Traders place $760M bet on falling oil ahead of Hormuz announcement

Posted by Jimmc414 8 hours ago

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Comments

Comment by chopete3 4 minutes ago

>> Investors placed a bet

Aren't these more of gamblers?. There is no real asset they are investing in.

Comment by bix6 8 hours ago

Is it possible to trace this stuff back to individuals? Would love AI to do that.

Comment by Jimmc414 6 hours ago

Since it's commodities it would be the CFTC, but it would be trivial since brokers are required by law to collect KYC information on all futures trades and anyone holding positions above the Large Trader Reporting threshold (a few hundred contracts for crude) is already disclosed to the CFTC by name. 7,990 lots of Brent in a one minute window is enormously above that threshold.

Comment by jackyinger 5 hours ago

I would love it if real people did that, and then acted on what they found with moral integrity.

Comment by Grosvenor 7 hours ago

Yes, if the SEC decides to they can trace it back to specific orders.

Will the SEC decide to?

Comment by 6 hours ago

Comment by an0malous 6 hours ago

The orders are coming from… inside the house??

Comment by walletdrainer 3 hours ago

CFTC, SEC does not regulate commodities but securities.

Comment by JumpCrisscross 3 hours ago

> Is it possible to trace this stuff back to individuals?

Yes, depending where the trades were based and their market participants' KYC rigor.

As the article mentions, the CFTC "is examining a series of trades in oil futures placed shortly before major shifts in President Donald Trump's Iran war policy" [1]. If the "lots of Brent crude futures" the article mentioned traded on the Intercontinental Exchange [2], when we can almost certainly trace it back to at least some individuals.

[1] https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-probes-suspicious...

[2] https://www.ice.com/products/219/Brent-Crude-Futures/data

Comment by watwut 2 hours ago

Why AI? You want tracker that dont hallucinate.

But, you also need DOJ that prosecutes rich guy white crime, so.

Comment by refurb 4 hours ago

If this trade is based on inside information, it would be on the Iranian side since it's timed on the IRGC's X post.

That seems like a smart move by Iran. Get rich off your own announcements.