feels so hard and why I can't find an easier way.
Comment by mschuster91 2 days ago
Sales are going to be drowned by AI soon enough. The low end is already getting yeeted by webshops, dropshippers and AI powered bots and a lot of B2C and B2B sales are shifting off of the classic representative sales model as well (towards self-service) because everyone that does not is cheaper. Basically if I have the choice between a SaaS that says "contact for a quote" and "X users => Y $/month", I'll always go with the latter option. And on top of that comes offshoring, that has gotten surprisingly good with ever increasing voice call quality.
Comment by mannanj 1 day ago
And that level of proximity, humanity, empathy maybe? That isn't being approached very well by these AI or offshore services and probably never will. Thoughts?
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In reality people who use LLMs so it does not hallucinate are the ones that just have to little knowledge to actually see when it does, because LLMs do and they always will. That is the only thing you can get with a stochastic word predictor.
Comment by awill88 2 days ago
Agents merely accelerate and equalize the playing field. And they cost money. We might be a dying breed, but we are the best operators of this technology. And if we want it, this is our moment.
Yes, get into wood working.
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'Maybe I should consider woodworking' - Fuck off.
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Comment by ozim 2 days ago
I thought about going back to college, learning Math, Statistics, advanced Machine Learning and applying for research role at a frontier lab.
That's a super silly take. As much as I did math and even course on machine learning back in the days and I was making basic perceptron in code at university - to get back and be able to do so on frontier level that's years I don't have anymore.
Anthropic is doing all that also with their LLMs so that ship sailed.
Big thing is — business people are not going to spend time prompting LLM to make an application. If they do then they will become "programmers" and we all (experienced developers) know — you touch it you own it — they (business) will not bother running or taking responsibility.
Right now on r/sysadmin there was bunch of posts where admins have "vibe coded apps" requested to be "productionized". Those business types requesting don't know yet — you touch it you own it — they think they can vibe code app drop it at ops and it is all fun and games. When people will start requesting features, start nagging about bugs, start cursing on whatever changes they introduced it will be back to "hey maybe we will just get someone to do that for us".
You might not need as deep software dev knowledge but with deep software dev knowledge you still will be faster operating LLM to build systems than non-devComment by liglam 2 days ago
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Comment by causal 2 days ago
Would love to know more about that role
Comment by Havoc 2 days ago
Anything that can't be done with a screen and internet connection is a good start
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Comment by pfdietz 2 days ago
If productivity is really getting better, regulation can force that productivity to go into increasing software quality.
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Comment by philipallstar 1 day ago
They can't be a bad deal and also the best possible option for the majority of people (as most people choose employment). Entrepreneurship increases risk, which is the tradeoff for more upside.
Comment by kypro 2 days ago
I've said this in other threads, but it concerns me how little the average person is preparing for what's coming right now... It seems people are making decisions as if their jobs and income are safe when in reality their entire profession could be gone in less than a decade. People in this comment thread saying crap like "yea, but the code LLMs write still isn't that good by my standards" are totally missing the trend. The fact LLMs are even one-shotting extremely technically difficult problems was something almost no one thought they'd be able to do by now a couple of years ago. Even I as someone who pushed back against this and thought they would become extremely competent within years am genuinely amazed at just how good they are. Trust me, regardless of your opinions, your job and career is at risk.
Another thing to understand is that if AI replaces workers in a variety of fields from SWE, accounting, customer support, graphic design, etc. Then it's likely going to be hard to fine other jobs to pivot into because when unemployment increases that significantly everyone will competing for the same limited number of jobs. Some will fine something, but most will struggle to find anything.
I hear a lot of people talking about how they'll just go into 'x' field if AI comes for their job, but realistically you'll need years of reskilling and you're assuming that in a world where other people are also losing their jobs, and where AI is touching ever more forms of work, that you'll easily be able to get a job in that other field. And I'm not saying that won't happen, just that this isn't as realistic or as safe of a bet as some people seem to think it is. You're also likely deluded about how hard it is to find work because you've been in software for the last decade.
Please, please, please, start preparing for what's coming. The economy is going to get extremely rough over the next 10 years. You need to be prepared to be without income for years, if not indefinitely.
