U.S. set to launch tariff refund system on April 20

Posted by tantalor 23 hours ago

Comments

Comment by hoppyhoppy2 21 hours ago

Am I reading between the lines correctly, that consumers who paid higher prices to help cover the cost of these tarriffs can expect no refunds?

Comment by JohnMakin 21 hours ago

Yes, it's effectively a transfer of wealth from the consumer to the companies above them, much like everything else these days

Comment by BoiledCabbage 20 hours ago

Yup, another failure of a policy. And again not a surprise, it was widely explained ahead of time they were illegal, but instead they were forced through under an "Emergency" situation and now enormous amount of money wasted and what's returned is being refunded to corporations even though the consumer ultimately paid the bill.

Another case of acting impulsively.

Kinda like the reason the price of oil is so high right now.

Comment by rstuart4133 11 hours ago

The true irony is 10% .. 15% of importers to the USA (Importer of Record in the lingo) are foreign entities. For them, the tariff refund is a transfer directly from the USA consumer to the foreign countries ... that Trump was trying to penalise.

Comment by happytoexplain 20 hours ago

Yup. More theft from regular Americans.

Comment by aucisson_masque 21 hours ago

That's what I wonder too.

Ultimately it's the customer who paid more for his his'goods, not the importer.

Is the us government seriously going to give American citizens money to some Chinese importers ?

Comment by parineum 18 hours ago

Plenty of companies didn't change their prices and ate the tariffs.

Comment by firejake308 17 hours ago

Right, this is what I remember seeing. Overall, inflation didn't increase much last year even after the tariffs because a lot of companies had stockpiled inventory and were able to postpone the price increase. Seems like that bet paid off, and now they should ideally be able to get their money back without increasing prices.

Obviously there were some companies who did raise prices because of tariffs, but I'm saying that on average, they must not have since inflation didn't go up by 15%

Comment by Larrikin 17 hours ago

Can you name any? Everything I purchased went up in a price, even if some of the better ones tried to hold out for a couple months.

Comment by sparky_z 13 hours ago

Scenario: A company's costs increased because of both the tarriff and some other factors (perhaps a supplier increased their prices, and the staff unionized and negotiated a salary increase, all around the same time). They probably would have eaten the cost if it was just the tarriff (who can say?), but because the total increase from all factors. was too much, they decided three months later to increase their prices to partially offset the combined loss of revenue. They then discover that sales did not drop from the increased price, so they decide to leave the prices where they are, even after the tarriffs end.

How much of the cost increase is 'because' of the tarriff? Which of their customers should they be forced to refund and how much?

Comment by skybrian 18 hours ago

If the company got overcharged for materials, you don’t get a refund either.

Unless the company wants to. Apparently, Costco has said they will be providing refunds:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/costco-pass-along-tariff-refu...

Comment by tacodestroyer 21 hours ago

Absolutely and I highly doubt those businesses will lower the prices on anything they raised prices on. Double dip FTW.

Comment by NewJazz 21 hours ago

PPP 2.0

Comment by ticulatedspline 18 hours ago

I keep seeing basically this comment over and over, which on reddit would be expected but I'm surprised how much it pops up here. I would expect the HN crowd to be a bit more cognizant of the fact that the consumer is at the end of a potentially long chain and that direct-to-consumer refunds through that chain are at best impractical and at worst literally impossible.

This study actually follows that chain:

https://www.nber.org/202603/digest/pass-through-tariffs-evid...

In this case the importer was losing money post tariff so was the exporter. the consumer was actually paying more than the tariff (due to margin).

making each actor "whole" in even this short, cut-and-dry chain would be extremely difficult not even counting the overhead of each entity issuing refunds. A product with multiple importer inputs and more hands in the pot would be nearly impossible to even trace and you'd have to be able to definitively construe that each change in price at each step was directly related to tariffs, maybe someone in the chain was already going to raise prices some and then didn't raise any more on top of the tariff thus the tariff increase was absorbed by a pre-planned price hike.