Comment by emodendroket 2 days ago
1) How long has full self driving been just six months away? The last mile often tends out to be the hard part.
2) If the catastrophic scenario comes true where white collar work essentially disappears, what does "preparing" actually mean? There's not a whole lot I can do about that. It's like trying to make plans for what I'm going to do if I get into a coma.
Comment by kypro 1 day ago
I agree. I'm not arguing there will be no human drivers, no human coders, etc. I'm arguing there will be much, much less demand to the point where it will be like trying to obtain a career as a Hollywood actor or something. It's not that there are no actors, and if you want to be an actor realistically you might be able to find the odd job here and there, but the demand won't be there like it is today and you'll struggle to live if that's what you're betting your income on.
> 2) If the catastrophic scenario comes true where white collar work essentially disappears, what does "preparing" actually mean? There's not a whole lot I can do about that. It's like trying to make plans for what I'm going to do if I get into a coma.
Catastrophic scenarios are largely unavoidable, I'd agree with that. Some possible scenarios of AI however not catastrophic, but extremely bad – political corruption, poverty, civilisation collapse.
You can and should prepare for stuff like this to some extent. One specific risk you can prep for is attacks on critical infrastructure (energy, food, water) – and arguably these may become quite likely in the near future.
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Comment by dfffsdfdsfds 2 days ago
My non-tech friends will not suddenly be able to run servers or oversee AI systems. They will come to me with their ideas and I will turn the crank. My role will probably be named differently, something like "Intent Manager" or "Architecture Developer" or whatever but I have a strong feeling much of it will basically remain the same. The politics, the egos, the personality differences, AI has changed nothing in that regard. The jocks will not suddenly sit in front of laptops prompting Claude to debug their MQTT setups. You can say AI will do that and sure it will, prompted by me. If AI will do it autonomously then we're all fucked and I don't care about my "career" by that point. It'll be survival of the species time.
Much of accounting could have been automated. A good friend of mine has been manually entering paper receipts and whatever for well over 20 years now and his work load has actually increased. It's all automatable, but there are so. much. more. levers. Possible != will happen.
I do agree it's not the time to empty your savings account. Get ready for some rough times.
Comment by kypro 1 day ago
Depends on the scenario. If most humans are economically useless your primary risk is going to be starvation and the consequences of civilisation collapse. These are things you can prep for to some extent.
If you don't have a family then I understand not caring and letting whatever comes come. If you have people you love however, then I believe you have a duty to at least try to protect them from what's coming. But that's just the way I see it.
Also consider there are ways to prep without creating a bunker.. Can you collect and sterilise water? Can you grow/produce some food? Do you have assets that will be valuable in such a crisis (gold, etc)? Do you have a first aid kit or two? Do you have fuel/energy sources in case the grid goes offline?
I think it's probably worth thinking about some of the scenarios here and seeing which you can reasonably prep for, assuming you agree with most experts that there's a reasonable chance this will all go horribly wrong.
Comment by liglam 2 days ago
Comment by ohyes 2 days ago
If you’re not a good engineer and you don’t have the domain knowledge, your token costs will be very high for whatever gets shipped, because you won’t be able to provide the context necessary to prompt machine efficiently.
Claude will still very often hallucinate bugs, explanations, domain requirements, that have no basis in reality. It will offer fixes and improvements that are pretty standard but not optimal. This is correctable if you catch it, but you need to review every line of code and comment, because in addition to being obviously wrong, it is often very subtle in the wrongness. For every bit of “slop” there is almost microslop, the places where it just kind of confidently guesses… and doesn’t tell you… but sometimes is correct anyway.
The “problem” is there’s less low hanging fruit. You have to know a lot to add value beyond being a middleman gating the slop. You have to really pay attention to the details to find some of the errors that it’s making.
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Comment by tossandthrow 2 days ago
I have really good results getting LLMs to read documentation and work of these. This is in domains probably sparsely represented in the training data.
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Comment by fithisux 2 days ago
That's the hard truth.
Governments do dot care on our future, only on who pays them. This is the tragedy.
Comment by teleforce 2 days ago
Ironically the entire blog title is the "human in the loop", is probably the biggest counter argument for this FUD. The AI will never ever be concious and responsible, and to function and govern properly in the universe you need to be concious. AI I repeat will never ever becomes one. Not even in the popular fictional Star Wars movie franchises where you can have cute robots but they all devoid of the conciousness for the ever powerful force. Heck even the clones cannot control and balance the force, the Star Wars ultimate conscience.
>Of course, this is good for brilliant engineers that never had the chance to get deep into the domain and now have better chances at getting a job, but it's also sad to think that other brilliant engineers that spent their lives collecting domain knowledge are now competing on the same lane.
Actually overall it's definitely a very good thing for humanities. For example, currently it's very difficult to become a medical specialist and most medical students just stop at GP. But globally there are severe shortages of medical specialists for example typical cardiologists to patients ratio in developing countries is about 100,000:1, and for neurologists it's even worst.
Let's say with AI enabled tools and LLM now these GP can upgrade themselves to become cardiologists easier than before. Let's say due to AI/LLM suddenly there's a big jump of the ratio to 10,000:1 or 10x incraese and improvement in the number of cardiologists without degrading much of the quality of services. Imagine if the typical waiting time for important and necessary procedures like angiography now is reduced to merely days or weeks rather than several months or up to a year. Thus naturally the salary of cardiologists will be not be as high as now, but they still will be compensated handsomely. But as humanity do we really care the cardiologists family just live in semi-D landed houses instead of bungalows, not much me think.
Comment by snarfy 2 days ago
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Comment by deanc 2 days ago
I feel like many of my peers are beating around the bush on this topic and in denial. Even if you accept it can do a large portion of the technical part of our work, we are just supervisors at this point making sure it doesn't do any stupid shit. What is the point? Where is the fun in this? Where is the challenge? At least I have enjoyed building my career over the last 20+ years and building software, but find little joy in the work I'm doing now.
I think we're going to see a massive exodus of folks leaving the profession and a huge mental health crisis, long before the folks working in other sectors realise what's hit them.
[1] https://deanclatworthy.com/2026/02/09/the-joy-of-programming...
Comment by neta1337 2 days ago
Comment by entropyneur 2 days ago
But for me, the real catastrophe is that they took away all my motivation to learn which was the main work driver for me. Anything I can learn now, the models probably already know or will learn soon enough. Steering LLMs isn't anywhere near being a "deep" skill I'm used to having and it too is being eaten by the agentic tools faster than we learn it. The "make it good" button is coming. And I hate it.
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Comment by smetj 2 days ago
You're wrong there. You are capable of judging the outcome of the llm.
> But I don't know what to think about the long-term.
Don't you think it all has taken long enough. When I look back at the beginning of my career and compare what we do now ... I cannot shake the feeling we're essentially still solving he same problems and we have accepted that as being normal. Complexity skyrocketed, (abstraction) layers got added but the needle didn't move exponentially together with that. I think the IT industry as a whole gets what it deserves, thinking that we would remain the maze masters of the mazes we create.
> Maybe I should consider transforming my woodworking hobby into a profession...
I'm looking for 8 (affordable) oak panel doors with the exact same measurements as my current doors so I can replace them. That shouldn't be too hard to find you'd think right?
Comment by NoGravitas 2 days ago
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Comment by Aerialoo 2 days ago
It's harsh but nobody cares if a model or a human made a system.
The "good" bits are that now automating anything and providing value from software is much easier. If I have an idea or a nitpick somewhere, I can just do it, up to a limit (which is quickly rising).
I have always been a generalist and generally interested in a very wide array of things, and this period has been the most exciting in my engineering career (13y now). Learning about anything is so frictionless, looking back at my first learning experience - picking up a fat C++ book and spending days/weeks debugging, while I can romanticize that, I would never go back.
I can also now write software solo or with an extremely small team at a huge scale in comparison, and that is super exciting.
A lot of skills that took sleepless nights to acquire, they are "gone", but I still don't regret anything or wouldn't go back. Their "usefulness" has degraded, true, but this has always been the case with engineering.