Did people get charged more? yes. Are you getting your money back, no. does it suck? yes. Is it some conspiracy to make importers more wealthy? no. Were more than just end consumers harmed? yes! Is this fair? fuck no, but truly fair is impossible so might as well do something rather than let the corrupt government keep their ill gotten gains.

Comment by true_religion 17 hours ago

It’s not really impossible to do refunds to consumers. Businesses wouldn’t have to be compelled to cooperate either. If they are suitably enticed, they will go through their own records, find rationale for higher prices because of tarries and submit individual records to the government.

Businesses are already basically forced to do KYC on direct to consumer imports so they have the information on file.

It’s only for the wider market, where items aren’t imported to be sold direct, that it’s harder to tell because as you said there is a chain of actors.

Comment by 13 hours ago

Comment by mindslight 15 hours ago

The government acted illegally, and those illegal actions caused harm to consumers. It is reasonable for consumers to expect to be made whole in some manner. It would also be nice for the government administrators and agents that flagrantly broke the law to end up facing repercussions as well. But of course both of these are essentially pipe dreams in our broken down society.

Comment by kshacker 21 hours ago

I wonder how it works for small folks like me. My brother sent me something from India and put a value on it (should not have). The government charged me a few bucks, but then fedex charged me something on top as their fees. Now if they charge me to return the fees, I will still end up losing money :) since the fedex fees were more than the government fees

It is not a big amount, but I am sure there are lots of people with similar stories.

Comment by bayff 23 hours ago

Didn't some guy buy up a bunch of the rights to tariff refunds at discount hoping for this?

Comment by 0x_rs 20 hours ago

Cantor Fitzgerald, run by (Commerce Secretary, Epstein neighbor, and island visitor) Lutnick's sons. It should be noted Lutnick himself was a big proponent of tariffs to replace "some" income taxes -- just not your own.

>Public reporting indicates that Cantor has offered companies the opportunity to trade their legal claim to a future tariff refund in exchange for twenty to thirty percent of the duties the company paid.

https://fortune.com/2026/03/07/winners-supreme-court-tariff-...

https://www.finance.senate.gov/ranking-members-news/wyden-wa...

Comment by extraduder_ire 22 hours ago

It's more than one guy, there's a whole industry around it.

I think the most famous one is a person working in government or closely related to someone who is. (drawing a blank on the name right now)

Comment by drawfloat 22 hours ago

…your Commerce Secretary.

Comment by dh2022 17 hours ago

Is his son to be precise.

Comment by comrade1234 21 hours ago

From what I understand a tariff refund system has been in place for decades, as companies dispute tariffs they were charged and get refunded.

Comment by ivraatiems 23 hours ago

It's nice to see them actually complying with the Supreme Court's decision instead of just ignoring it and telling them to enforce it.

Comment by notamario 17 hours ago

You mean the SC ruling that moves money from the US treasury to the aristocracy class?

Comment by csouers 21 hours ago

Oh, don't worry. They'll find a way to screw over the consumer.

Comment by bmitc 20 hours ago

This does screw over the consumer, or at least doesn't reverse the screwing of any consumers.

Comment by rasz 17 hours ago

only because Lutnick's sons will be main benefactors.

Comment by 20 hours ago

Comment by dh2022 17 hours ago

Our country’s gargantuan fiscal deficit is about to get even larger. At what point will lenders get sick of subsidizing the US government?

Comment by platevoltage 17 hours ago

I wonder how much Lutnick's net worth will increase when this goes online.

Comment by Freedom2 20 hours ago

This forum told me that other countries would pay the tariffs for the end customer. Was that incorrect, and if so, how could this forum get it wrong? What other confidently stated truths could also be wrong?

Comment by xboxnolifes 13 hours ago

I have not once, in any thread on this entire site, seen that opinion get stated without strong challenges to the claim.

Comment by parineum 18 hours ago

> What other confidently stated truths could also be wrong?

Well, for starters.

> This forum told me that other countries would pay the tariffs for the end customer.

Comment by pjc50 20 hours ago

For "this forum" read "the small but persistent crowd of pro Trump tech bros".

Comment by despera 23 hours ago

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