We are now able to spend much more time thinking about utility rather than low level implementation and imo that's great.
We have many challenges ahead of us, and there are seriously bad things, the biggest one I have experienced is the hours are increasing and mental load is vastly increasing as well. As capacity, speed and leverage increases, so do expectations and hours, and that is probably a social problem.
Sorry for the unstructured stream of thoughts, and this is just an opinion (quite an unpopular one I believe), I hope your distress decays away for a new excitement and new opportunities.
Thanks for the article .
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There is going to be a lot of demand for people to clean it up.
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Comment by jgilias 2 days ago
I don’t think the data really supports this? Last I checked at least.
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Comment by himata4113 2 days ago
I've shared a story before that between now and 2 years ago a developer who solely relied on AI has produced the same hot garbage instancing system within the same time period. For example back in my day in 2 years I went from writing a system that struggled with few hundred players to one that could handle thousands and far beyond that. The person using AI 2 years ago wrote a system that didn't work and wrote a system 3 months ago that doesn't work.
Everyone is saying how great AI is, but they're missing that the driver is just as important AI wouldn't be able to achieve any of this without capable (often seniors) using it and giving it guidance. It's really a difference between "it works" and "it works without flaws".
Of course AI can produce things that also "work without flaws" with solved problems and someone "recreating" something that already exists with AI is not that special, a junior developer could accomplish the same thing given the time.
But I do agree that AI becoming part of performance reviews and all that is producing more productive developers which is going to drive the cost way down. In a way AI is stealing from a developers salary and giving it to the AI companies which is pretty ironic considering how cold developers seem towards artists.
Comment by aogaili 2 days ago
Currently, LLMs are nothing more than amplification tools that require significant steering. If you think your job is mainly to take input from POs or managers, translate it into if/else statements and loops, and review PRs, then you never really understood your role. Software engineering—for those who went to university and studied it—is fundamentally about complexity management and cognitive automation. People in the field, or at least those with some math background who studied software engineering properly, understand that it's all about managing complexity; current tools are nowhere near replacing a software engineer. What they call "taste" is imagination, creativity, embodiment, a more intuitive understanding of context, and yes, superior intelligence compared to current AI. However, AI and LLMs are excellent at mechanical work and mimicking human intelligence, so use them for what they are, and stop whining.
Going forward, the world is ever-growing in complexity, and automation will become widespread everywhere. LLMs just unlocked another level. So basically, cognitive work will be automated—perhaps up to 90%—until the next breakthrough (if ever). You can sit and cry, or you can learn the tools and help shape the future.
Software engineers can automate the entire economy now, including the executives, yet they just sit there whining and crying. This is a self-esteem, confidence, and identity issue more than anything else.
Comment by jplusequalt 2 days ago
What exactly are you helping shape? The volume of your employers bank account?
Comment by aogaili 2 days ago
Regarding your employer's bank account: if that is all you were doing before, then that is all you will be doing after. You are just complaining about capitalism now. The irony, is that the means of production is now in the hands of millions. Those who are crying are those who paid their mortgages with for loops..well, I think they will continue doing so, with less hubris that's all. LLMs are nowhere near replacing full engineer.
So get a grip fellow engineers.
Comment by jplusequalt 2 days ago
Both of these have been happening before the advent of LLMs
>The irony, is that the means of production is now in the hands of millions
The "means of production" means jack shit unless you have the capital to scale up rapidly
>Those who are crying are those who paid their mortgages with for loops..well, I think they will continue doing so, with less hubris that's all.
Why is it hubris to give a damn about you spend 40 hours a week doing, or to lament change when it works against your enjoyment of those 40 hours a week. God forbid people value their time in any way that isn't monetary.
Comment by aogaili 2 days ago
I'm not sure about that. I read they are making better use of AI to accelerate building their businesses. Apparently, in China, people were not looking to work in corporations anyway, so they saw AI as a means to escape them.
> The "means of production" means jack shit unless you have the capital to scale up rapidly
There are people topping music charts without even having a brand; they just produce good music. There are people automating entire marketing pipelines to minimize capital expenditure, and there are people building niches for small crowds and making a good living out of it. Not everything needs scaling.
> Why is it hubris to give a damn about you spend 40 hours a week doing, or to lament change when it works against your enjoyment of those 40 hours a week. God forbid people value their time in any way that isn't monetary.
If you enjoy writing loops and if/else statements, you can still do it, but the market won't pay you when there is a tool that does it faster. That is the nature of the domain. Have you ever thought about the jobs that software engineers automated? What do you think those people did? They adapted, learned the tools, and moved on. This is the first time we are seeing automation at this scale in software engineering, and the reaction of software engineers is exactly the same as those in other fields.
Adapt.
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Same point as the textiles industry in the 18th century..and software engineers automating other industries for the last 50 years for what? for fun?
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Comment by throwatdem12311 2 days ago
I’ve lately just turned to having Claude do a quick /review, spot checking it, doing my own review and the. firing up some web agents to make the needed changes and just ignoring the back and forth because they don’t give a fuck anyway.
Just waiting for someone to notice and ask the obvious question at this point.
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Comment by gxs 2 days ago
It’s not useless, at least not yet. And the fact that you recognize this puts you way ahead of the typical HN user constantly crying about how AI could never
What’s going to make you a good AI-augmented engineer is going to be treating AI like a good partner
Not like a genius, not like an idiot - these are extremes where all the memes on LinkedIn are generated
Like any partnership you will see it comes with bad ideas and good ideas - that it will challenge your own ideas and be sometimes wrong and sometimes right
Approaching it this way, I think my learnings only accelerated - the conversation is of much higher value because it’s a fast back and forth where I can take a moment to learn on those occasions where its ideas beat mine
You are feeling a little insecure, paranoid is not the word, and that’s a good thing
Tackle the problem for what it is: I have this sidekick now that can help me bang shit out in a fraction of the time it used to
Use the the brain that got you here to figure that out - don’t waste your time on these debating whether ai is good or not or listening to stories about how it’s stupid because one time it suggested something that wrong
You’re going to be fine, put AI to work for you
Ask me again in a few months but for now you’re fine
Comment by phase_9 2 days ago
LLMs have made domain knowledge and reasoning "cheap"; it doesn't matter if the output is lower quality - look around you for countless examples of where cheap wins and "cheap" continues to improve.
Good luck out there; we will all need it.
Comment by dominotw 2 days ago
Comment by emodendroket 2 days ago
I mean, it seems within the realm of possibility that much more productive software engineers make more and not less money.
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Comment by bob1029 2 days ago
Ownership and responsibility are the new currency for the engineering staff. Willingness to implement these tools and then own the consequences of their use is what leadership is looking for. They want their cake while they eat cake, and they will keep those around who enable something approaching that experience. Owning the side effects of LLM use is more challenging than our own natural output because of the radical volume increase and unfamiliarity with low level details. However, I argue it is still possible. It has always been significantly more expedient to poke holes in someone (something) else's work than it is to perform that same work. And, the executives know this. They leverage this capability too.
The relationship between the business and the development team has been tenuous at best. I've rarely seen a technology team that was properly subservient to the business that ultimately signed their paychecks. I every case I have personally experienced, it is was like a hostage situation where the business owners are in constant terror of the technology people screwing them over in some infinitely nuanced way they or their lawyers could never understand. Many business owners are looking at this technology as a way out of the hostage situation. They noticed a window that was left unlocked. They are going for it right now. Whether or not they will succeed in their escape is a separate matter. Whether or not them being held hostage was justified is also a separate matter. It really helps to keep these things in their own lanes.
Comment by Melatonic 2 days ago
Comment by steveBK123 2 days ago
It's still funny that 4 years into this mania the models can hallucinate basic ground truths, humans are increasingly not reviewing the output, and misusing LLMs where simple automation would suffice.
My wife does project management and works with a lot of tech leads. They came to her with a project plan deck, and she started questioning some weird dates.
The LLM was able to pull artifacts out of their issuer tracker, but it just.. hallucinated some of the dates in the process of creating a project plan deck out of the underlying data. These guys didn't care to review and notice, and who knows what else it hallucinated content wise. They were happy to send this project plan multiple levels up the food chain with hallucinated unreviewed dates.
5 years ago they would have just written a script and had none of this mess.
Comment by juleiie 2 days ago
Instead of directly: do this.
Preferably I would interweave code and AI queries where some function waits on prompt result too I think?? To avoid too big context hallucinations
I mean that would work for my use cases.
At least what I learned is that the less AI itself does in the context is the better so to say as critical LLM mistakes are approaching 100% of probability over time.
Comment by steveBK123 2 days ago
There are a lot of non-tech people using these products in this manner.
Along these lines my friend is CTO at a non-tech firm and theres vibe coding happening in one department on a project that is going to churn $1M of tokens. Head of that department told him it's OK because instead of paying a SWE annual salary, they'll just pay $1M of tokens once forever.
People don't know what they don't know about software, SDLC, support, maintenance, etc. If code was something you write once and never think about again, most tech orgs could be 75% smaller.
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Comment by lacoolj 1 day ago
We are in trouble. Not from a "no more devs" side, but from a "we only need one of you 7 to remain .." side
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Comment by kamranjon 2 days ago
This here is the crux of it I think… it’s often promoted that AI will give us the time to do the “real” engineering work of designing systems and really serving the user, but in practice all I’ve seen is further attempts at optimizing every last process with AI - just homogenizing every product and feature into slop.
It feels like every leader has been to some talking points boot camp where they’re incentivized to apply pressure to every part of their process - sort of a desperate attempt to justify the costs they’re incurring. I think we will look back at this and see how obviously short sighted it was.
Comment by mschuster91 2 days ago
Yeah. There is no future in IT any more, let's be real. Enough CEOs have drunk so much AI kool-aid that they'll lay off so many people it will become outright impossible to get re-hired again when the incompetent CEOs have gotten fired - too much competition.
The only industry that's going to give reliable employment in the future is the trades, especially the regulated/licensed ones. Gas, water, electricity, structural engineers - basically everything where there is actual human lives on the line when things go south.
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Comment by ThrowawayR2 2 days ago
That's an extremely niche specialty though. 99% of software development jobs are web frontend/backend or mobile/desktop apps and they are more at risk from LLMs.
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Comment by taffydavid 1 day ago
I see many posts like this every month, and have many conversations with friends and colleagues who think the same, and I see two trends - like this author, they all joke about becoming carpenters, or electricians. Overwhelmingly, electricians. These two professions seem to be held in special regard by software engineers craving the simple life.
I hate to burst yet another bubble, but supply and demand economics apply here too folks. We can't all become electricians and carpenters. The work isn't there. In fact there's gonna be less work there than there is now of the economy tanks and nobody can afford to build or even renovate a house anymore
Comment by monegator 2 days ago
why would i ever want to use a tool that remove the part of my job that brings me joy? Fuck productivity, we were already doing good, when we were able to actually do our job, i.e.: not wasting hours in useless meetings, or doing customer care to idiots who could not be bothered to follow instructions, which i shouldn't be doing in the first place. let the LLM do that, or let the human assisted by the LLM do that. Not my job.
Comment by dragontamer 2 days ago
The bosses are out to force people like you to use AI. And have been for months.
Maybe not your boss yet, but it swept through my office dramatically. Maybe two or three months from limited tests to now today FORCED usage of AI (people going around the office asking constantly if there's any AI that can help today).
----------
This has a few toxic effects.
1. You are not allowed to complain about code quality issues anymore. Any complaints are met with okay, we will get the AI to fix it.
No discussion, no elaboration. No one in the office is even interested anymore. AI solves everything.
2. You are basically in a position where you are forced to use AI, whether you want it or not.
3. I expect code quality at my office to drop dramatically as fewer and fewer office mates give a shit
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Comment by kykeonaut 2 days ago
Sounds like the Dunning-Kruger effect to me. "I can do this with LLMs, therefore any Sr. engineer can do this with LLMs"
Comment by mohsen1 2 days ago
Lots of jobs have been automated away and careers based on those jobs faded away in history. Maybe in near future there won’t be a ton of opportunities for software engineers in the traditional form. I’m also embracing for that future.
There were people called calculators that did manual calculations in the past. There were people hand weaving all the fabric. There were people painting cars in the factory. All those jobs are gone for the most part.
We are sitting here portending there is going to be demand for software engineers managing those engineer robots but let’s be real. The demand for software is not increasing at the rate software engineering is becoming efficient using those robots. Some (many) of us have to find new careers.
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Comment by ieie3366 2 days ago
It's crazy the crazed anti-AI people yelling with foam with their mouth that it's useless, meanwhile Claude for me at work oneshots complex bugs in a massive project with a 95% success rate. And the customer happiness survey has never been as good as it's now btw
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This is interesting because in my field of VC everyone says generalists are dying.
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Comment by shevy-java 2 days ago
For one: LLMs make a lot of mistakes. We all see that when they hallucinate search results and what not. But, possibly even more important than that, you ultimately become dependent on some big company via LLMs. Perhaps that trade-off is worth it for some companies, but I personally don't want to become dependent on these companies. I actually consider it a hostile attack from the USA, and under Trump this is even more obvious.
Another thing that sucks by LLMs is documentation. They generate a lot of crap that is useless. So that's another area where humans could be better.
Admittedly a lot of vibe-coded AI slop is also useful in some ways, but it has started to make me rather angry in general - youtube already spoiled me here. I no longer want to see ANY AI videos at all whatsoever. It just wastes my time. I am not here to empower skynet version 20.2.
Comment by emodendroket 2 days ago
Comment by jruohonen 2 days ago
:-(
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Comment by bitwize 1 day ago
This is what getting left behind looks like.
Get your thumb out of your ass and learn the damn tools.
Comment by elzbardico 2 days ago
I love that Codex added "Steer" to the chat, because I fucking pay attention to the conversation traces on coding agents and I was tired of the PANIC ESC - "No, that's not what you should do! We use a visitor to calculate all that stuff, I just need you to implement another visit method for this new Stuff according to the rules".
Nothing says you shouldn't write any code, in fact, I think that starting from a n interface and a few clients is superior to simply describing things only in natural language. Lots of refactors like extracting method, extracting interface, renaming symbol are way faster, cheaper (no tokens) and less error prone using the IDE.
When I am not sure about the concrete design to implement something, I talk to the coding agent, we discuss types, i suggest patterns, I wrote a small stub here and there, maybe a couple unit tests, but I like to activelly engage with the coding agent as if I was pair programming.
Yeah, I am not a fan of fire and forget, I see no point in being able to control agents remotelly, but nobody is complaining I am not fast enough. It is perfectly possible to have the huge productivity gains coding agents give you without entering vegetative programmer mode. You just need to engage yourself in the process.
You can describe the different categories of something, or you can go ahead and create an enum in rust, you can create a pydantic validator, a few tests here and there. The agent now has something more concrete than a natural language description, it has the compiler to check his code, it has the unit test. The flow becomes faster.
You can mention in your prompt that the agent should use AWS SDK v2 in your Go service, or you can go ahead and add the imports and the initialization somewhere in your code, the second option is a far stronger nudge towards the right direction.
The time you used to waste trying to shoehorn some stack overflow answer to your problem, now you can use to actually read the documentation of whatever you're trying to use. Go ahead, read it fully, you now have time to understand it deeply. The grunt work, the toil will be taken care of by the agent in a few minutes when you're finally feel yourself ready to move to implementation, because now you have the deep knowledge to take the best possible decisions.
There are plenty of places for you to apply your knowledge: the agent may write a correct function, but then this function does a remote HTTP call in the context of a database transaction, so, what happens when the remote http endpoint has a spike on latency? And what if the tables involved on this transaction are a hotspot in your application? You can't add all those small details in your context all the time, you can't add all single corner case and potential pitfall to your AGENTS.md.
Of course, you have to up your game. If all you ever did was completing JIRA tickets without thinking much about it, yes, there's no much you can add to the process beyond what your coding agent can do. But this is a choice.
We can either create a humongous era of slop and technical debt with coding agents, or we can use its hability to free ourselves from toil so we can finally improve our code in correctness, performance, efficiency, efficacy, security and compliance all the while keeping the business happy.
We can either use LLMs to have tens, hundreds, thousands of THERAC-25, or we can use them to liberate our time so we can do the deep work that ensures that you can't possibly deploy a THERAC-25 in production.
Comment by mrandish 2 days ago
> I'm still employed and I see myself employed for a foreseeable future. But I don't know what to think about the long-term ... Maybe I should consider transforming my woodworking hobby into a profession.
This one is notable for having all the clues pointing to why that's not the end-state this is headed toward, and yet... still not quite see it.
> I have no domain expertise that another Sr. engineer steering an LLM cannot match.
It's clear he's developed a significant competence in "steering an LLM" but the depth and value of that aren't apparent yet. After ~70 years, software development is now in the early stages of its first tectonic disruption. In the moment, these kinds of tech disruptions mostly appear to be displacing jobs but, historically, we understand the displacement is one part of a larger shift that's vertically compressing roles, functions and labor value. One steam shovel doesn't just displace dozens of pick-axe swinging diggers, it changes the roles, functions and competencies required across the entire supervision and management stack of "make tunnel through mountain" from the crew bosses and site managers to the tunnel engineers and business owners.
The author seems to be successfully navigating this shift but is still mid-disruption, so he and his management aren't yet able to see all the new competencies required or appreciate their value because it's all so new and still evolving. The rapid shock of agentic coding LLMs is especially disorienting because it's the first dramatic disruption in the field.
> review the code and steer the robot.
Historically, it's not surprising those few words are bearing so much weight and unappreciated value. Steam power was a similar shock to every field which relied on earth-moving and shaping. The big machines were quickly deployed, but it took quite a while for all the disruptions to both new and existing roles, functions and necessary competencies to be understood and appropriately valued. I imagine some top pick-axe swingers who'd graduated to being crew bosses and site foremen ended up driving or directing early steam shovels. In the first months they probably had little appreciation for the tremendous amounts of tacit new knowledge and practical expertise they accrued while keeping the steel beasts working. They were too busy being both amazed at the sheer power and frustrated by the constant scalding burns, tip-overs, blown boilers, landslides (too much weight, too little support) and cave-ins (dug too much tunnel, too fast with too little scaffolding), etc.
A big difference in the analogy is the first 100,000 steam shovels weren't sold at ~1/10th their actual cost and simultaneously delivered to job sites worldwide in six months. Software engineering is also unlike earth-moving and tunnel digging, in that the full costs and consequences aren't as visible or immediate as cave-ins and avalanches. The prices of 'steel beasts' are already going vertical with no end in sight and, over the next 18 months, I suspect "management" is about to gain a more viscerally accurate appreciation of the catastrophic costs of digging 'too much tunnel, too fast' absent the close supervision of highly skilled experts in directing all that newfound power constructively and not destructively. Between the skyrocketing full cost of operation and the consequences of poorly managed, non-expert execution - we'll start to see the broad outlines of the new equilibrium take shape.
In the steam era it over a decade for the ecosystem to understand how to even draw a new org chart accurately, label the boxes and appropriately value proven competency where it mattered. The faster the disruption, the longer it can take for all the pieces to rebalance and stabilize around a new equilibrium. Today, the author doesn't know all that he already knows and doesn't yet have the visibility to see how the new domain competencies he's rapidly accruing are creating a different kind of role that could be even higher value.
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Comment by greenbeans12 2 days ago
There's no mention of the functional elements of a software engineering role - incident response, working with auditors to define and maintain controls for internal services, handling escalated account support & fraud, working on DevEx, selling shovels (MCPing your consumer-facing APIs/services), getting on customer calls to help sell your company's X feature, managing people downwards and upwards.
The piece kinda reads like remorse over sunken costs and attachment of knowledge to personality. If you twiddle your thumbs and stay static in your role, you will be replaced. It's the differentiation that sets employees apart. And attaching yourself to functions instead of knowledge is the only way to stay afloat.